ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Medtronic15]

Below the 940,s now. 935 mbs at first pass.

OMG!

[fci]

http://i67.tinypic.com/2gufk7b.gif
May be a wobble only, but in the last frame the jogged N... Hopefully that's a trend for Haiti...

again, it's not about whether or not the highest winds hit Haiti. It is all about the rainfall. Most systems that have hit Haiti have either weakened over the DR or been slop systems. Gustav was a well organized cane, but it was very small. Thus, the impacts were really limited to Jacmel. This time, we're looking at a very well organized intense hurricane with very well formed bands. Going to be training of bands, just like we've seen today over the DR. That is the killer

Does the storm look a little "flattened" at the top?
Shear, or just an illusion?

[HurricaneEric]

http://i67.tinypic.com/2gufk7b.gif
May be a wobble only, but in the last frame the jogged N... Hopefully that's a trend for Haiti...

again, it's not about whether or not the highest winds hit Haiti. It is all about the rainfall. Most systems that have hit Haiti have either weakened over the DR or been slop systems. Gustav was a well organized cane, but it was very small. Thus, the impacts were really limited to Jacmel. This time, we're looking at a very well organized intense hurricane with very well formed bands. Going to be training of bands, just like we've seen today over the DR. That is the killer

I do agree that the main killer will be the rate of rain, only there is a difference between direct hit or the core sliding past. Hurricane force winds that extend out about 35 miles out from the center would only makes things worse for Haitians.

[Cyclenall]

935 mb!!! Holy crap!! I thought it could have been lower but by that much?!

[GCANE]

Eyewall looks solid to me.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html


Haiti is going to take the worst of it.

Praying for everyone there.

[1900hurricane]

A lot of talk that Matthew is undergoing an ERC. Is there any 89 or 91Ghz microwave satellite evidence or RECON evidence or is this speculation? Just curious since I haven't seen any such evidence and the NHC hasn't said one has started.

Looks to me that the first evidence of a developing outer eyewall showed up on microwave on this 1230Z F-18 pass. The inner eyewall has begun to slowly dissipate ever since, such as seen in the 2011Z GPM pass (also seen here in 36 GHz). IR trends also seem to suggest to me that the inner eyewall has begun to dissipate and will soon be collapsing into the new eye.

Thanks for the actual data, 1900! It is so great to see actual data to support a claim for an ERC. You are the real scientist. Having seen this data though, wouldn't you say that, just like in past ERC "scares" this one looks "iffy" and may not actually complete? I don't see enough of a complete outer ring and the eye, as in past attempts, was contracting but now seems like the contraction has stopped. Of course a real ERC would be awesome for Haiti since some weakening or prevention of intensifying would ensue.

I'd say this one has a better chance of completing than the other attempts, but I have some doubts myself too. The weakness seen in the western portion of the outer eyewall is clearly noticeable. Haiti may come just a little bit too soon for it to complete.

[jlauderdal]

nassau bahamas radio http://tunein.com/radio/969FM-GuardianRadio-s170242/

[tolakram]

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[GCANE]

Eye is going pinhole again.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[Blinhart]

guesses for next full advisory???

mine 925 mb, 155 MPH, moving N at 6 MPH

[ObsessedMiami]

NWS Miami has hurricane conditions possible for my locale in East Boca Raton now too for Thu and Thu night

Did a little looking around. NWS Miami has hurricane conditions possible for Miami Beach Thursday and Ft Lauderdale as well. Tropical storm conditions Wednesday night through Friday in my location in the swamps of West Kendall

[ozonepete]

Oh, no. This looks really bad, really strong. Could very well get to cat 5 or really close now just before closest approach to Haiti.

[galaxy401]

No change. Pressure still 940 in the latest advisory.

[CrazyC83]

guesses on intermediate advisory??

mine 930mb, 150 MPH moving N at 6MPH

No change made, likely because the dropsonde was delayed. However data supports maintaining the 120 kt intensity (pressure probably in the high 930s)

[Evil Jeremy]

Interesting that NHC went with an estimated 940mb pressure at 8pm.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 74.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

They may have left it at 940 mbs waiting for dropsondes.

[sponger]

That eye looks mean!

[HurricaneBelle]

The only reason I'm still beating on this is because right now he's the ONLY LOCAL MET that i would believe! HE CALLED CHARLEY'S TURN EAST when everyone else was saying, "Going to Tampa!!!"

Now he's sounding like he has no idea about these things.....

Eh, unless he was calling it the day before, calling Charley's further east turn before the NHC got around to it was not exactly a mean feat. It was apparent by about 9-10 AM on the day it was approaching Florida that Charley had gone as far west as he was going to go and already had starting losing longitude relative to the Tampa Bay area. As someone in the bullseye at the time, I noticed this myself watching satellite and radar and several of the mets here in the Tampa Bay area made the same observation on their late morning/noontime news reports. The problem was that the NHC stuck to its guns on the track with the 11AM advisory when it was already obvious Charley was going in further east (and hence further south) along the coast and it wasn't until 1-2 PM that they acknowledged the obvious with a special advisory.

[sponger]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 74.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

They may have left it at 940 mbs waiting for dropsondes.

Yep, can easily issue a special weather statement if needed. I doubt it makes much difference for Haiti. I wonder how many people are still on that tip?

[tolakram]

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