ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4581 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:16 am

Trends. You can see the biggest issue with the GFS has been speed.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4582 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:41 am

caneman wrote:Bastardi is on crack. The euro has had wide swing variances. Other than their little WSW swing, I don't see much accuracy.


Needless to say the 06z misses west of Hati ...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4583 Postby Evenstar » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:49 am

znel52 wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.


Agreed. I think there are just a lot of ppl from FL on this forum. They are concerned rightfully so but once the storms pass FL the thread usually slows down lol. I am definitely keeping an eye on this as it will be very close to my neck of the woods. Carteret County NC. We stick out like a sore thumb so us and the outer banks take a lot of landfalls from storms.


Likewise for us, your neighbors to the North in Tidewater of Virginia.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4584 Postby stormreader » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:52 am

meriland23 wrote:a lot of people in SFL are panicking, I know this cause a friend of mines cousin lives there and told me she, and a lot of others are packing up already. When confronted with her fear, the only thing I could assure her was that, while preparation is good, keep in mind they track is still very unsure, that it could be FL, SC, OTS, etc. In saying that, I made sure she had the NHC site to reference from, not the Weather Channel

But preparations should begin now. The best case scenario, I would say, is a near miss. That being the case, people in Fl should be thinking right now what they would do if Mathew arrives in full force. Because with the uncertainties, this is a very real possibility.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4585 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:54 am

Also whlst the ECM did do a good job with the WSW bend, there were plenty of other models also showing a similar bend to the WSW.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4586 Postby HurricaneEric » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:58 am

meriland23 wrote:a lot of people in SFL are panicking, I know this cause a friend of mines cousin lives there and told me she, and a lot of others are packing up already. When confronted with her fear, the only thing I could assure her was that, while preparation is good, keep in mind they track is still very unsure, that it could be FL, SC, OTS, etc. In saying that, I made sure she had the NHC site to reference from, not the Weather Channel


I'm in SFL too and have heard some people worried but haven't seen much panic yet. Still too early to ignore or panic over for our area.

Though this westward trend and stronger ridge does not look good.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4587 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:07 am

Evenstar wrote:
znel52 wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.


Agreed. I think there are just a lot of ppl from FL on this forum. They are concerned rightfully so but once the storms pass FL the thread usually slows down lol. I am definitely keeping an eye on this as it will be very close to my neck of the woods. Carteret County NC. We stick out like a sore thumb so us and the outer banks take a lot of landfalls from storms.


Likewise for us, your neighbors to the North in Tidewater of Virginia.



To be fair, Florida is in fact the 1st US state Matthew will encounter. Hit or miss. So rightfully there should be a ton of FL posts right now. Not sure why this has to be explained.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4588 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:09 am

Image
06z GFS... Closest approach to Florida... W from 00z...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4589 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:09 am

Let's keep the discussion to model runs and move everything else to the discussion thread please.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4590 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:12 am

I'm in SFL and pretty attuned to things like that and I haven't seen any panic. Tv mets seem in a wait and watch mode. Publix called my son in to prepare for prep shopping but it was a normal night.
Odd that people are ready to pack up but for sure be aware and get ready for anything
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4591 Postby stormreader » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:13 am

meriland23 wrote:a lot of people in SFL are panicking, I know this cause a friend of mines cousin lives there and told me she, and a lot of others are packing up already. When confronted with her fear, the only thing I could assure her was that, while preparation is good, keep in mind they track is still very unsure, that it could be FL, SC, OTS, etc. In saying that, I made sure she had the NHC site to reference from, not the Weather Channel

Also, going to state what should be obvious, this is going to be a very serious October hurricane in the immediate vicinity of Fl. If the ridging is increasing some, and Mathew is feeling those effects as it comes around it, the it should be nestled in a very stable environment. No reason to think that even after land interaction with Cuba or Jamaica you wouldn't have at least a 120 mph storm near S Fl, and depending on the track and very possible restrengthening in the warm waters off Fl, it's not unreasonable to think that you could have a land falling 150 mph hurricane in Fl. And it would be in all likelihood larger than either Andrew or Charley.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4592 Postby RL3AO » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:19 am

I know it's a small sample size, but the Euro has been by far the most accurate model in terms of track so far. Yes, it's switched around a bit, but you need to remember that the GFS has been way too fast with the storm. Four days ago it already had Matthew entering the Bahamas by now.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4593 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:24 am

Never said this before, but I am frightened by the latest GFS model run I've seen: the one that sends a massive intense storm from NC to the NE. :eek: I've never witnessed anything quite like it before, other than perhaps Super Storm Sandy in 2012 which had some similarities.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4594 Postby meriland23 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:24 am

what are the chances it reaches cat 5 status again you think? Or will this likely dwindle down from now on
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4595 Postby Sunnsandsc » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:44 am

Hi All. My first time posting. I was wondering what your thoughts are on Matthews possible impacts on Charleston SC? Been a long time since SC has seen a hurricane with the intensity of Matthew. Keeping those in the path of this storm in my prayers.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4596 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:44 am

RL3AO wrote:I know it's a small sample size, but the Euro has been by far the most accurate model in terms of track so far. Yes, it's switched around a bit, but you need to remember that the GFS has been way too fast with the storm. Four days ago it already had Matthew entering the Bahamas by now.



So that means EC has been doing a great job for <120hrs. But beyond that, everyone did s__tty :double:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4597 Postby Rail Dawg » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:47 am

Matthew currently heading due W past 3 hours.

Few models mentioned this...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4598 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:51 am

STOP THE BACK AND FORTH.

Take discussion to the discussion thread.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4599 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:06 am

brunota2003 wrote:A 936mb hurricane making landfall directly over MHX (Newport/Morehead City, NC NWS office) right at 00Z (they are an upper air site.........) at hour 138. Starting to get into the "Uh oh" realm...


Would be similar to the NHC having to issue forecasts on Andrew while being under the gun.

As someone who could feel the effects of Matthew, this is Saturday according to the GFS correct?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4600 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:23 am

Repost

The model thread needs to be kept technical. If you intend to post here it needs to be directed with evidence from models and model runs, preferably with images. With lots of interest and concerns we need to weed out data from general opinion and derailing of the thread. It's not helpful to the reader listening to people argue back and forth when they are looking for sound information. Opinons and concerns should be posted in the discussion thread.
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