ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tigerz3030]

For those of you going back to the time when Matthew was a pouch, I stated on several occasions that I had very uneasy feelings about this system at that time in the long range going out past 10 days. I just never even wantedto stick out myneck to venture any ideas or guesses because of so many complexities in theforecast.

So, not only did we get one of the most powerful tropical cyclones we have seen in many years in the North Atlantic basin, but my worst fears are nearly about to manifest. I hadbad vibes about this system allalo g, but to see this emerge and be at my doorstep in just less than 4 days now, I am just awestruck at this point.

I am so very worried that the ridging just may be building strong enough to push Matthew into landfalling anywhere from Ft. Pierce-Melbourne north to the SC coast Friday'-Saturday timeframe.

This could potentially be devastating for the region. This is the real deal and a storm likely we will be talking about from now and here on forever!!

I'm here with in the WGV area of St Augustine. Do you feel I'm inland enough to not evacuate and what are expecting for us here?

[fci]

It looks like they are forecasting some slowing for this storm. My local forecast a few hours ago had TS cond starting thursday morning. Now they start thursday night and following with Hurricane conditions thru Saturday.





Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. East northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Thursday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78.


Friday
Hurricane conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87.


Friday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Saturday
Hurricane conditions possible. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

That's kind of funny.......

[toad strangler]

Remember the multiple ALL CLEAR calls for FL three and four days ago?

[Alyono]

hurricane conditions are occurring in Haiti now

[1900hurricane]

Yeesh, even on a lower resolution Metop-B pass, Matthew's structure looks stout.

[bg1]

This is the exact opposite of Joaquin. Last year, it looked for several days that Joaquin would hit the East Coast. It wasn't until 12 hours before a Hurricane Watch was needed that it became clear that it would miss.

This time, a miss was the most likely scenario. 12 hours before a watch would be needed, it became clear that it would likely hit the coast

It is the exact opposite... except for the part where SC gets drenched.

[SouthFLTropics]

if you are in a hurricane watch tomorrow you better get ready tomorrow for 100+ winds especially if you are north of palm beach..good luck to whoever gets in the core because its going to be a big deal

Feeling like we're the first ones to bat here in the Treasure Coast.

I agree...I think we will be the first in the CONUS to see Matthew.

[TJRE]

Further north into mid-atlantic/Northeast wouldn't go unaffected either as gfs develops a PRE event as Matthew transitions and interacts with the trough despite being well offshore by then.

NYC Metro Bulls-Eye 7 inches est GFS



http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[tropicwatch]

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 136 knots (157 mph)

Could someone put this in English please?

[ronyan]

I see a report from Les Cayes on the south side of the peninsula of 82 mph sustained gust 105. SE wind

[SunnyThoughts]

136 kt FL, 126 kt SFMR Recon

[BZSTORM]

Social Networking in action just seen a post on a friends facebook page - she said post was Comment 1030 on the Jeff Masters Slamming Hispaniola blog post which she saw approx 14 mins ago which said "Les Cayes, Haiti weather station is now down. Last wind reading was a 105 mph gust of wind."

Also looks like Jamaican Radar is down online.
It's going to be a long night for everyone in these islands tonight. Prayers go out to them all.

[SouthFLTropics]

There is a big nuclear power plant in Juno Beach which I think is St Lucie County. Right on the ocean. I'm sure they are well hardened against hurricanes but it always makes me nervous.

Nuke plant is in St. Lucie County between Jensen Beach and Fort Pierce. Took the eyes of Frances and Jeanne with no issues and also weathered Wilma a year later. I live in St. Lucie County and I'm not concerned at all about the St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant.

[eastcoastFL]

on twitter i saw pic publix supermarket getting busy

I went to Walgreens not too long ago to get batteries and it was getting busy with people looking for supplies. One lady was asking if they sell generators.... Not quite sure if she knew what store she was in.

If you need Chia Pets, Walgreens has got you covered...not sure about generators. Or plywood.

She was a bit strange. High fiving everyone she walked past. I just laughed got my batteries and left.

But on anothet note. Walgreens had a 10 pack of D batteries for $11.99 and you get one free if you buy it. So if you need batteries its a good deal.

[ronyan]

136 kt FL, 126 kt SFMR Recon

Think they will go 150 mph with that? It is at least maintaining.

[northjaxpro]

Tigerz3030, I would say being that far inland in northern St.Johns County, the thing I would be really concerned about are all those loose objects around the yard, trim any tree limbs or branched that could become dangerous flying debris when those high winds ensue. This is the main thing O will be doibg in my yard starting tomorrow. O live in a area with trees around. Now is the time to secure yourhome from these things.

There will likely be evacuations at or near the beaches and along the Intracoastal Waterway I feel certain about that.

[dexterlabio]

Matthew has sure affected/will be affecting a lot of landmass...from South American up to NE US. Aside from being the first Cat5 in 9 years, this might also be a contender for the costliest hurricane in recent years.

[Aric Dunn]

winds may go up to 150 at 2am.. recon showing plenty of evidence.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

This is the exact opposite of Joaquin. Last year, it looked for several days that Joaquin would hit the East Coast. It wasn't until 12 hours before a Hurricane Watch was needed that it became clear that it would miss.

This time, a miss was the most likely scenario. 12 hours before a watch would be needed, it became clear that it would likely hit the coast

It is the exact opposite... except for the part where SC gets drenched.

SE NC received significant flooding too. Wilmington Riverfest was flooded out last year (literally 3 foot of river rise on downtown streets), and looks like it will be again this year as well.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 136 knots (157 mph)

Could someone put this in English please?

In the sonde that was dropped from the plane, if you averaged the winds from around 500 feet to the surface, they were 157mph. The sonde is constantly falling, so you can't get 1 minute sustained winds. They are momentary winds. But it shows that there are some high winds close to the surface in that location. The momentary wind at the surface at that point was 142mph.