ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

12Z init

[toad strangler]

12z Euro Initialized

[Frank2]

But that agrees with yesterdays discussion about the low in the Ohio valley and how much it will erode the ridge - on WV loop, the trough over the GOM is making good progress eastward, so perhaps why the NHC has remained with the northward track...

[Bocadude85]

12z NAMGEM has shifted about 200 miles southwest of the 6z position at 84 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100212&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0

[tolakram]

[toad strangler]

Euro moves Matthew NNW through 24

[Aric Dunn]

A little west of the 12z run yesterday for 24 hours.. makes sense being its continues this being west of the forecast.

[tolakram]

Trend

[toad strangler]

12z Euro through 48 NE looking to shoot the gap a touch slower and a touch W of 00z

[Aric Dunn]

What we need to take from all of this is that the situation beyond 72 hours is very fluid at the moment. The slow and continued westerly movement of Matthew is complicating things further. Any info on G-IV flights north of Haiti and Cuba to get a better idea on the ridge to go into the models?

I don't think we have had a G-IV flight in the last day or so. Next one I see scheduled is for tomorrow evening (G-IV FLIGHT FOR 04/0000Z) and the NHC has G-IV flights scheduled every 12 hours following that one, per the recon plans.

there was one yesterday and another is in route to sample east of the bahamas which will help tremendously with the ridging. yesterdays dealt with the carribean and gulf.

That and there is going to be a whole crap load more data as its going to weather balloon party time..

[toad strangler]

Trend

yeah, back and forth like tennis...

[jdjaguar]

What we need to take from all of this is that the situation beyond 72 hours is very fluid at the moment. The slow and continued westerly movement of Matthew is complicating things further. Any info on G-IV flights north of Haiti and Cuba to get a better idea on the ridge to go into the models?

I don't think we have had a G-IV flight in the last day or so. Next one I see scheduled is for tomorrow evening (G-IV FLIGHT FOR 04/0000Z) and the NHC has G-IV flights scheduled every 12 hours following that one, per the recon plans.

there was one yesterday and another is in route to sample east of the bahamas which will help tremendously with the ridging. yesterdays dealt with the carribean and gulf.

That and there is going to be a whole crap load more data as its going to weather balloon party time..

speaking of weather balloons

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/782635826710663168

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

what is wrong with the EC? It forecasts WEAKENING?

This model is nothing but a steaming pile of dog doodoo

[SFLcane]

12z NAMGEM has shifted about 200 miles southwest of the 6z position at 84 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100212&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0

Models trending on a NW track after Cuba. Watching closely it will determine how nasty wx gets around here.

[toad strangler]

N @72 into S Bahamas

[wxmann_91]

what is wrong with the EC? It forecasts WEAKENING?

This model is nothing but a steaming pile of dog doodoo

It was more accurate on the SW turn and looks to be right on Haiti/Windward Passage instead of Jamaica/Cuba.

Don't get me wrong, its intensities are crap. But track-wise, the ECMWF is winning.

[SouthFLTropics]

Less ridging than yesterday's 12z at 72 hours. Let's see if the thumb ridge builds in here.

[LarryWx]

At 72 hours, the 12Z Euro's low off of the US NE looks a touch stronger and the ridge to the north of Matthew looks a little weaker to me vs the last two runs but can't yet tell how that will play out on later maps.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro NW into EC Bahamas @96