ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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KWT
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4501 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:54 pm

The NHC had no choice but to shift west as the models have nearly all come west from their 00z positions.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4502 Postby NWFL56 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:56 pm

Weatherguy173 wrote:
NWFL56 wrote:
Alyono wrote:deaths have been reported already in Haiti

Do you have any links to news/wx?

The Jamaica Observer, UPI
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestne ... ipped-seas
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/ ... 475489471/

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4503 Postby fci » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:56 pm

jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon


Yes, that is concerning.
They are generally conservative in their track adjustments.
For my location it is 70 miles closer than at 11:00 AM.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4504 Postby ronjon » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:57 pm

From NHC Discussion:

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4505 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:58 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon


Nothing will ever top the 180 degree cone flip of Debby.
i blocked that hot mess from my brain cells...be interesting to see what they do at 11, much will depend on the next gfs,,,if we get enough of a west trend they will need something from key west all the way up towards the space coast at least...yikes thats a big chunk of real estate..last big challenge like this was sandy
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4506 Postby fci » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:58 pm

caneseddy wrote:
gatorcane wrote::eek:

Image


Well that will open a lot of eyes down here. Prepare the media hype to commence now.


And the "hype" SHOULD start now.
People need to be ready since Watches of some type are forthcoming tonight or tomorrow.
Nothing wrong with "hype" here.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4507 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:58 pm

Florida: :crazyeyes:


(Get all hurricane information from official sources)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4508 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:00 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?


Land interaction possibility between Haiti and Cuba + NHC traditionally conservative with longer range intensity forecast



They also extended the "Major" classification out to 2 pm Friday, as opposed to lowering it after Thursday.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4509 Postby Cainer » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:01 pm

The new track also has Matthew tracking almost directly over Nassau as well which would be a devastating hit.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4510 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:01 pm

Alyono wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?


LGEM says so


Sarcasm? lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4511 Postby birddogsc » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:02 pm

fci wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon


Yes, that is concerning.
They are generally conservative in their track adjustments.
For my location it is 70 miles closer than at 11:00 AM.


Yeah... they normally "drift" the cone - choosing to make significant changes over the course of at least two "full" updates. I wonder if they felt they were behind the curve (so to speak) in terms of moving it west? Of course, with the Euro moving west, they had to move the cone.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4512 Postby ronyan » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:02 pm

The current NHC track forecast shows pretty minimal land interaction between Haiti and Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4513 Postby NWFL56 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:03 pm

sponger wrote:It looks like the Western tip is going to get the eye. Anyone have any idea on storm surge potential?

UPI stated "up to 11 ft in Eastern Cuba and Southern Haiti, 4 ft in Jamaica and up to 15ft in the Southeastern Bahamas".
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4514 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:04 pm

fci wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon


Yes, that is concerning.
They are generally conservative in their track adjustments.
For my location it is 70 miles closer than at 11:00 AM.


yep and we were about 250 from the center this morning and thats been cut in half and i stated earlier today if you have a track within 100 miles you better prepare for a direct hit and even thats cutting it close..for wilma i only put panels on the west and south side of the house( i have 63 panels), it was my "hurricane panel strategic deployment plan" because i knew the winds were never going to hit the east side of the house...anyway my wife and daughter said never again, panels go up everywhere as 70 mph winds were pounding the house...btw, the plan was perfect but the net result is all panels go up if needed, not worth verbal abuse...i still think any landfall is north of palm beach and thats unlikely...angle just seems to sharp for a direct hit in broward or south
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4515 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:05 pm

My thoughts and prayers are with Hati and Jamaica
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4516 Postby Blinhart » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:08 pm

So most likely the next full advisory we will have all of the Peninsula in the cone and watches and warning on the US. We might be seeing our first Major Hurricane Landfall in years and at one of the worse places to make landfall (Miami/Ft. Lauderdale). That will cause billions of dollars in damage and hundreds if not thousands of deaths.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4517 Postby Blinhart » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:09 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
fci wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon


Yes, that is concerning.
They are generally conservative in their track adjustments.
For my location it is 70 miles closer than at 11:00 AM.


yep and we were about 250 from the center this morning and thats been cut in half and i stated earlier today if you have a track within 100 miles you better prepare for a direct hit and even thats cutting it close..for wilma i only put panels on the west and south side of the house( i have 63 panels), it was my "hurricane panel strategic deployment plan" because i knew the winds were never going to hit the east side of the house...anyway my wife and daughter said never again, panels go up everywhere as 70 mph winds were pounding the house...btw, the plan was perfect but the net result is all panels go up if needed, not worth verbal abuse...i still think any landfall is north of palm beach and thats unlikely...angle just seems to sharp for a direct hit in broward or south


I hope you guys stay safe and heed all warnings and evacuate if it looks like it will be coming your way. Get your house and boat secured and head on up north to Alabama.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4518 Postby Blinhart » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:13 pm

Also it is scary if the eye does skirt in between Haiti and Cuba that means there will be nothing to break him down and the mountains will probably just make him expand in size, that is a very scary scenario.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4519 Postby ObsessedMiami » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:14 pm

All I wanted was a nice breezy day off of school. Be careful what you wish for
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4520 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:14 pm

Cainer wrote:The new track also has Matthew tracking almost directly over Nassau as well which would be a devastating hit.
it would be big but lets be clear about the bahamas...the construction is excellent, better than the united states by a long shot, they have weathered many major hurricanes and the recovery is quick and efficient...this isnt haiti..its well developed with excellent infrastructure...unfortunately there will be major effects
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