ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[toad strangler]

00z GFS further N (faster) @114 than 12z

[Alyono]

To see an East Coast strike, the chances will increase if the trough is STRONGER, not WEAKER. A stronger trough will have a sharper, or even a negative tilt, which will bring the storm into the coast. A weak trough will send it northeast

[Fountainguy97]

Is the trough slower this run??

MUCH more ridging to the east of Matthew at hr 120


It will impact NC THIS RUN

[WHYB630]

One thing needs to be sure is the trough tilt negative or not. If so unfortunately there may suck Matthew back to NE

[JaxGator]

To see an East Coast strike, the chances will increase if the trough is STRONGER, not WEAKER. A stronger trough will have a sharper, or even a negative tilt, which will bring the storm into the coast. A weak trough will send it northeast

Even without a stronger ridge?

[FLpanhandle91]

Is the trough slower this run??

MUCH more ridging to the east of Matthew at hr 120


It will impact NC THIS RUN

Slower trough and stronger ridge.

[chaser1]

I was going to disagree with the notion that this run appeared significantly faster, but at 108 hr. it is about 40 miles further north, and that gap seems to increase at 114 hrs.

Yikes, trending closer to the coast for sure -
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=254.4

[Alyono]

trough looks more highly amplified. I suspect this run is going into New England instead of Canada

[WHYB630]

It may suck Matt to new england
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_23.png

[FLpanhandle91]

JUST missing OBX to the east by about 20-30 miles. A significant trend west from 18z, however.

[chaser1]

Awful close at 132 hr. but hopefully this verifies. Storm begins to make its turn and this might be the closest point to the Outer Banks on this run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=254.4

[Ken711]

Seems like faster movement on this track?

[Fountainguy97]

trough looks more highly amplified. I suspect this run is going into New England instead of Canada

I agree trough is much sharper. Closed bowling ball vort as well

[SouthFLTropics]

Is the new UKMET out?

[WHYB630]

To see an East Coast strike, the chances will increase if the trough is STRONGER, not WEAKER. A stronger trough will have a sharper, or even a negative tilt, which will bring the storm into the coast. A weak trough will send it northeast

Even without a stronger ridge?

I think ridge and trough both work together. If the ridge is weak -> trough won't get negative tilted (???)

[meriland23]

What is the suspected strength at that point?

[South Texas Storms]

Is the new UKMET out?

It will be out in the next 5-10 minutes.

[toad strangler]

Possible landfall scrape in the OB's @138 of the 00z GFS
That is a LARGE shift to the NW over 12z

[chaser1]

Maybe even a hair closer at 138 hr's; then at 142 its definitely moving on

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=174.4

[FLpanhandle91]

What is the suspected strength at that point?

Very strong cat 4 and a bit large circulation than now.