ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[LarryWx]

At 72 hours, the 12Z Euro's low off of the US NE looks a touch stronger and the ridge to the north of Matthew looks a little weaker to me vs the last two runs but can't yet tell how that will play out on later maps.

Depending on how that amplifies it may work for or against us. It could, for instance, force rising heights to the north of Matthew upstream of it.

Interesting.

120 hour 12Z Euro is slower than the 0Z Sun run and with the ridge to the north probably a bit weaker overall based on interpolations of various maps. Also, the track vs interpolation of 120/144 of the 0Z Euro telsl me it is now a little east of the 0Z Euro track. So, I expect this to recurve east of NC on this run. Let's see.

But, now it may slow due to new high going by to the north temporarily. The NE US may not be out of the woods on this run.

[floridasun78]

how good is JMA i told one that not that good?

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

JMA model way west near SFL..

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/782650671417987072




Comparing 6-day forecasts from ECMWF 12z and previous 00z shows overlap in Hurricane Matthew position but diff progression of land front

[toad strangler]

12Z JMA shifts about 200 miles southwest from yesterday's 12z run, now has the system over Andros Island.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100212&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Aric Dunn]

did it just get trapped ? lol

[WHYB630]

.... very slow ESE from 168 to 192.....

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/ecdWeather/status/782643217326018564




Another interesting ECMWF 12z init of Hurricane Matthew. Convective blob to east of center continues to confuse vortex/center location pic.twitter.com/EhqOdsJV8R

[meriland23]

this seems to be a fight between the ridge, and that low that may or may not develop. The models are completely in sync in terms of being inconsistent as to which way (east or west)

[Aric Dunn]

euro at 192 ese motion.. weird.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yes, I had read elsewhere that it appears the 12z initialized the eastern blob as opposed to the center of Matthew.

[LarryWx]

this seems to be a fight between the ridge, and that low that may or may not develop. The models are completely in sync in terms of being inconsistent as to which way (east or west)

And that low doesn't look like it is from that tropical wave ENE of the Leewards. It looks like a new low that forms E of the Mid-Atlantic US coast from energy coming off the US.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/ecdWeather/status/782643217326018564




Another interesting ECMWF 12z init of Hurricane Matthew. Convective blob to east of center continues to confuse vortex/center location pic.twitter.com/EhqOdsJV8R

Is that blob biasing the run to the east perhaps? Or what's driving it "ne" in the near term toward Haiti?

[tolakram]

Sit and Spin

[WHYB630]

192 to 216: stall.......

[PTrackerLA]

What a forecasting headache and way too close to comfort for the Carolinas at this range.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Are all models now taking this away from the US?

[tolakram]

End of the run, moving NE

[toad strangler]