ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

More ridging at 96 than yesterday's 12z...beware the thumb ridge...here it comes.

[toad strangler]

Virtually no change in position from 0z in this last frame.

[wxmann_91]

At 72 hours, the 12Z Euro's low off of the US NE looks a touch stronger and the ridge to the north of Matthew looks a little weaker to me vs the last two runs but can't yet tell how that will play out on later maps.

Depending on how that amplifies it may work for or against us. It could, for instance, force rising heights to the north of Matthew upstream of it. Alternatively, it could provide an escape route for Matthew. Gonna be close.

[Aric Dunn]

significantly more ridging than 12z yesterday ... actually quite a lot at 120 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

At 120 hours/5 days, still too close to call between the GFS, Euro, and UKMET. The biggest thing to take from all of these if you're in the SE Conus is that they are all showing a hurricane in the SE Bahamas by 72 to 96 hours with a ridge building to the North.

[tolakram]

[toad strangler]

Slightly more progressive @120 with no shift E or W from 0z

[LarryWx]

At 72 hours, the 12Z Euro's low off of the US NE looks a touch stronger and the ridge to the north of Matthew looks a little weaker to me vs the last two runs but can't yet tell how that will play out on later maps.

Depending on how that amplifies it may work for or against us. It could, for instance, force rising heights to the north of Matthew upstream of it.

Interesting.

120 hour 12Z Euro is slower than the 0Z Sun run and with the ridge to the north probably a bit weaker overall based on interpolations of various maps. Also, the track vs interpolation of 120/144 of the 0Z Euro telsl me it is now a little east of the 0Z Euro track. So, I expect this to recurve east of NC on this run. Let's see.

[WHYB630]

At 72 hours, the 12Z Euro's low off of the US NE looks a touch stronger and the ridge to the north of Matthew looks a little weaker to me vs the last two runs but can't yet tell how that will play out on later maps.

Probably a good thing for the US

not really, that forces the ridge to be built west of the low. See 120hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_6.png

[Aric Dunn]

this
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_7.png



vs this
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_6.png


huge difference in ridging.

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

144 hour bee lining it to the carolinas. though its about to turn

[toad strangler]

Significant shift NW @144

[tolakram]

[floridasun78]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/782620921727098880

what you think what he saying?

[Alyono]

what is wrong with the EC? It forecasts WEAKENING?

This model is nothing but a steaming pile of dog doodoo

It was more accurate on the SW turn and looks to be right on Haiti/Windward Passage instead of Jamaica/Cuba.

Don't get me wrong, its intensities are crap. But track-wise, the ECMWF is winning.

Normally, it's the best global model for intensity. One I often give weight to when making an intensity forecast, especially given how pathetic the LGEM and SHIPS have been, as well as the HWRF and GFDL's phantom weakening that was forecast yesterday. However, the MU has been far superior this time intensity wise

[toad strangler]

Raking the coast with high end TS conditions and lifting NE

[Bocadude85]

12Z JMA shifts about 200 miles southwest from yesterday's 12z run, now has the system over Andros Island.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100212&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Aric Dunn]

well out of all the days of data ,, today is the best.. GIV is flying east of bahamas so will have plenty of ridging data as well as all the balloons.. so 18z and 00z will be important.

[WHYB630]

so far 12z EC is similar to 00z EC. Happy to see some consistences and stop confusing the forecasters