ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

... Most don't understand the SUSTAINED nature of this wind. When you are truly in it...it is constant, not just a feeder band blowing by. People say oh...we are just in a tropical storm warning, no big deal. Has anyone dealt with sustained 60-70mph winds? It is beyond frightening. And some very real damage. ...

I experienced such winds when Tomas came a-calling six years ago. 'Twas scary indeed. I recently heard an account of a man who went through Hurricane Ivan in Grenada in 2004. Several days after the storm had passed, he was seen walking in a daze down a street and was asked where he was going. He replied that he didn't know but his house was destroyed and he just knew that as the provider for his family, he must find food for them. He was many miles from his house at the time.

[dukeblue219]

How much of the high mountain terrain will Matthew be over on Cuba?

A number of people have asked similar questions, so it might be helpful to see a topographical map of Cuba. Some of the most mountainous areas are on the extreme eastern end.

[SunnyThoughts]

This met is doing an awesome job, LIVE on facebook https://www.facebook.com/CBS12News/post ... 8334107941 taking questions and explaining in detail.

[floridasun78]

ripped from the CBS 12 live stream - their in house wind gust projection tool using the 18z GFS data

same KIIND wind as wilma that area

[ScottNAtlanta]

just heard it..thats how they roll in the carib..deal with the cane and move forward

They are talking about keeping a window on the opposite side open to relieve pressure so your house won't pop. Anyone want to take stab at verifying if that is a good idea?

very bad idea. old wives tale, doesn't work, lag time in getting to safety and flying debris does more damage to you or your house

I have heard of doing that in a tornado...not a hurricane

[Weatherboy1]

Live with Jeff Berardelli (CBS 12 West Palm chief meteorologist), says the 00z model suite just came in and the bulk of the group has shifted to the west...again.

On now: https://www.facebook.com/CBS12News/post ... 8334107941

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_14.gif

Yes, BAM suite of models clearly more west at 00z. Global models overnight will be key but the trend is definitely concerning.

[AutoPenalti]

Live with Jeff Berardelli (CBS 12 West Palm chief meteorologist), says the 00z model suite just came in and the bulk of the group has shifted to the west...again.

On now: https://www.facebook.com/CBS12News/post ... 8334107941

Wow.

[Aric Dunn]

waiting for the dropsondes but the FL and surface winds are 150. dropsonde could be higher could be looking at borderline cat 5 again

004930 1655N 07448W 6970 02713 9489 +168 +113 047085 086 122 008 03
005000 1656N 07449W 6956 02756 9584 +132 //// 051089 099 125 014 01
005030 1657N 07450W 7022 02738 9656 +132 +132 057119 127 125 014 0

[tgenius]

My question is, if the windfield is expanding, I'd imagine hurricane winds would too... I could be wrong but I see watches for everything in the south FL area...

[dukeblue219]

If you're looking for an entertainment break, Mythbusters did the "open windows for a hurricane" thing years ago. Their result after building a small house to code and using a huge hurricane simulator was that it made no difference, except that your house would be a real mess with the windows open. I"m sure you can find the full episode online somewhere.

[dukeblue219]

Recon just found 125 knots on the SFMR (not flagged, either) in the NW quadrant.

[Evil Jeremy]

We're about 160 users away from the Storm2k record. I feel good about breaking it sometime this week!

[BobHarlem]

Here's an overview from Tom Terry for the Orlando / E. C florida area https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video. ... how_text=0

[Michele B]

just heard it..thats how they roll in the carib..deal with the cane and move forward

They are talking about keeping a window on the opposite side open to relieve pressure so your house won't pop. Anyone want to take stab at verifying if that is a good idea?

If you don't want your house to pop you better have a plethora of hurricane straps connecting all the framing members, from the ground up to the crown of the roof... and all points in between... most houses are not tight enough for it to just pop from having all the windows closed...... usually a failure of the roof structure, or window, or garage door fails allowing the wind to breach the house, causing massive wind damage in the case of a major storm...

No. It's not wind, it's pressure differential.

When the storm approaches and the barometric pressure drops, but your house is buttoned up, and still has (relatively) high pressure locked up inside it can "bow" the windows - or maybe even the walls! The house will try to EVEN UP the pressure, lower it, if you will, so pressurize with what is outside....which will blow the windows (and maybe even the roof).y

You DO NOT WANT THE STORM INSIDE YOUR HOUSE; this is the reason you only open a window ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE. NO WIND COMING IN. Just enough to allow the higher pressure to escape.

[Ptarmigan]

Even ADT is showing some strengthening

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2016 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 16:35:09 N Lon : 74:34:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 926.5mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -23.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Dvorak puts Matthew as a near Category 5 hurricane.

[tropicwatch]

Recon just found 125 knots on the SFMR (not flagged, either) in the NW quadrant.

The one I am seeing is flagged.

Time: 00:50:30Z
Coordinates: 16.950N 74.833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 702.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,738 m (8,983 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 965.6 mb (28.52 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 57° at 119 kts (From the ENE at 136.9 mph)
Air Temp: 13.2°C (55.8°F)
Dew Pt: 13.2°C (55.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 127 kts (146.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 125 kts* (143.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 14 mm/hr* (0.55 in/hr*)
( * ) Denotes suspect data

[tigerz3030]

recon showing its intensified again.. lol

Hey everyone,
First I hope everyone stays safe with this coming towards FL. My curiosity is just moving to St Augustine 2 years ago, what and when should I start planning on preparing and what items? Very concerned here for sure!!!

[Michele B]

wind field has grown quite a bit.

Yep and looks like the WEST side has plenty of deep convection too even more than the east at the moment.

Good for Haiti, but looks like Jamaica may have made a mistake dropping TS/Hurr warnings.

[SouthFLTropics]

A couple of thought tonight: first and foremost thought and prayers go out to Haiti and the people on the Tiburon peninsula. I fear the news coming out of there is going to be devastating.

Other thought that crossed my mind tonight was that I can already feel my homeowner's insurance rates rising. Between Hermine and now Matthew, it's bound to happen.

[Ken711]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 38m38 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA
NHC is now prolonging this as a major hurricane. Still dont know why once north of the Bahamas it will weaken. Ex: GFS still 936 12z Sat