ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 291832
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 10 20160829
182230 2409N 08527W 9223 00794 0092 +227 +204 058015 015 018 000 00
182300 2407N 08526W 9225 00793 0092 +226 +206 058015 016 018 000 00
182330 2405N 08525W 9225 00791 0091 +227 +206 054014 014 018 000 00
182400 2404N 08524W 9225 00790 0089 +229 +204 052013 014 015 000 00
182430 2402N 08523W 9225 00791 0089 +228 +205 051013 013 016 000 00
182500 2400N 08522W 9225 00788 0088 +227 +204 050012 013 015 000 00
182530 2359N 08520W 9225 00789 0087 +227 +204 049011 011 015 000 00
182600 2358N 08519W 9228 00785 0085 +229 +207 041011 011 014 000 00
182630 2356N 08518W 9225 00786 0084 +230 +205 036010 011 015 000 00
182700 2355N 08516W 9223 00787 0084 +227 +206 036010 010 016 000 03
182730 2354N 08514W 9227 00782 0083 +226 +208 037010 010 015 000 00
182800 2353N 08513W 9225 00783 0082 +225 +208 033011 011 015 000 00
182830 2352N 08511W 9227 00781 0082 +226 +209 029011 011 015 000 00
182900 2351N 08509W 9225 00782 0081 +227 +208 031011 011 015 000 00
182930 2351N 08507W 9227 00781 0081 +225 +212 025011 012 015 000 00
183000 2350N 08505W 9226 00782 0081 +226 +208 025010 010 016 000 00
183030 2349N 08504W 9227 00781 0081 +227 +208 025010 011 015 000 00
183100 2348N 08502W 9226 00781 0080 +226 +209 025011 012 015 000 00
183130 2347N 08500W 9231 00777 0081 +225 +212 347006 007 012 001 00
183200 2347N 08458W 9227 00779 0080 +224 +210 341005 006 009 000 03

[wxman57]

also clearly from the resolution i have.. even the Euro is about 75 miles to far to the NW initially..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... seus_1.png

Have to be careful with that low-res data. I measure the 12Z EC to be about 27nm west of the 12Z position. The center actually jumps east to be over the 15Z position at the 3-hr forecast point. Pretty darn close.

I try with what I have

I was playing around with my workstation to see if I could plot pressure in smaller increments than .1mb. Well, I got down to .00001mb and there were levels less than that. Nine became a solid filled circle. ;-0

[Hurricane Andrew]

Have to be careful with that low-res data. I measure the 12Z EC to be about 27nm west of the 12Z position. The center actually jumps east to be over the 15Z position at the 3-hr forecast point. Pretty darn close.

I try with what I have

I was playing around with my workstation to see if I could plot pressure in smaller increments than .1mb. Well, I got down to .00001mb and there were levels less than that. Nine became a solid filled circle. ;-0

Not fair. LOL

[NDG]

Just like earlier ASCAT showed, the recon confirms that the NW quadrant of TD 9 is fairly weak.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Have to be careful with that low-res data. I measure the 12Z EC to be about 27nm west of the 12Z position. The center actually jumps east to be over the 15Z position at the 3-hr forecast point. Pretty darn close.

I try with what I have

I was playing around with my workstation to see if I could plot pressure in smaller increments than .1mb. Well, I got down to .00001mb and there were levels less than that. Nine became a solid filled circle. ;-0

That makes me hope you get a day off sooner than later (thats getting a little OCD)

[Aric Dunn]

Have to be careful with that low-res data. I measure the 12Z EC to be about 27nm west of the 12Z position. The center actually jumps east to be over the 15Z position at the 3-hr forecast point. Pretty darn close.

I try with what I have

I was playing around with my workstation to see if I could plot pressure in smaller increments than .1mb. Well, I got down to .00001mb and there were levels less than that. Nine became a solid filled circle. ;-0

that would be fun

[chaser1]

Imma go with 1004 for the first vortex message, and 1000 for the last.

If you're right, than i'll be REALLY curious to see how the 0Z models begin to handle future intensity.

FWIW, HRRR has this system down to 998 by 18 hours, tracking mostly WNW. Now. HRRR accuracy is somewhat...uncertain at 18 hrs, but it is food for thought.

Until this system has expanded and can better generate an even greater level of outflow, i'm just quite there with HRRR. I think it would be right on the mark otherwise though. I just dont trust the still evident westerly shear and the potential for today's organization and convection to suddenly go "poof" lol. No doubt this system is taking on a more healthy look today but until I see it's west quadrant beefed up a little, than I'm just not going down any model's rabbit hole for the time being.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherFlowCHAS/status/770330083290644480

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 291842
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 11 20160829
183230 2348N 08457W 9228 00779 0081 +223 +212 030005 006 012 000 00
183300 2349N 08455W 9233 00775 0080 +223 +211 038006 007 010 000 03
183330 2348N 08453W 9220 00784 0080 +224 +208 035006 006 014 001 03
183400 2347N 08452W 9229 00777 0080 +224 +208 010003 004 012 000 00
183430 2347N 08450W 9235 00771 0078 +227 +206 349003 004 014 000 03
183500 2346N 08448W 9226 00778 0076 +229 +205 003005 005 014 000 03
183530 2347N 08446W 9229 00775 0076 +228 +215 342004 005 013 000 00
183600 2347N 08444W 9225 00777 0073 +233 +209 325006 007 012 000 00
183630 2347N 08442W 9229 00778 0075 +230 +210 320005 006 014 002 03
183700 2348N 08440W 9231 00774 0077 +225 +213 316004 005 015 003 03
183730 2350N 08439W 9232 00773 0076 +228 +210 054004 005 015 001 03
183800 2352N 08439W 9228 00775 0077 +224 +211 060005 006 012 000 00
183830 2354N 08439W 9227 00776 0077 +225 +209 056008 009 012 000 03
183900 2355N 08440W 9232 00775 0079 +225 +209 053010 011 014 003 03
183930 2354N 08441W 9229 00779 0079 +228 +209 056008 009 /// /// 03
184000 2353N 08441W 9230 00774 0078 +224 +210 063008 008 013 000 00
184030 2351N 08439W 9227 00776 0078 +222 +212 056005 006 013 000 00
184100 2350N 08438W 9228 00775 0077 +226 +209 053005 006 012 000 00
184130 2348N 08437W 9230 00774 0077 +226 +209 034006 007 010 000 00
184200 2347N 08435W 9229 00774 0076 +226 +208 010006 006 009 000 00

Have to go to class now.

[Hammy]

Recon seems to be indicating multiple vortices.

[Aric Dunn]

center slightly exposed just north of convection.

[NDG]

Per recon, LLC is a bit elongated E-W.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I thought the weaker the system the farther west it will go & the stronger the system the more it will move in a pole ward movement. A rock can you or other prompts clarify this for me please

[tarheelprogrammer]

lol it is struggling like any storm in the western Atlantic that threatens land in recent years. Good news maybe it will keep it weak like the GFS is showing. Still have to watch for rain but not as big of a threat if it is moving fast. We shall see what it does later today and if convection maintains. Looks can be deceiving I suppose.

[chaser1]

I thought the weaker the system the farther west it will go & the stronger the system the more it will move in a pole ward movement. A rock can you or other prompts clarify this for me please

That is generally a correct statement (unless you're dealing with a deep tropical cyclone with a rock hard high pressure ridge to its north)

[stormlover2013]

hurricanfloyd a trough is picking it up, only way it goes west is it misses the trough

[chaser1]

lol it is struggling like any storm in the western Atlantic that threatens land in recent years. Good news maybe it will keep it weak like the GFS is showing. Still have to watch for rain but not as big of a threat if it is moving fast. We shall see what it does later today and if convection maintains. Looks can be deceiving I suppose.

Moving fast might mean a storm is caught up in a fast flow ahead of a trough AND less time to strengthen. In some cases that might well mean less of a threat. Then again, it could mean something like Hurricane Charlie barreling down on you - Big Threat!

[Sanibel]

This is definitely organizing. Watch the trend. ASCAT is solid.


Disclaimer: Use only official sources for tropical weather information.

[tarheelprogrammer]

lol it is struggling like any storm in the western Atlantic that threatens land in recent years. Good news maybe it will keep it weak like the GFS is showing. Still have to watch for rain but not as big of a threat if it is moving fast. We shall see what it does later today and if convection maintains. Looks can be deceiving I suppose.

Moving fast might mean a storm is caught up in a fast flow ahead of a trough AND less time to strengthen. In some cases that might well mean less of a threat. Then again, it could mean something like Hurricane Charlie barreling down on you - Big Threat!

I was talking about the rain threat.

[chaser1]

Too early still for a center fix/pressure?