ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... 140 hours a few hundred miles E of Daytona and moved NW from 120-144... Thumb ridge building??? Looks like a zombie face???

[SunnyThoughts]

Getting awfully close to the East Coast there. whew

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF 00z run: Today vs yesterday

[northjaxpro]

Considerably more ridging from 96-120 hour period.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ens bias/corrected still a Clipper.

[SouthFLTropics]

Big difference in Euro 12z and 00z at 132/144 range. Huge difference from yesterday's 00z. What a difference 24 hours can make.

[Bocadude85]

Big difference in the 0z Euro, much farther west. Had this not moved NE from 48 to 72 hours this would be very close to Florida. Will be interesting to see if that NE movement occurs.

[SouthFLTropics]

Big difference in the 0z Euro, much farther west. Had this not moved NE from 48 to 72 hours this would be very close to Florida. Will be interesting to see if that NE movement occurs.

NE movement will be key as well as when it turns back to the NW. Florida and the rest of the East Coast fate rest with how strong that high is going to be. Considering how strong it's been in recent months, I think there is reason to be concerned.

[northjaxpro]

It appears the 120 hr - 144 hr. period will be the timeframe in which Matthew will potentially make its closest approach to the SE US coast before being nudged either up the East Coast or outto sea hopefully.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... 168 hours and moved NNE from 144- 168... Zombie face is really scary now and getting bigger...

[chaser1]

Wow? That's a jump west! At 120 hours the Euro appears to be approx. 100 miles west of that point from the prior runs. It's not unreasonable to consider that the extended stall earlier today may have allowed some additional time for that ridge to its north, to begin building in and westward some. Looks like distinctly less toughing as well with the advancing cut-off low around days 4-5. This run would possibly bring significant tropical storm conditions to some central and north Florida coastal counties, not to mention a heightened risk to N. Fl., Georgia, & the Carolinas

[SunnyThoughts]

wow @ hour 168 that's way too close hope it makes the turn east quick

[SouthFLTropics]

The difference at 168 from yesterday's 00z and today's are just stunning. That's a HUGE model change on one of the worlds best models in just 24 hours.

[jason1912]

LOL

[WHYB630]

168hrs: totally different steering...what happened??

00z EC:


00z GFS:

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... 192 hours and just off NC coast and moved NE from 168-192... Big difference from 12z, just when I thought the CONUS was off the hook...

[chaser1]

That's a BIG shift west at 144 hours!!! If this were to verify, the Outer Banks is looking like "ground zero"

[SouthFLTropics]

I think New England is in trouble this run...that trough slid right past Matthew to the north and didn't pick him up.

[SouthFLTropics]

It's really weird to be in October and not see these troughs sliding further SE. It's almost more like early September.

[Bocadude85]

So the GFS and the EURO shifted west in the mid term.. Just when I think we are finally in the clear here in Florida the models start trending west again...I wonder if the west trend will continue...it seems to me that Matthew has consistently moved west of the model forecasts.