ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Judging from recon and microwave data I think Matthew already completed the EWRC. Note the wider eye. I am wondering if the smaller eye appearing on IR imagery is leftover convective debris.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 0:07Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 23:43:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°37'N 74°39'W (16.6167N 74.65W)
B. Center Fix Location: 172 statute miles (278 km) to the SE (124°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,536m (8,320ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 129kts (From the SE at ~ 148.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 934mb (27.58 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest, SW
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 120° to 300° (ESE to WNW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 129kts (~ 148.5mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (53°) from the flight level center at 23:37:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 255° at 4kts (From the WSW at 5mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SW (225°) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYEWALL WITH KYDNEY SHAPED EYE

[ThetaE]

Woah! Vortex puts it at 934 mb!

Seems my earlier guess was too strong on winds and too weak on pressure.

[RL3AO]

Yep, can easily issue a special weather statement if needed. I doubt it makes much difference for Haiti. I wonder how many people are still on that tip?

I highly doubt there were significant evacuations.

[GCANE]

Judging from recon and microwave data I think Matthew already completed the EWRC. Note the wider eye. I am wondering if the smaller eye appearing on IR imagery is leftover convective debris.

https://s9.postimg.org/gfiyino1b/20161003_2248_f17_x_91h_14_LMATTHEW_120kts_940mb.jpg

It must be, judging from what recon found.

[drezee]

Holy Wind Batman!!

945mb 90° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
938mb 85° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
928mb 95° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
921mb 95° (from the E) 147 knots (169 mph)
917mb 100° (from the E) 148 knots (170 mph)
913mb 100° (from the E) 155 knots (178 mph)
909mb 100° (from the E) 155 knots (178 mph)
904mb 100° (from the E) 143 knots (165 mph)
900mb 105° (from the ESE) 147 knots (169 mph)
894mb 105° (from the ESE) 134 knots (154 mph)
889mb 105° (from the ESE) 148 knots (170 mph)
885mb 110° (from the ESE) 146 knots (168 mph)
879mb 115° (from the ESE) 153 knots (176 mph)
873mb 115° (from the ESE) 150 knots (173 mph)
868mb 120° (from the ESE) 161 knots (185 mph)
862mb 125° (from the SE) 161 knots (185 mph)
856mb 125° (from the SE) 167 knots (192 mph)
853mb 125° (from the SE) 164 knots (189 mph)

[GCANE]

Tapping into fresh high OHC water now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031200.GIF

[ronyan]

Is this the strongest hurricane in recorded history to landfall in Haiti? (assuming current strength and eye passage over the western tip)

[HurricaneBelle]

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYEWALL WITH KYDNEY SHAPED EYE

Is "kydney" some kind of British spelling, like "tyre"?

[SouthDadeFish]

Judging from the dropsonde in the NE quadrant, Matthew isn't too far off from attaining category five intensity again. This is horrible timing.

[znel52]

latest
http://i.imgur.com/bHiDORj.gif

What a beast. It has done an incredible job keeping that small eye for so long. Praying for the folks in Cuba and Haiti tonight.

[Blinhart]

Holy Wind Batman!!

945mb 90° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
938mb 85° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
928mb 95° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
921mb 95° (from the E) 147 knots (169 mph)
917mb 100° (from the E) 148 knots (170 mph)
913mb 100° (from the E) 155 knots (178 mph)
909mb 100° (from the E) 155 knots (178 mph)
904mb 100° (from the E) 143 knots (165 mph)
900mb 105° (from the ESE) 147 knots (169 mph)
894mb 105° (from the ESE) 134 knots (154 mph)
889mb 105° (from the ESE) 148 knots (170 mph)
885mb 110° (from the ESE) 146 knots (168 mph)
879mb 115° (from the ESE) 153 knots (176 mph)
873mb 115° (from the ESE) 150 knots (173 mph)
868mb 120° (from the ESE) 161 knots (185 mph)
862mb 125° (from the SE) 161 knots (185 mph)
856mb 125° (from the SE) 167 knots (192 mph)
853mb 125° (from the SE) 164 knots (189 mph)

What hurricane is this from? Haven't seen any of those numbers for Matthew.

[johngaltfla]

Below the 940,s now. 935 mbs at first pass.

WOW! This is getting very scary now as a drop below 930 mb would start putting it on pace with some rather historic storms.

[sbcc]

Is this the strongest hurricane in recorded history to landfall in Haiti? (assuming current strength and eye passage over the western tip)

This link has some good information: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/haiti.asp

[RL3AO]

Holy Wind Batman!!

945mb 90° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
938mb 85° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
928mb 95° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
921mb 95° (from the E) 147 knots (169 mph)
917mb 100° (from the E) 148 knots (170 mph)
913mb 100° (from the E) 155 knots (178 mph)
909mb 100° (from the E) 155 knots (178 mph)
904mb 100° (from the E) 143 knots (165 mph)
900mb 105° (from the ESE) 147 knots (169 mph)
894mb 105° (from the ESE) 134 knots (154 mph)
889mb 105° (from the ESE) 148 knots (170 mph)
885mb 110° (from the ESE) 146 knots (168 mph)
879mb 115° (from the ESE) 153 knots (176 mph)
873mb 115° (from the ESE) 150 knots (173 mph)
868mb 120° (from the ESE) 161 knots (185 mph)
862mb 125° (from the SE) 161 knots (185 mph)
856mb 125° (from the SE) 167 knots (192 mph)
853mb 125° (from the SE) 164 knots (189 mph)

What hurricane is this from? Haven't seen any of those numbers for Matthew.

Thats a dropsonde from Matthew. Winds over 165 knots above the surface. Suggests intensification has continued.

[snowpocalypse]

nassau bahamas radio http://tunein.com/radio/969FM-GuardianRadio-s170242/

Anybody catch the 'hurricane song' on this station? I love the laid back forecast discussion

[AutoPenalti]

That thing look beautiful but insane.

The power of the carribean.

[ThetaE]

Holy Wind Batman!!

945mb 90° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
938mb 85° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
928mb 95° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
921mb 95° (from the E) 147 knots (169 mph)
917mb 100° (from the E) 148 knots (170 mph)
913mb 100° (from the E) 155 knots (178 mph)
909mb 100° (from the E) 155 knots (178 mph)
904mb 100° (from the E) 143 knots (165 mph)
900mb 105° (from the ESE) 147 knots (169 mph)
894mb 105° (from the ESE) 134 knots (154 mph)
889mb 105° (from the ESE) 148 knots (170 mph)
885mb 110° (from the ESE) 146 knots (168 mph)
879mb 115° (from the ESE) 153 knots (176 mph)
873mb 115° (from the ESE) 150 knots (173 mph)
868mb 120° (from the ESE) 161 knots (185 mph)
862mb 125° (from the SE) 161 knots (185 mph)
856mb 125° (from the SE) 167 knots (192 mph)
853mb 125° (from the SE) 164 knots (189 mph)

What hurricane is this from? Haven't seen any of those numbers for Matthew.

This dropsonde: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 954-167-90

[sponger]

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYEWALL WITH KYDNEY SHAPED EYE

Is "kydney" some kind of British spelling, like "tyre"?

He was getting buffeted around pretty good at the time. Hurricane hunters are earning their pay today!

[Michele B]

Interesting the NHC 72 hour surface map has 98L as "Future Tropical Cyclone" thinking somehow this is playing a roll bringing Matt more west???

This graphic kinda makes it look that, doesn't it?