ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
The NHC had no choice but to shift west as the models have nearly all come west from their 00z positions.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Weatherguy173 wrote:NWFL56 wrote:Alyono wrote:deaths have been reported already in Haiti
Do you have any links to news/wx?
The Jamaica Observer, UPI
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestne ... ipped-seas
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/ ... 475489471/
Thanks!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon
Yes, that is concerning.
They are generally conservative in their track adjustments.
For my location it is 70 miles closer than at 11:00 AM.
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My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
From NHC Discussion:
2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.
2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
i blocked that hot mess from my brain cells...be interesting to see what they do at 11, much will depend on the next gfs,,,if we get enough of a west trend they will need something from key west all the way up towards the space coast at least...yikes thats a big chunk of real estate..last big challenge like this was sandyEvil Jeremy wrote:jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon
Nothing will ever top the 180 degree cone flip of Debby.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
caneseddy wrote:gatorcane wrote::eek:
Well that will open a lot of eyes down here. Prepare the media hype to commence now.
And the "hype" SHOULD start now.
People need to be ready since Watches of some type are forthcoming tonight or tomorrow.
Nothing wrong with "hype" here.
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My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Florida: 
(Get all hurricane information from official sources)

(Get all hurricane information from official sources)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
AdamFirst wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?
Land interaction possibility between Haiti and Cuba + NHC traditionally conservative with longer range intensity forecast
They also extended the "Major" classification out to 2 pm Friday, as opposed to lowering it after Thursday.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
The new track also has Matthew tracking almost directly over Nassau as well which would be a devastating hit.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Alyono wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?
LGEM says so
Sarcasm? lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
fci wrote:jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon
Yes, that is concerning.
They are generally conservative in their track adjustments.
For my location it is 70 miles closer than at 11:00 AM.
Yeah... they normally "drift" the cone - choosing to make significant changes over the course of at least two "full" updates. I wonder if they felt they were behind the curve (so to speak) in terms of moving it west? Of course, with the Euro moving west, they had to move the cone.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
The current NHC track forecast shows pretty minimal land interaction between Haiti and Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:It looks like the Western tip is going to get the eye. Anyone have any idea on storm surge potential?
UPI stated "up to 11 ft in Eastern Cuba and Southern Haiti, 4 ft in Jamaica and up to 15ft in the Southeastern Bahamas".
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
fci wrote:jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon
Yes, that is concerning.
They are generally conservative in their track adjustments.
For my location it is 70 miles closer than at 11:00 AM.
yep and we were about 250 from the center this morning and thats been cut in half and i stated earlier today if you have a track within 100 miles you better prepare for a direct hit and even thats cutting it close..for wilma i only put panels on the west and south side of the house( i have 63 panels), it was my "hurricane panel strategic deployment plan" because i knew the winds were never going to hit the east side of the house...anyway my wife and daughter said never again, panels go up everywhere as 70 mph winds were pounding the house...btw, the plan was perfect but the net result is all panels go up if needed, not worth verbal abuse...i still think any landfall is north of palm beach and thats unlikely...angle just seems to sharp for a direct hit in broward or south
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
So most likely the next full advisory we will have all of the Peninsula in the cone and watches and warning on the US. We might be seeing our first Major Hurricane Landfall in years and at one of the worse places to make landfall (Miami/Ft. Lauderdale). That will cause billions of dollars in damage and hundreds if not thousands of deaths.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:fci wrote:jlauderdal wrote:they came a degree further west than i thought they would..that is a big shift for the nhc to make in one package, cant recall such a big change even that far out in time...this sets the stage for watches and warnings to start going up soon
Yes, that is concerning.
They are generally conservative in their track adjustments.
For my location it is 70 miles closer than at 11:00 AM.
yep and we were about 250 from the center this morning and thats been cut in half and i stated earlier today if you have a track within 100 miles you better prepare for a direct hit and even thats cutting it close..for wilma i only put panels on the west and south side of the house( i have 63 panels), it was my "hurricane panel strategic deployment plan" because i knew the winds were never going to hit the east side of the house...anyway my wife and daughter said never again, panels go up everywhere as 70 mph winds were pounding the house...btw, the plan was perfect but the net result is all panels go up if needed, not worth verbal abuse...i still think any landfall is north of palm beach and thats unlikely...angle just seems to sharp for a direct hit in broward or south
I hope you guys stay safe and heed all warnings and evacuate if it looks like it will be coming your way. Get your house and boat secured and head on up north to Alabama.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Also it is scary if the eye does skirt in between Haiti and Cuba that means there will be nothing to break him down and the mountains will probably just make him expand in size, that is a very scary scenario.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
All I wanted was a nice breezy day off of school. Be careful what you wish for
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
it would be big but lets be clear about the bahamas...the construction is excellent, better than the united states by a long shot, they have weathered many major hurricanes and the recovery is quick and efficient...this isnt haiti..its well developed with excellent infrastructure...unfortunately there will be major effectsCainer wrote:The new track also has Matthew tracking almost directly over Nassau as well which would be a devastating hit.
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