ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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TreasureIslandFLGal
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4761 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:none of the models cross 75w at this point and its crossing it and still moving wnw.. ish


Aric, been watching your posts for a few days now, as you''ve been calling the reality differences compared to the modeling. Which, if any of them, are you giving more credence with this storm at this point forward over the next 5 days?
What is your impression of the ACCESS? fantasyland, or should it be considered?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4762 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:51 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:none of the models cross 75w at this point and its crossing it and still moving wnw.. ish


Aric, been watching your posts for a few days now, as you''ve been calling the reality differences compared to the modeling. Which, if any of them, are you giving more credence with this storm at this point forward over the next 5 days?
What is your impression of the ACCESS? fantasyland, or should it be considered?


Right now I am giving none of them and credence they have all continued to either initialize the wrong motion/ridge strength/storm strength/ etc. in various incarnations. they dont have a handle on the synoptics or the current set up or steering. its very silly at this point.

I mean right now they have it farther east with even more nne motion when its moving the opposite direction.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4763 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:none of the models cross 75w at this point and its crossing it and still moving wnw.. ish


Aric, been watching your posts for a few days now, as you''ve been calling the reality differences compared to the modeling. Which, if any of them, are you giving more credence with this storm at this point forward over the next 5 days?
What is your impression of the ACCESS? fantasyland, or should it be considered?


Right now I am giving none of them and credence they have all continued to either initialize the wrong motion/ridge strength/storm strength/ etc. in various incarnations. they dont have a handle on the synoptics or the current set up or steering. its very silly at this point.

I mean right now they have it farther easier with even more nne motion when its moving the opposite direction.


Maybe, but ACCESS has no track record that is publicly available, that I can find. I really don't think it should be considered at all, other than observing how it does with each storm. As was mentioned earlier by a promet, conditions on the west side of Florida are bad so if something went that far west it would probably be weak.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4764 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:02 pm

tolakram wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
Aric, been watching your posts for a few days now, as you''ve been calling the reality differences compared to the modeling. Which, if any of them, are you giving more credence with this storm at this point forward over the next 5 days?
What is your impression of the ACCESS? fantasyland, or should it be considered?


Right now I am giving none of them and credence they have all continued to either initialize the wrong motion/ridge strength/storm strength/ etc. in various incarnations. they dont have a handle on the synoptics or the current set up or steering. its very silly at this point.

I mean right now they have it farther easier with even more nne motion when its moving the opposite direction.


Maybe, but ACCESS has no track record that is publicly available, that I can find. I really don't think it should be considered at all, other than observing how it does with each storm. As was mentioned earlier by a promet, conditions on the west side of Florida are bad so if something went that far west it would probably be weak.


I dont think I have ever seen ACESS.. that the Australian model right ?

from what I saw it does weaken it as to brings it towards the gulf.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4765 Postby meriland23 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:06 pm

So is it safe to assume now that Matt is likely to OTS since both the Euro and GFS are on that predicition
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4766 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:07 pm

meriland23 wrote:So is it safe to assume now that Matt is likely to OTS since both the Euro and GFS are on that predicition


Still way to early.. both models continue to bounce back and forth with trough or ridging on the east coast. south florida to Hatteras and farther north should still be watching closely
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4767 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:09 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:none of the models cross 75w at this point and its crossing it and still moving wnw.. ish


Aric's statement is key. The models are largely clueless right now and it feels a little like Julia. He is now only up to 14.5N and already to 75.0W with at least a wobble to due west!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4768 Postby Ken711 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:09 pm

meriland23 wrote:So is it safe to assume now that Matt is likely to OTS since both the Euro and GFS are on that predicition


Windshield wiper affect. Tomorrow they'll probably show landfall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4769 Postby robbielyn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:none of the models cross 75w at this point and its crossing it and still moving wnw.. ish


Aric, been watching your posts for a few days now, as you''ve been calling the reality differences compared to the modeling. Which, if any of them, are you giving more credence with this storm at this point forward over the next 5 days?
What is your impression of the ACCESS? fantasyland, or should it be considered?


Right now I am giving none of them and credence they have all continued to either initialize the wrong motion/ridge strength/storm strength/ etc. in various incarnations. they dont have a handle on the synoptics or the current set up or steering. its very silly at this point.


I mean right now they have it farther east with even more nne motion when its moving the opposite direction.

gfs sept 30th 06z had this go through the heart of jamaica still managed to keep this off fl coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4770 Postby funster » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:12 pm

Is there anything after hour 240 on Euro or is that as far as it goes? Last image shows it hanging around in a bad place for it to be in Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. :eek: It must want to visit the area Hermine did. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=221
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4771 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:14 pm

funster wrote:Is there anything after hour 240 on Euro or is that as far as it goes? Last image shows it hanging around in a bad place for it to be in Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. :eek: It must want to visit the area Hermine did. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=221

That's as far as it goes.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4772 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:21 pm

yeah i heard access was the autralian model, new kid on the block, and has been an outlier. however, i remember a week ago some of the models were showing a similar path and setup that it is now showing, though they have all changed their tune since.
i still see at least a few more hrs of nw flow ahead. if Matt stays real slow, any chance that approaching trough can generate a gulf side weakness to draw him nw or nnw further?
i can see a jamaica, even just west of it, possibility, to cross more in central cuba, followed by nearly northward movement up into southern fl as a cat 2. cross longways through much of fl exiting in far northeast in front of front, increasing speed, and after that, future dependent on speed and eastward progression of front.
would be very bad for jamaica and cuba, but not worst case for fl due to a much weakened matt, who would weaken considerably more with a long landlocked traverse across state.

see disclaimer. pay attention to nhc and not my amateur take on things.
Last edited by TreasureIslandFLGal on Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4773 Postby Rail Dawg » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:22 pm

meriland23 wrote:So is it safe to assume now that Matt is likely to OTS since both the Euro and GFS are on that predicition



There's just no way to trust any model right now past 3 days.

Been doing this since 1980 and was a part of the initial modeling push. Am VERY impressed with how far they have come especially the GFS and Euro.

That being said I have been fooled over and over and over by the models and have learned to include 36 years of watching hurricanes as part of the equation.

Just like many of us do here.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4774 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:07 pm

GFS sends it into Nova Scotia with a pressure around 932mb. That would be incredible if it happened...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4775 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:17 pm

18z HWRF is slightly southwest and the 18Z GFDL is much farther southwest then the 12z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4776 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:03 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4777 Postby WPBWeather » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:27 pm



Oh, I hope not :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4778 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:32 pm

WPBWeather wrote:


Oh, I hope not :uarrow:



Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4779 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:36 pm



Is that the 12z UKMET? I'll be interested to see what the 00z Ukie has tonight.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4780 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:42 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:


Is that the 12z UKMET? I'll be interested to see what the 00z Ukie has tonight.


Yeah, thats the 12z from this afternoon.
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