ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

[ronjon]

[quote="NDG"]All I know is that is going to be really wet in FL at least through Thursday, a lot of deep tropical moisture on the eastern side of this system.

NDG...THAT is one massive plume of moisture.

[CypressMike]

look at the wind barbs.. looks like the southern vort is taking over.. circ is to the south of there present position..

Depends on their altitude. Maybe those samples represent the mid level winds? If that is the case, I would expect to see those results based on the satellite presentation.

[StormTracker]

All I know is that is going to be really wet in FL at least through Thursday, a lot of deep tropical moisture on the eastern side of this system.

NDG...THAT is one massive plume of moisture.

Yeah, looks like we're going to be under water for a few minutes!

[tropicwatch]

look at the wind barbs.. looks like the southern vort is taking over.. circ is to the south of there present position..

]

Depends on their altitude. Maybe those samples represent the mid level winds? If that is the case, I would expect to see those results based on the satellite presentation.

Significant wind shift in the area's of the previous vortex messages.

[robbielyn]

Aric what is that "pinwheel" swirl right at the very westernmost tip of cuba?

[O Town]

By the way, very tropical and squally weather in Orlando this afternoon.

Very much so. That last band lasted a while, stuck right in the middle of it. 1/2"-3/4" already in bucket.

[NDG]

look at the wind barbs.. looks like the southern vort is taking over.. circ is to the south of there present position..

]

Depends on their altitude. Maybe those samples represent the mid level winds? If that is the case, I would expect to see those results based on the satellite presentation.

Significant wind shift in the area's of the previous vortex messages.

Not on the latest pass, it loos more like it went through a trough axis or an eddy.

[tropicwatch]

look at the wind barbs.. looks like the southern vort is taking over.. circ is to the south of there present position..



Depends on their altitude. Maybe those samples represent the mid level winds? If that is the case, I would expect to see those results based on the satellite presentation.

Checked the other readings were from a much lower altitude.

[NDG]

Convinced that the LLC has reformed further south or taking over.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292232
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 34 20160829
222230 2354N 08432W 6960 03184 0029 +127 +067 142006 006 009 000 00
222300 2354N 08430W 6959 03184 0032 +125 +070 125005 006 009 000 00
222330 2354N 08427W 6957 03187 0038 +119 +076 128008 008 010 000 00
222400 2354N 08425W 6959 03185 0036 +121 +077 132009 009 010 000 00
222430 2354N 08423W 6959 03184 0043 +115 +083 138009 011 012 000 00
222500 2354N 08421W 6958 03186 0039 +119 +079 136012 012 016 000 00
222530 2355N 08418W 6959 03185 0043 +116 +080 130012 012 019 000 00
222600 2355N 08416W 6959 03185 0043 +114 +100 126012 013 021 000 00
222630 2355N 08414W 6959 03185 0040 +118 +088 127011 012 021 000 00
222700 2355N 08411W 6960 03185 0040 +116 +096 141012 014 018 000 00
222730 2355N 08409W 6958 03185 0041 +114 +107 149012 013 019 000 00
222800 2355N 08407W 6959 03186 0043 +113 +104 142010 011 019 000 00
222830 2355N 08405W 6959 03185 0048 +109 +103 152009 009 016 000 00
222900 2355N 08402W 6959 03186 0050 +109 +101 144009 011 015 000 00
222930 2355N 08400W 6957 03189 0049 +111 +091 111008 010 022 003 00
223000 2354N 08358W 6960 03187 0048 +112 +095 114005 006 023 000 00
223030 2354N 08356W 6958 03189 0055 +107 +098 151008 009 022 000 00
223100 2354N 08353W 6960 03188 0059 +105 +089 170009 010 020 000 00
223130 2354N 08351W 6959 03189 0056 +111 +064 167009 010 018 000 00
223200 2354N 08349W 6960 03189 0054 +111 +081 156006 007 020 000 00

[tigerz3030]

This storm is driving everyone crazy with all the twists and turns, no pun intended. I'm trying to decide when and if to go buy batteries, water, etc. ughhhhh. Guess another 24 hour wait should tell us a lot more......or maybe not!!

[psyclone]

the "center" should really be thought of as the western periphery of the active weather with this system...which is likely to primarily consist of heavy rain with some svr wx risk. sustained gales (if the system can ever make legit ts status) will likely be confined to areas near and just east of the center. for folks west of the center the chances to get meaningful impacts drop off very quickly. as of now this zone looks to slice through Tallahassee's CWA with the heaviest rain in the eastern portion of their area, and points east and south. The eventual placement of TS and flood watches (probably tomorrow) will yield some clarity.

[Hammy]

Is the center dissipating or reforming south? Not much of a wind shift this pass.

[sponger]

Since you are a Pro-Met I will ask if this is the main vort that takes over will this cause a major change in the Models?

I am not a pro met. but thanks
to answer your question: its quite possible how much is unknown. have to wait and see how this evolves.

Oh I thought you were, you seem right on point with the other Pro-Mets in here.

Storm2k makes you wicked smaart!

[tropicwatch]

Convinced that the LLC has reformed further south or taking over.

Unfortunately the next plane isn't scheduled to take off until about 1130pm central time. That could let the system consolidate and give us better readings.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292242
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 35 20160829
223230 2354N 08346W 6958 03191 0057 +108 +087 125006 007 018 000 00
223300 2354N 08344W 6959 03191 0058 +110 +068 119006 006 018 000 00
223330 2354N 08342W 6958 03192 0059 +110 +062 126007 007 020 000 00
223400 2355N 08339W 6960 03190 0059 +111 +057 124007 007 018 000 00
223430 2355N 08337W 6960 03191 0060 +110 +058 124008 008 017 000 00
223500 2355N 08335W 6960 03191 0060 +110 +061 118009 009 015 000 00
223530 2355N 08333W 6959 03191 0060 +110 +062 123009 009 019 000 00
223600 2355N 08330W 6959 03192 0062 +108 +064 132008 008 019 000 00
223630 2355N 08328W 6960 03191 0064 +106 +064 139008 008 019 000 00
223700 2355N 08326W 6960 03191 0066 +104 +065 139007 007 018 001 00
223730 2355N 08324W 6959 03190 0068 +103 +062 146007 007 017 000 00
223800 2355N 08321W 6959 03192 0070 +102 +060 149008 008 016 000 00
223830 2355N 08319W 6957 03193 0072 +100 +060 147007 008 018 000 00
223900 2355N 08317W 6958 03193 0072 +100 +072 140007 008 017 000 00
223930 2355N 08314W 6958 03195 0069 +103 +075 138008 008 016 000 00
224000 2355N 08312W 6959 03195 0071 +102 +073 137010 010 015 000 00
224030 2355N 08310W 6958 03196 0073 +102 +069 143013 015 015 000 00
224100 2355N 08307W 6960 03195 0072 +103 +064 151015 016 014 000 00
224130 2355N 08305W 6960 03194 0073 +102 +072 148014 015 017 000 00
224200 2355N 08303W 6957 03197 0069 +104 +081 137014 014 016 000 00

[SunnyThoughts]

Just got home from work, and clicked on satellite view...and my mouth dropped. Looked as if it had become much much better organized...( from far away sat pic) lol. That S formation. I see you guys seem to think another llc may be trying to take over farther south..That would put the system out over the water for a while longer than expected I would think. What a trip watching this thing has been. Hopefully we will know more in the next day or so, course we've been saying that for a week now.

[JaxGator]

Just got home from work, and clicked on satellite view...and my mouth dropped. Looked as if it had become much much better organized...( from far away sat pic) lol. That S formation. I see you guys seem to think another llc may be trying to take over farther south..That would put the system out over the water for a while longer than expected I would think. What a trip watching this thing has been. Hopefully we will know more in the next day or so, course we've been saying that for a week now.

Yes, having the center further south would have it more time over water. Depending on how it interacts with the anti-cyclone and other conditions, it could become a stronger system.

[Aric Dunn]

thats 2 passes with no VDM for that northern vort... its has to be reforming somewhere to the south in the convection.