ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

Is the chatroom down. I got the site but it doesn't see me.

http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k

[Blinhart]

My question is if the GoM is suppose to be out of the picture, why would the G-IV be dropping so many dropsondes in the GoM in all their flights. Is the NHC thinking the troughs are not as strong as they thought?

[SunnyThoughts]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

My question is if the GoM is suppose to be out of the picture, why would the G-IV be dropping so many dropsondes in the GoM in all their flights. Is the NHC thinking the troughs are not as strong as they thought?

Nope, they are just gathering data from the surrounding environment for model injection.

[chaser1]

Well, just to make things interesting: The Dept. of Agriculture has put a quarantine on the Florida Keys for anyone trying to arrive or leave with their pets. A full on checkpoint at MM 106 due to the Screwworms that have been found in the lower Keys. Hope there's no evacuations coming for us lol.

What the hell???????? I never even heard of those?? Could you imagine that whole disaster with Dept. of Agriculture trying to enforce THAT quarantine "if" Matthew (or any future storm) were barreling down on the keys? Crazy stuff folks! Only in Florida though

[Blinhart]

Pointing to the NW.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yup. Thats the thinking. Cause Matthew is going slower then thought. The trof or parts of it will pass by.

[KBBOCA]

Came across a pretty cool graphic from a NC Weatherman comparing the GFS & Euro runs. Not sure if this is the 18Z GFS. I think so.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/783040642444328960
[/Tweet]

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the inner eyewall is about to collapse into the new eye of the outer based on IR. Recon will be interesting.

[Blown Away]

Argue the E component is gone, looks due N... Maybe a wobble...

[fci]

Interesting. My local TVmet (he's the only one who saw Charlie's turn toward Peace RIver, so, he's the only one I TRUST!) just said Matt COULD BE DOWNRADED and not even still be a hurricane (but a very strong TS as it passes by FL, or skirts it .

I thought that was very odd.

The NHC has been under-forecasting Matthew's intensity for days. I'm sure that they don't want to overly alarm folks in the Carolinas just yet, while there is still considerable uncertainty in the track. Conditions look quite good for Matthew to maintain Cat 3-4 strength through the Bahamas to the Carolinas. As for weakening to a TS, that's quite unlikely.

Concerning Florida - no one is forecast hurricane conditions there, only a brush with tropical storm conditions. No need to panic, just be ready in case the winds are toward the upper end of TS conditions vs. the lower end.

Sounds like you are pretty certain there will be landfall in Florida, is that correct?

I can't speak for wxman, but the way I read it, he is saying NO landfall in Florida with only a brush with TS conditions.

[chaser1]

Yup. Thats the thinking. Cause Matthew is going slower then thought. The trof or parts of it will pass by.

Boy, I hope we dont start seeing a legit NNW motion right now. That would NOT be good news for Florida - and an increased threat for far S. Florida. I dont see any turn happening right now though. Any wobble that might occur is probably more due to the vorticity max swinging or looping the eye around slightly. I'll say this much; cloud tops are pretty impressive and that eye is really contracting again

[ThetaE]

What exactly is making the 18z showing a HARD right turn near NC, as opposed to an Irene style storm as shown in the 12z? (I put this in the discussion thread to avoid too much blabbering in the models thread)

I was already actually typing an analysis on this intricacy you brought up, so thanks for asking!

Also, a quick disclaimer: I'm not actually 100% sure on a lot of this (always learning stuff!), but this is my best shot at explaining what happens.

The biggest impact on Matthew's eventual track through the NC area appears to be the approaching trough. The trough's exact angle and deepness will have significant impact on how sharply/when/where Matthew's turn to the northeast will occur. A flatter (weaker) and more positively tilted trough (southern part of the trough lags behind the northern part) will kick Matthew out to sea more, whereas a deeper and more negatively tilted trough could allow the turn to be more gradual, or- in the worst case scenario- not cause Matthew to turn at all (I think this is especially likely if the trough slows down a lot or stalls over the central US, which will help funnel Matthew in and/or phase with the trough). Again, this is my rough understanding of what's happening, so it may not be 100% correct.

EDIT: I forgot to mention, the trough still isn't fully over land as of now, which means there's still a good deal of uncertainty with exactly how it evolves. Once it moves ashore and we can start sampling it better (especially since weather balloons are being launched) the exact track of Matthew through/near NC should become clearer.

[psyclone]

I'd be surprised to see actual Hurricane Watches tonight. Only reason is that S. Florida is likely looking at Thursday night (or early Fri) impact. Not posting Hurricane Watches until early Tue. permits forecasters the luxury of having one more model run for the purpose of verification. Face it, this whole "westward ho" thing has come on pretty recent (this a.m), so I don't think they'd want to jump the gun in the event that models swing back a little bit more eastward. Providing NHC feels that they can provide at least 48 hr.s Watch time, perhaps followed by Warnings as soon as 12 hours later ahead of significantly deteriorating weather, than that might better insure their not putting an awful lot of State and local government resources into motion until really certain of their forecast.

I see your logic chaser but think due to the sheer magnitude of threat and the possible migration of millions of people, they'd want to get an early jump with a hurricane watch. This is a CAT 4 storm - nothing to be too safe about.

Watches should be issued with a 48 hour lead for TS winds...no more/no less. I would expect watches to start out south and be stepped up north over time since the threat will be coming from that direction. As for sheer magnitude, just go back to the biggie (Katrina) and look at the first hurricane watch...it was for southeast LA but didn't include coastal MS...not because the area wasn't threatened but because it wasn't within the 48 hour window like areas to the south were... of course they were under watches soon thereafter. that's exactly how it should work.

[CourierPR]

Pointing to the NW.[/quote]

I just saw your post, Blinhart, after viewing the satellite photo. I recall hearing a meteorologist once speaking about storms tilting in the direction they will be headed.

[terrapintransit]

WOAH!!!

[RL3AO]

What exactly is making the 18z showing a HARD right turn near NC, as opposed to an Irene style storm as shown in the 12z? (I put this in the discussion thread to avoid too much blabbering in the models thread)

the trough is a lot weaker this run than it was at 12Z

It really is difficult not to trust the Euro when there are large synoptic differences around day 5.

[alan1961]

Just looked on flight radar and noticed one of the Noaa planes out near Matthew obviously looks like
taking readings etc.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just looked on flight radar and noticed one of the Noaa planes out near Matthew obviously looks like
taking readings etc.

Yeah, AF mission is in route at this time also.

[tolakram]

Is the chatroom down. I got the site but it doesn't see me.

http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k

Works for me. Try again?