ATL: MATTHEW - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5509
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4601 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:25 am

I don't recall anyone posting or mentioning this model but historically I recall NHC giving it serious consideration. If anyone has access, could they post the FSU Superensemble?
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4602 Postby RL3AO » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:25 am

Posts in this thread should fall into one of these categories

1) A post about a model run -- preferably with an image.
2) A substantial comment about the model run that includes more than a short quip. Should include sound meteorological and scientific evidence.
3) Asking a question about a model run(s)
4) Answer said question about a model run(s)
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20023
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4603 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:34 am

chaser1 wrote:I don't recall anyone posting or mentioning this model but historically I recall NHC giving it serious consideration. If anyone has access, could they post the FSU Superensemble?


I think it's both good and private $$$ so it can't be posted.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

WHYB630
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:19 am

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4604 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:39 am

12z GFS has started. At 30hrs it is slower than 06z run.
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6442
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4605 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:51 am

At hour 66 of the 12Z GFS, the ridge to the N is weaker than it was on the 6Z GFS.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4606 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:52 am

12z GFS is definitely slower and ridging doesn't appear as strong so far.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4607 Postby meriland23 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:55 am

shifting W at 78 hrs
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4608 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:57 am

meriland23 wrote: shifting W at 78 hrs

Nope, it's not shifting west it's just slower by 6hrs.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4609 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:58 am

12z GFS through 90 hours, track looks almost identical to 06z, just slower.
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

HurricaneEric
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:06 am
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4610 Postby HurricaneEric » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:02 am

I have a question for any of the pro-mets or anyone that may understand: why are some of the models expecting a NE movement towards Haiti instead of a completely north heading? What would cause it to go east? Ridge weakening?
0 likes   
Irene '99, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Irma '17 (storms I remember my area getting hurricane force winds/gusts).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4611 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:03 am

102 hours...beware the thumb ridge. Still on track with 06z but slower. Thumb ridge building over NC.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6442
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4612 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:03 am

12Z GFS: has a sfc low NE of Bermuda whereas 6Z GFS didn't.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4613 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:07 am

114 hours...maybe an escape route opening up to the NE.
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20023
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4614 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:09 am

12Z GFS run so far

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6442
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4615 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:09 am

Per 114 hour of 12Z GFS, it looks likely to me it will go east of the 6Z GFS track. Let's see.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4616 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:09 am

Very bad run for the Bahamas. Looks like a close call setting up with the Carolinas too.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4617 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:13 am

12z CMC runs into eastern tip of Cuba at 48 hours and is nearly due north out of the Bahamas. Develops 98L and creates an escape hatch.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2990
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4618 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:17 am

AdamFirst wrote:12z CMC runs into eastern tip of Cuba at 48 hours and is nearly due north out of the Bahamas. Develops 98L and creates an escape hatch.


The 12Z Canadian is about 150 miles southwest of the 0Z at 84 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016100212&fh=6
0 likes   

User avatar
p1nheadlarry
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
Location: SR County FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4619 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:18 am

GFS takes the ECMWF route OTS? Not this again..
0 likes   
--;->#GoNoles--;->.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6442
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4620 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:20 am

p1nheadlarry wrote:GFS takes the ECMWF route OTS? Not this again..


I think this is tied to the 12Z GFS' weaker ridge to the north, which I think is tied to the low NE and later E of Bermuda, which was not there on the 6Z GFS.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 29 guests