ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

Land interaction possibility between Haiti and Cuba + NHC traditionally conservative with longer range intensity forecast

They also extended the "Major" classification out to 2 pm Friday, as opposed to lowering it after Thursday.

That's not surprising. I don't see why conditions won't be favorable to support a solid Cat 3 in the Bahamas as the storm nears Florida.

[MGC]

Significant shift west to the track. I imagine the panic buying will commence shortly along the east coast. Plenty of time, hopefully the track follows the western edge of the cone. I think there could be a huge disaster in Haiti from the rain. Hope the people there are ready.....MGC

[supercane4867]

Recent SSMIS pass indicates the EWRC is likely near completion with inner eyewall collapsed and the outer eyewall begin tightening which should allow enough time to strengthen before landfall

It seems Matthew is not only to be the first CAT5 in the Atlantic since Felix but also may very well be the first landfalling CAT5 since Felix





Plenty of extreme heat contents up into the Bahamas even HIGHER than what Matthew has encountered so far

[sma10]

So most likely the next full advisory we will have all of the Peninsula in the cone and watches and warning on the US. We might be seeing our first Major Hurricane Landfall in years and at one of the worse places to make landfall (Miami/Ft. Lauderdale). That will cause billions of dollars in damage and hundreds if not thousands of deaths.

I'll agree with you on the billions of dollars. I think the death count is wildly overstated.

[robbielyn]

It looks like the Western tip is going to get the eye. Anyone have any idea on storm surge potential?

This Sun Sentinal article claims 10 feet. Of course its title was, "
Hurricane Matthew approaches Haiti, as risk to Florida declines"


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... story.html

That seems low for a slow moving Cat 4 with the island in the right quad.

that was at 6:28am before a lot of the models shifted west

[sponger]

20 hours until the eye reaches Haiti. Going to be a long night there.

[psyclone]

OMG at that 5 pm advisory and the massive probability uptick that accompanied it . You'd think there would be some watches for the east coast sometime tomorrow. Even if they're TS watches keep in mind that's what was initially issued for the Tiburon peninsula and look at the pickle they're in now. Conversely things got better for our friends in Jamaica. Obviously watching trends is important and in the US case the trend is definitely NOT our friend..

[Blinhart]

So most likely the next full advisory we will have all of the Peninsula in the cone and watches and warning on the US. We might be seeing our first Major Hurricane Landfall in years and at one of the worse places to make landfall (Miami/Ft. Lauderdale). That will cause billions of dollars in damage and hundreds if not thousands of deaths.

I'll agree with you on the billions of dollars. I think the death count is wildly overstated.

You got to remember there are hundreds of homeless and other people whom can not leave Miami/Homestead/Ft. Lauderdale that will get caught in this storm. This will be the reason there will be many deaths.

[Tireman4]

Significant shift west to the track. I imagine the panic buying will commence shortly along the east coast. Plenty of time, hopefully the track follows the western edge of the cone. I think there could be a huge disaster in Haiti from the rain. Hope the people there are ready.....MGC

Yep. Agreed. Their infrastructure is just not up to standards. My.thougt and prayers go out to they and Jamaica tonight.

[alan1961]

Great shots of Matthew as the space station adjusts it camera nicely

[Blinhart]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

Why are all these models in intensity pretty much saying this will be a TS in 5 days, I just don't see it unless it goes in land and stays in land.

[Blinhart]

I think this storm will be retired by the time everything is said and done. A very impressive storm and looks to be getting bigger, which will cause even more damage.

[robbielyn]

Significant shift west to the track. I imagine the panic buying will commence shortly along the east coast. Plenty of time, hopefully the track follows the western edge of the cone. I think there could be a huge disaster in Haiti from the rain. Hope the people there are ready.....MGC

Euro mean keeps it off fl coast hope that verifies. I dont care how rich or poor one is, a hurricane like that can destroy everything you own including your life.. I dont think people can prepare for something so destructive in haiti. The floods and mudslides will kill people no matter how prepared they are unfortunately. Prayers go out to them.

[centuryv58]

Significant shift west to the track. I imagine the panic buying will commence shortly along the east coast. Plenty of time, hopefully the track follows the western edge of the cone. I think there could be a huge disaster in Haiti from the rain. Hope the people there are ready.....MGC

Euro mean keeps it off fl coast hope that verifies. I dont care how rich or poor one is, a hurricane like that can destroy everything you own including your life.. I dont think people can prepare for something so destructive in haiti. The floods and mudslides will kill people no matter how prepared they are unfortunately. Prayers go out to them.

I won'thold my breath on averages of the Euro runs.

[northjaxpro]

Well folks, it is extremely serious times NOW. I am here in Jacksonville and the news media outlets are now into overdrive and rightfully so. This is going to be b one hell of a week . WOW. This is real folks. The real potential here and all along the eastern peninsula and SE U.S. coast of being impacted by a major hurricane!!!!.

[tgenius]

The lines for gas at Costco are already insane. Only going to get worse!!

[dukeblue219]

I think this storm will be retired by the time everything is said and done. A very impressive storm and looks to be getting bigger, which will cause even more damage.

Oh, definitely. I'd say there's a 100% chance this is the last Matthew, even if it zips OTS with zero US damage.

[TheStormExpert]

Will there be any new data in the 18z model runs?

[KBBOCA]

Storm Carib has a notice posted that hurricane warnings now discontinued for Jamaica - downgraded to TS warnings. A bit of good news for Jamaica, but it still looks dire for Haiti and the DR. Praying.

TCUAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

At 500 pm EDT, 2100 UTC, the government of Jamaica has discontinued
the Hurricane Warning, and has replaced it with a Tropical Storm
Warning for the entire island.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Michele B]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

Interesting. My local TVmet (he's the only one who saw Charlie's turn toward Peace RIver, so, he's the only one I TRUST!) just said Matt COULD BE DOWNRADED and not even still be a hurricane (but a very strong TS as it passes by FL, or skirts it .

I thought that was very odd.