ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Add me to the list of those who have not written off 92L.

[GCANE]

IMHO, upper level conditions look good.
Vort is over Haiti at the moment.
Not sure if it moves south into the Carib or north into the Bahamas.

[CycloneGuru]

Add me to the list of those who have not written off 92L.

me 3

[Frank P]

I never gave up on 99L (aka Hermine) and have not given up on 92L, but all I see is perhaps a hint of a very broad turning, perhaps in the mid levels, of the circulation off the north coast of Haiti, moving WNW... and looks like a second piece of energy that is SW of Jamaica, which has much more convection but no hints of any circulation, moving due W... as always, pure speculation on my part..

[chaser1]

I never gave up on 99L (aka Hermine) and have not given up on 92L, but all I see is perhaps a hint of a very broad turning, perhaps in the mid levels, of the circulation off the north coast of Haiti, moving WNW... and looks like a second piece of energy that is SW of Jamaica, which has much more convection but no hints of any circulation, moving due W... as always, pure speculation on my part..

I don't know Frank, look at that small feature around 16N and 79W. Definitely some vorticity there at this southern point of the wave associated with 92L

[hipshot]

I never gave up on 99L (aka Hermine) and have not given up on 92L, but all I see is perhaps a hint of a very broad turning, perhaps in the mid levels, of the circulation off the north coast of Haiti, moving WNW... and looks like a second piece of energy that is SW of Jamaica, which has much more convection but no hints of any circulation, moving due W... as always, pure speculation on my part..

I don't know Frank, look at that small feature around 16N and 79W. Definitely some vorticity there at this southern point of the wave associated with 92L

There used to be a page on this site where you go to look a the satellite images, water vapor, IR etc. but I can't find it on the website
anymore. Can some one point me in the right direction?

[Frank P]

I never gave up on 99L (aka Hermine) and have not given up on 92L, but all I see is perhaps a hint of a very broad turning, perhaps in the mid levels, of the circulation off the north coast of Haiti, moving WNW... and looks like a second piece of energy that is SW of Jamaica, which has much more convection but no hints of any circulation, moving due W... as always, pure speculation on my part..

I don't know Frank, look at that small feature around 16N and 79W. Definitely some vorticity there at this southern point of the wave associated with 92L

Yeah chaser1 I do see some low level inflow coming into that area.. after enlarging and speeding up the sat loops on the visibles.... good catch... convection looks to be building up too.. but it looks like it is going to run into Central America as well...

[Frank P]

I never gave up on 99L (aka Hermine) and have not given up on 92L, but all I see is perhaps a hint of a very broad turning, perhaps in the mid levels, of the circulation off the north coast of Haiti, moving WNW... and looks like a second piece of energy that is SW of Jamaica, which has much more convection but no hints of any circulation, moving due W... as always, pure speculation on my part..

I don't know Frank, look at that small feature around 16N and 79W. Definitely some vorticity there at this southern point of the wave associated with 92L

There used to be a page on this site where you go to look a the satellite images, water vapor, IR etc. but I can't find it on the website
anymore. Can some one point me in the right direction?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[Hurricaneman]

I'm going to say that the southern lobe may need to be watched as this may try to develop prior to Central America and the BOC or southern GOM

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hurricaneman]

I also hope this southern Lobe goes into the BOC and into Mexico so it doesn't cause big problems. I really don't want to see another opal especially with what just happened last week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[hipshot]

I don't know Frank, look at that small feature around 16N and 79W. Definitely some vorticity there at this southern point of the wave associated with 92L

There used to be a page on this site where you go to look a the satellite images, water vapor, IR etc. but I can't find it on the website
anymore. Can some one point me in the right direction?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Great, thanks a lot.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah there is considerable energy on that far southern end of the wave has flared a bit today. However, if it tries to develop, it will run into either Belieze or Yucatan P.

I am paying attention to the northen end of the wave and checking to see if convection tries to flare in the area just off Haiti or in the SE Bahamas.

[chaser1]

I never gave up on 99L (aka Hermine) and have not given up on 92L, but all I see is perhaps a hint of a very broad turning, perhaps in the mid levels, of the circulation off the north coast of Haiti, moving WNW... and looks like a second piece of energy that is SW of Jamaica, which has much more convection but no hints of any circulation, moving due W... as always, pure speculation on my part..

I don't know Frank, look at that small feature around 16N and 79W. Definitely some vorticity there at this southern point of the wave associated with 92L

Yeah chaser1 I do see some low level inflow coming into that area.. after enlarging and speeding up the sat loops on the visibles.... good catch... convection looks to be building up too.. but it looks like it is going to run into Central America as well...

Small vorticity seems to becoming slightly better defined but you're probably right as far as running out of space. Might buy itself 1 1/2 additional days of time if there's a chance its heading might be a bit more like 275-280 rather than straight west. Either way, not much time for this small feature but the fact that it is so small might be the one thing going in its favor as far as having any prospects of near term development. Come to think of it, I think this particular feature was that one of the lessor global models might have been attempting to develop but in the south/central Gulf and then move toward Texas or Louisiana.

[chaser1]

Yeah there is considerable energy on that far southern end of the wave has flared a bit today. However, if it tries to develop, it will run into either Belieze or Yucatan P.

I am paying attention to the northen end of the wave and checking to see if convection tries to flare in the area just off Haiti or in the SE Bahamas.

A tiny bit of convection popping off and outflow appears decent (maybe a bit moderate out of the SSW), but over all its just looking pretty lazy and uninspired. Considering this is the first week of September, I really would've thought that any decent waves might be prime candidates for development outside of some unexpected inhospitable conditions. Then again, perhaps the relative high surface pressures and moderate degree of dry air might just be "inhospitable enough". Well enough though. The last thing I want this Sunday is for small craft advisories and white caps while drift fishing with my daughter on one of those head boats out of Haulover.

[Agua]

Yeah chaser1 I do see some low level inflow coming into that area.. after enlarging and speeding up the sat loops on the visibles.... good catch... convection looks to be building up too.. but it looks like it is going to run into Central America as well...

Good place for it.

[Frank P]

I don't know Frank, look at that small feature around 16N and 79W. Definitely some vorticity there at this southern point of the wave associated with 92L

Yeah chaser1 I do see some low level inflow coming into that area.. after enlarging and speeding up the sat loops on the visibles.... good catch... convection looks to be building up too.. but it looks like it is going to run into Central America as well...

Small vorticity seems to becoming slightly better defined but you're probably right as far as running out of space. Might buy itself 1 1/2 additional days of time if there's a chance its heading might be a bit more like 275-280 rather than straight west. Either way, not much time for this small feature but the fact that it is so small might be the one thing going in its favor as far as having any prospects of near term development. Come to think of it, I think this particular feature was that one of the lessor global models might have been attempting to develop but in the south/central Gulf and then move toward Texas or Louisiana.

Well just looked at the vis sat loop and the southern section of the wave certainly appears to have taken on a WNW motion this afternoon... very well could miss Belize and hit the Yucatan... certainly hints of a possible BOC direction... but their is what appears to be a mid level swirl as well just off the coast getting ready to move inland... the northern half of the wave must become dominate if any further develop is to occur... convection also building on the southern have of the wave moving towards the Bahamas..... maybe we'll get a double header out of 92L... ha... unlikely

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2016


Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 74W/75W from 23N
through the Windward Passage to off the coast of Colombia near
12N moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the Total
Precipitable Water Imagery and is along the southwest side of an
upper ridge enhancing the associated convection. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm
west of the wave axis north of 17N and within 120 nm of line
from 17N77W to northeast Nicaragua near 14N84W.

[xironman]

So is this the genesis of the spin off the north coast of Cuba? At the low levels it does not look that bad, but with no models on board I guess it is going nowhere.

[northjaxpro]

So is this the genesis of the spin off the north coast of Cuba? At the low levels it does not look that bad, but with no models on board I guess it is going nowhere.

I still think the vort off the northern coast of Cuba will get going. It is beginning to flare again this afternoon. This is the one I have followed all through the Eastern Caribbean and continues to move w-nw.

[Stormcenter]

I never thought model support was a requirement for tropical development. I've seen it happen before without it. Just saying.

So is this the genesis of the spin off the north coast of Cuba? At the low levels it does not look that bad, but with no models on board I guess it is going nowhere.