ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I don't recall anyone posting or mentioning this model but historically I recall NHC giving it serious consideration. If anyone has access, could they post the FSU Superensemble?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Posts in this thread should fall into one of these categories
1) A post about a model run -- preferably with an image.
2) A substantial comment about the model run that includes more than a short quip. Should include sound meteorological and scientific evidence.
3) Asking a question about a model run(s)
4) Answer said question about a model run(s)
1) A post about a model run -- preferably with an image.
2) A substantial comment about the model run that includes more than a short quip. Should include sound meteorological and scientific evidence.
3) Asking a question about a model run(s)
4) Answer said question about a model run(s)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
chaser1 wrote:I don't recall anyone posting or mentioning this model but historically I recall NHC giving it serious consideration. If anyone has access, could they post the FSU Superensemble?
I think it's both good and private $$$ so it can't be posted.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
At hour 66 of the 12Z GFS, the ridge to the N is weaker than it was on the 6Z GFS.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12z GFS is definitely slower and ridging doesn't appear as strong so far.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
shifting W at 78 hrs
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
meriland23 wrote: shifting W at 78 hrs
Nope, it's not shifting west it's just slower by 6hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12z GFS through 90 hours, track looks almost identical to 06z, just slower.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I have a question for any of the pro-mets or anyone that may understand: why are some of the models expecting a NE movement towards Haiti instead of a completely north heading? What would cause it to go east? Ridge weakening?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
102 hours...beware the thumb ridge. Still on track with 06z but slower. Thumb ridge building over NC.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12Z GFS: has a sfc low NE of Bermuda whereas 6Z GFS didn't.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
114 hours...maybe an escape route opening up to the NE.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12Z GFS run so far


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Per 114 hour of 12Z GFS, it looks likely to me it will go east of the 6Z GFS track. Let's see.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Very bad run for the Bahamas. Looks like a close call setting up with the Carolinas too.


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12z CMC runs into eastern tip of Cuba at 48 hours and is nearly due north out of the Bahamas. Develops 98L and creates an escape hatch.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
AdamFirst wrote:12z CMC runs into eastern tip of Cuba at 48 hours and is nearly due north out of the Bahamas. Develops 98L and creates an escape hatch.
The 12Z Canadian is about 150 miles southwest of the 0Z at 84 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016100212&fh=6
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
GFS takes the ECMWF route OTS? Not this again..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
p1nheadlarry wrote:GFS takes the ECMWF route OTS? Not this again..
I think this is tied to the 12Z GFS' weaker ridge to the north, which I think is tied to the low NE and later E of Bermuda, which was not there on the 6Z GFS.
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