ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ThetaE]

The 12z GFS ends up quite a bit SE of the 06z run. Really, the only difference was that the GFS had a low (Nicole?) to the NE again, weakening the ridge. If that wasn't there, this would've been a similar run. I wouldn't feel comfortable at all putting faith into the genesis of a weak tropical system that's, at best, hit-or-miss on the models six days out.

[SouthFLTropics]

What we need to take from all of this is that the situation beyond 72 hours is very fluid at the moment. The slow and continued westerly movement of Matthew is complicating things further. Any info on G-IV flights north of Haiti and Cuba to get a better idea on the ridge to go into the models?

[Alyono]

FFS UKMET

LOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 74.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2016 0 13.9N 74.3W 988 51
0000UTC 03.10.2016 12 14.2N 74.3W 982 61
1200UTC 03.10.2016 24 15.3N 74.3W 979 57
0000UTC 04.10.2016 36 16.7N 74.1W 977 59
1200UTC 04.10.2016 48 18.3N 73.8W 978 59
0000UTC 05.10.2016 60 19.9N 73.8W 974 64
1200UTC 05.10.2016 72 21.4N 74.5W 976 64
0000UTC 06.10.2016 84 22.5N 75.7W 975 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 96 23.7N 76.9W 969 65
0000UTC 07.10.2016 108 25.0N 78.2W 967 68
1200UTC 07.10.2016 120 26.6N 79.4W 955 74
0000UTC 08.10.2016 132 28.2N 80.4W 953 69
1200UTC 08.10.2016 144 29.9N 80.9W 966 60

[Evil Jeremy]

What we need to take from all of this is that the situation beyond 72 hours is very fluid at the moment. The slow and continued westerly movement of Matthew is complicating things further. Any info on G-IV flights north of Haiti and Cuba to get a better idea on the ridge to go into the models?

I don't think we have had a G-IV flight in the last day or so. Next one I see scheduled is for tomorrow evening (G-IV FLIGHT FOR 04/0000Z) and the NHC has G-IV flights scheduled every 12 hours following that one, per the recon plans.

[WHYB630]

12z 174hrs: looks like 00z, hitting eastern Canada with cat2-cat3 strength
Imagine if blocking is stronger/appear earlier by the time, it may hit NE US. Still have to watch closely

[tolakram]

Catching up with some images

[tolakram]

[Lighthousewatch28]

Since models have trended somewhat further west, does that increase the risk of a hurricane landfall in South Carolina?

[NDG]

12z CMC finally decided to start shifting westward closer to the Euro and GFS at 72hr-96hr

[Bocadude85]

FFS UKMET

LOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 74.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2016 0 13.9N 74.3W 988 51
0000UTC 03.10.2016 12 14.2N 74.3W 982 61
1200UTC 03.10.2016 24 15.3N 74.3W 979 57
0000UTC 04.10.2016 36 16.7N 74.1W 977 59
1200UTC 04.10.2016 48 18.3N 73.8W 978 59
0000UTC 05.10.2016 60 19.9N 73.8W 974 64
1200UTC 05.10.2016 72 21.4N 74.5W 976 64
0000UTC 06.10.2016 84 22.5N 75.7W 975 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 96 23.7N 76.9W 969 65
0000UTC 07.10.2016 108 25.0N 78.2W 967 68
1200UTC 07.10.2016 120 26.6N 79.4W 955 74
0000UTC 08.10.2016 132 28.2N 80.4W 953 69
1200UTC 08.10.2016 144 29.9N 80.9W 966 60

That's a westward shift from the UKMET, looks to show a Florida landfall?

[WHYB630]

(06z GFS)
Nothing is a good analog for Matthew, hahaha
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

[sma10]

FFS UKMET

LOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 74.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2016 0 13.9N 74.3W 988 51
0000UTC 03.10.2016 12 14.2N 74.3W 982 61
1200UTC 03.10.2016 24 15.3N 74.3W 979 57
0000UTC 04.10.2016 36 16.7N 74.1W 977 59
1200UTC 04.10.2016 48 18.3N 73.8W 978 59
0000UTC 05.10.2016 60 19.9N 73.8W 974 64
1200UTC 05.10.2016 72 21.4N 74.5W 976 64
0000UTC 06.10.2016 84 22.5N 75.7W 975 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 96 23.7N 76.9W 969 65
0000UTC 07.10.2016 108 25.0N 78.2W 967 68
1200UTC 07.10.2016 120 26.6N 79.4W 955 74
0000UTC 08.10.2016 132 28.2N 80.4W 953 69
1200UTC 08.10.2016 144 29.9N 80.9W 966 60

That's a westward shift from the UKMET, looks to show a Florida landfall?

UK is very similar to Gfs thru 60 hrs - in fact is actually a little East of it at that point. But from there on, it moves much further west at a much slower speed. Clearly, UK anticipates much deeper ridging in SW Atlantic.

Possible? Yes, but not sold. I'll wait for today's Euro to see if it agrees.

[SFLcane]

You can see 12z UKMET here. So CMC and UKMET trended a bit westward. For me in south florida watching them closely will determine how crazy wx gets here.

[AdamFirst]

How much weight can you put into the UK?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/782620921727098880

[SouthFLTropics]

I've heard many times that so goes the UK the Euro sometimes follows. We shall see starting in about 35 minutes. Any thoughts whether this info about the UK/Euro relationship is true?

[sma10]

How much weight can you put into the UK?

It is supposedly one of the "big 3" but in truth tends to lag behind Euro/Gfs.

I mean at this point the only models in its camp are the BAMs.

[jlauderdal]

How much weight can you put into the UK?

It is supposedly one of the "big 3" but in truth tends to lag behind Euro/Gfs.

I mean at this point the only models in its camp are the BAMs.

you have to take the ulmet seriously, doesnt mean its right but you cant just discount its solution...gfs and euro offer something a bit different..if it was going to come west there is no reason why the ukmet couldnt be the leading indicator..will see

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro is running...looks to have more ridging than yesterday's 12z had.

[Frank2]

Per the GFS graphic a few posts ago, no ridging is evident when the system is off the NC coast, so that conflicts with the trend. Truth if the system remains intense, more likely a poleward track than if it was down in the Cat 1-2 range...