ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here it is:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

That's the 2pm not 5pm cone, I assume it will get updated very soon.

fixed

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory is in:

The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend.[/quote}

I haven't seen the new graphic yet.

Here it is:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

NVM it is the old graphic: Edit.....

Still not updated. And my quote was directly from the NHC discussion.

[AxaltaRacing24]

TWC just showed the cone. Includes east to central Florida.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here it is:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

NVM it is the old graphic: Edit.....

Still not updated. And my quote was directly from the NHC discussion.

I put the tweet there with the map....

[gatorcane]

NHC discussion snippet:

While there
remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long
range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has
increased

[jlauderdal]

they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon

[AdamFirst]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

Land interaction possibility between Haiti and Cuba + NHC traditionally conservative with longer range intensity forecast

[TheStormExpert]

Here it is:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

That's the 2pm not 5pm cone, I assume it will get updated very soon.

I believe that is it cause it shifted west over through the middle of Grand Bahama Island.

[AutoPenalti]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

Looks like they are very conservative when it comes to forecasting intensity.

[EquusStorm]

Frame by frame, looking even more impressive. Eyewall might swipe Haiti if it keeps jogging east of due north, but flooding will rewrite the history books across the whole island. I'm sure the answer is very close and easily found, but any idea when the next recon is going in?

[Evil Jeremy]

TWC just showed the cone. Includes east to central Florida.

About 5 minutes ago the TWC shows a half-completed graphic that I assume was supposed to be the updated cone, but was just forecast points against a blue background, no Florida, no cone, no anything lol.

[gatorcane]

[jlauderdal]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

intensity forecasting is a real mystery..assume at least one category higher although it doesnt really matter as far as preps go if it comes to that

[caneseddy]

:eek:

Well that will open a lot of eyes down here. Prepare the media hype to commence now.

[Evil Jeremy]

they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon

Nothing will ever top the 180 degree cone flip of Debby.

[AutoPenalti]

they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon

Nothing will ever top the 180 degree cone flip of Debby.

Wow, really?

[Raebie]

:eek:

Well crap, Charlotte is even in the cone now.

[Alyono]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

LGEM says so

[Weatherboy1]

they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon

Yes, that is a big shift but I think it makes all the sense in the world given that it wasn't just one or two unreliable models indicating a closer pass by the coast. The overnight modelling will be key in terms of whether we get a TS or Hurricane watch in my opinion. Going to be an interesting several hours of model watching for sure!