ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is a carbon copy of the 00z GFS from 2 nights ago.

[SFLcane]

Woah...

[chaser1]

EC MUCH faster this run, and has shifted west. Carolinas may not escape this run.

The trend is most certainly west tonight, except for the windshield wiping UKMET

Uh oh..... looking at the height anomalies now, I'm wondering if Northern South Carolina might even get whacked??

[Bocadude85]

One thing I have noted is that if you look at the 0 hour of the Euro initialization and compare it to the prior run the position is always southwest.. My point being is that the EURO has seemed to me to be a little right biased..just food for thought while watching the 0z EURO run.

[SunnyThoughts]

EC MUCH faster this run, and has shifted west. Carolinas may not escape this run.

The trend is most certainly west tonight, except for the windshield wiping UKMET

Uh oh..... looking at the height anomalies now, I'm wondering if Northern South Carolina might even get whacked??

Yeah, was thinking SC/NC border

[chaser1]

Just slightly stronger ridging by the Euro and Matthew is riding the East Coast of Florida. Think Hurricane Charley in reverse. Close call there.

Jeez, yeah that really puts this in perspective!

[chaser1]

One thing I have noted is that if you look at the 0 hour of the GFS initialization and compare it to the prior run the position is always southwest.. My point being is that the EURO has seemed to me to be a little right biased..just food for thought while watching the 0z EURO run.

Agreed. I've always thought the EURO seemed "poleward leaning".

[SouthernBreeze]

I'm not liking this run at ALL! I'm sure strength would be down somewhat - possibly Cat 2 off Carolinas?

[chaser1]

942mb at 144 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=574.4

[SunnyThoughts]

I'm not liking this run at ALL! I'm sure strength would be down somewhat - possibly Cat 2 off Carolinas?

Showing 938mb at 144 hours

[chaser1]

I'm not liking this run at ALL! I'm sure strength would be down somewhat - possibly Cat 2 off Carolinas?

Showing 938mb at 144 hours

You must be looking at a higher resolution map than the one I am (tropicaltidbits)
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=414.4

[stormhunter7]

[chaser1]

No way??? Veers sharply to the ENE and misses N.C.? I hope so, but I dont think so.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=160

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

oz

[SouthFLTropics]

Whew...hour 168...right turn Clyde!!!

[stormhunter7]

storm goes ene next image to 934mb!

[SunnyThoughts]

It just outlines the entire coast from central Fla up through the outerbanks..and curves right on out. never touching land...but scaring 4 states to pieces lol geesh

[SouthFLTropics]

Trough grabs it at 168...bottom line is this...longer in the Caribbean = more risk for FL/Ga. Shorter in Caribbean = more risk Carolinas to New England.

Goodnight all...gotta sleep!!!

[SouthernBreeze]

Intensity this far out is really hard for models to get right though, correct? That's quite intense low pressure for this far north in Oct!

[chaser1]

storm goes ene next image to 934mb!

Seeing the height rises both to the N.E. and building in from the west, I'm a little suspicous of that ENE turn. If anything I would have bet a more WNW motion. Then again, its plausible that 6-8 hours slower speed might allow those heights to rise a bit more ahead of, and north of the storm.