ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the eye passes over Abaco and Grand Bahama at 96 hours on the Euro..about 100 miles offshore Palm Beach..

[stormhunter7]

Trough grabs it at 168...bottom line is this...longer in the Caribbean = more risk for FL/Ga. Shorter in Caribbean = more risk Carolinas to New England.

Goodnight all...gotta sleep!!!

check out 192 hr... gone east!

[WHYB630]

t@168: it seems like the trough is positive in EC compared to negative tilted in GFS. Nothing to bring to back to east coast

[SunnyThoughts]

Can't imagine the amount of evacuations...Seems to me you would have to evacuate the coastlines of all 4 states with it that close the entire way.

[chaser1]

storm goes ene next image to 934mb!

Seeing the height rises both to the N.E. and building in from the west, I'm a little suspicous of that ENE turn. If anything I would have bet a more WNW motion. Then again, its plausible that 6-8 hours slower speed might allow those heights to rise a bit more ahead of, and north of the storm.

Trough, ridge, trough, ridge..... pillow!

[WHYB630]

t@192-216: stalling/very slow SSE, wth
kinda "consistent" with 12z since it showed stalling motion too

(edited) t@240: farther SE =_=

[wxmann_91]

t@192-216: stalling/very slow SSE, wth

Progressive trof with strong ridging on both sides and overall positive height anomalies around Matthew. Not completely unreasonable.

[1900hurricane]

If this 00Z ECMWF run comes anywhere close to verifying, Alyono could very well get his 50+ ACE storm he has been predicting Matthew to be.

[chaser1]

t@192-216: stalling/very slow SSE, wth

Progressive trof with strong ridging on both sides and overall positive height anomalies around Matthew. Not completely unreasonable.

I knew Matthew was a real Ace-Hole, when I saw him

[AtlanticWind]

Euro doing big loop maybe?
Hope it's not trying for a second shot at U.S?

[NDG]

Hoperully the Euro will not keep trending westward, it always seems to do its best at days 4-5 range.

[tolakram]

0z ECMWF

[NDG]

I'm waiting patiently for Euro's ensembles to come out, I bet there is a few more ensemble members that shifted either closer to or over FL than its 12z run.

[caneman]

Surprised there isn't more buzz on the board. Well, it is middle of night but 100 miles east of Florida is within the margin of error for 96 hours out. Pretty good jump West for the right leaning Euro. This run will certainly cause some gnashing of teeth for Floridians. Have a feeling there.might be some slight panic starting today for Floridians.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm waiting patiently for Euro's ensembles to come out, I bet there is a few more ensemble members that shifted either closer to or over FL than its 12z run.

Yep, it's showing several (the most I think it's had in many runs) making landfall in Florida this run.

[NDG]

This is not good!!!!!

[Hammy]

This is not good!!!!!

Major westward shift?

[caneman]

This is not good!!!!!

Major westward shift?

Yes indeed, now you have the Euro and UKMET (off and on) showing near landfall in Florida. Not good! Wonder if next GFS will come more West too.

[NDG]

So far this is how models are performing on timing and track, no surprise the Euro is doing the best at day 4-5 range as JB mentioned yesterday on a tweet.
GFS is doing OK. CMC is doing almost as bad as the HWRF.
HWRF is messing up the TVCN consensus model big time.

[BobHarlem]

That Euro Ensemble (EPS) change is a very large shift west and a good deal slower than yesterday's run.