ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Port Saint Lucie's forecast has been updated to "Hurricane Conditions Possible" as well for Thursday night.

[sponger]

[quote="Hypercane_Kyle"]Extremely intense thunderstorms firing off in Matthew now. -80C wrapping around a good 1/2 of the eyewall. Could be a sign the EWRC is about to wrap up?


Not good for Haiti.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the initial Recon data, there is no reason to adjust the 120 kt intensity. The NE quad has not been sampled, so perhaps it is a bit more intense.

[ThetaE]

Update on the EWRC- the satellite link I posted earlier shows Matthew doing a small trochoidal oscillation/cyclonic loop over the past hour or so. Definite signs of an EWRC.

For those who missed it: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... uality=100 (speeding it up helps a lot).

[Nimbus]

Hopefully the people in western Haiti that needed to be evacuated made it to the bus stations in time.

http://streema.com/radios/Caraibes_FM

[pgoss11]

OMG at that 5 pm advisory and the massive probability uptick that accompanied it . You'd think there would be some watches for the east coast sometime tomorrow. Even if they're TS watches keep in mind that's what was initially issued for the Tiburon peninsula and look at the pickle they're in now. Conversely things got better for our friends in Jamaica. Obviously watching trends is important and in the US case the trend is definitely NOT our friend..

Whats ironic is that I can see NHC tomm. a.m., putting up T.S. Watches for Keys and Miami-Dade County and Hurricane Watches up from Broward County up to at least St. Lucie County. Only reason that those Watches wont go further north is simply that Watches further north along the coast would be unnecessarily far in advance. Reality is, Hurricane Watches will very very likely be issued at some point for the rest of the E. Florida Coastline. Crazy angle that Matthew would supposedly be approaching from "could" cause hurricane conditions over time, from Broward to Jacksonville. I still think that there' is little risk to extreme S. Florida but I think Delray Beach to Cocoa has a Bulls Eye on them (even if the eye comes right up to 10-20 miles offshore scraping the coastline. WAY to close for comfort (but would be a far better outcome).

Look out S. Carolina, I'm thinking the ridge will amplify enough to keep a fast moving storm to directly threaten your coastline.

I always felt that our recessed coastline would protect us here in Charleston SC from the hurricanes whizzing by to the north. Might not help us this time..

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami has hurricane conditions possible for my locale in East Boca Raton now too for Thu and Thu night

[ozonepete]

A lot of talk that Matthew is undergoing an ERC. Is there any 89 or 91Ghz microwave satellite evidence or RECON evidence or is this speculation? Just curious since I haven't seen any such evidence and the NHC hasn't said one has started.

Looks to me that the first evidence of a developing outer eyewall showed up on microwave on this 1230Z F-18 pass. The inner eyewall has begun to slowly dissipate ever since, such as seen in the 2011Z GPM pass (also seen here in 36 GHz). IR trends also seem to suggest to me that the inner eyewall has begun to dissipate and will soon be collapsing into the new eye.

Thanks for the actual data, 1900! It is so great to see actual data to support a claim for an ERC. You are the real scientist. Having seen this data though, wouldn't you say that, just like in past ERC "scares" this one looks "iffy" and may not actually complete? I don't see enough of a complete outer ring and the eye, as in past attempts, was contracting but now seems like the contraction has stopped. Of course a real ERC would be awesome for Haiti since some weakening or prevention of intensifying would ensue.

[ZX12R]

Zoomed in GFS 18Z, 72 Hours out..Hmm, a bit to close for comfort!!

Yes, I do not like this trend. Florida agrees with me.

[ozonepete]

Update on the EWRC- the satellite link I posted earlier shows Matthew doing a small trochoidal oscillation/cyclonic loop over the past hour or so. Definite signs of an EWRC.

For those who missed it: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... uality=100 (speeding it up helps a lot).

Trochoidal oscillations happen in all cat 4 or cat 5 TCs and do not indicate ERCs.

[galaxy401]

Based on the initial Recon data, there is no reason to adjust the 120 kt intensity. The NE quad has not been sampled, so perhaps it is a bit more intense.

They did pass through the NE quad.

[Blown Away]

May be a wobble only, but in the last frame Matt jogged N... Hopefully that's a trend for Haiti...

[ThetaE]

Update on the EWRC- the satellite link I posted earlier shows Matthew doing a small trochoidal oscillation/cyclonic loop over the past hour or so. Definite signs of an EWRC.

For those who missed it: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... uality=100 (speeding it up helps a lot).

Trochoidal oscillations happen in all cat 4 or cat 5 TCs and do not indicate ERCs.

Ok, thanks for the heads up. From what I always understood, trochoidal oscillations happened because of the small, inner eyewall "rolling around" inside of the outer eyewall. Still, it's a neat thing to note.

[ozonepete]

For 1900: Oh, and given the data we have now, it looks like an ERC is probably happening. I'm just not sure it will complete as they normally do since none of the others really have. i.e. they've resulted in a somewhat larger radius eye but it was a sloppy transition.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

934.7mb pressure found by Recon!

[cycloneye]

Below the 940,s now. 935 mbs at first pass.

[SunnyThoughts]

Below the 940,s now. 935 mbs at first pass.

Oh My! Not good

[Alyono]

http://i67.tinypic.com/2gufk7b.gif
May be a wobble only, but in the last frame the jogged N... Hopefully that's a trend for Haiti...

again, it's not about whether or not the highest winds hit Haiti. It is all about the rainfall. Most systems that have hit Haiti have either weakened over the DR or been slop systems. Gustav was a well organized cane, but it was very small. Thus, the impacts were really limited to Jacmel. This time, we're looking at a very well organized intense hurricane with very well formed bands. Going to be training of bands, just like we've seen today over the DR. That is the killer

[ozonepete]

Update on the EWRC- the satellite link I posted earlier shows Matthew doing a small trochoidal oscillation/cyclonic loop over the past hour or so. Definite signs of an EWRC.

For those who missed it: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... uality=100 (speeding it up helps a lot).

Trochoidal oscillations happen in all cat 4 or cat 5 TCs and do not indicate ERCs.

Ok, thanks for the heads up. From what I always understood, trochoidal oscillations happened because of the small, inner eyewall "rolling around" inside of the outer eyewall. Still, it's a neat thing to note.

We're all learning together.

[Michele B]

The NHC has been under-forecasting Matthew's intensity for days. I'm sure that they don't want to overly alarm folks in the Carolinas just yet, while there is still considerable uncertainty in the track. Conditions look quite good for Matthew to maintain Cat 3-4 strength through the Bahamas to the Carolinas. As for weakening to a TS, that's quite unlikely.

Concerning Florida - no one is forecast hurricane conditions there, only a brush with tropical storm conditions. No need to panic, just be ready in case the winds are toward the upper end of TS conditions vs. the lower end.

Sounds like you are pretty certain there will be landfall in Florida, is that correct?

I can't speak for wxman, but the way I read it, he is saying NO landfall in Florida with only a brush with TS conditions.

MY weather guy here in SWFL (WINKTV) didn't say one way or the other about whether or not it makes landfall as a hurricane when it brushes near the east coast, but what he showed was the "wind field." Bascially, he showed a yellow blob, showing where "the most damaging winds will be...." but actually DID say - "THERE WILL BE NO HURRICANE WINDS BY THIS POINT, AS IT WILL BE DOWNGRADED...."

He did NOT say, "There will be no hurricane winds ON SHORE," he said, "THERE WILL BE NO HURRICANE WINDS..those would be depicted in RED....All we see for now is yellow, indicating the storm has diminished in strength."

The only reason I'm still beating on this is because right now he's the ONLY LOCAL MET that i would believe! HE CALLED CHARLEY'S TURN EAST when everyone else was saying, "Going to Tampa!!!"

Now he's sounding like he has no idea about these things.....

It just confused me, that's all.

Will drop it now.