ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WHYB630]

12z GFS t@126: trough tilted negative. It might bring Matt back to northeast

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

The Canadian has also made a very large west shift

[tolakram]

[NDG]

The GFS is trending towards the Euro for Thurs-Friday time frame.
The GFS is trash in the 5 day range when compared to the Euro most times, period.

In terms of the track it is. In terms of the trough over the central US it's actually moved away from the Euro. GFS now has a strong almost negative tilt trough where the Euro has almost nothing. It may actually work out where those two scenarios mean further west where the moderately strong but faster trough the GFS had meant Matthew is further east.

I don't think the strength of the trough has that much to do with it, is the timing that the GFS has been trending towards the Euro of a slower progression eastward giving time for heights to build to the north of Matthew.

[MississippiWx]

Models should start keying in on the strength of the ridge soon. Supposed to be offshore the Florida East Coast within 72 hours. We are getting close to the time when model accuracy goes up. The westward trend this late in the game is not a good one for the East Coast.

[WeatherEmperor]

The Canadian has also made a very large west shift

Post the Ukmet...when possible


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[tolakram]

[SunnyThoughts]

That landfall area is where, North of Charleston...Myrtle beach area?

[tolakram]

Post the Ukmet...when possible

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/782976503764189186

[tgenius]

Post the Ukmet...when possible

Mark that's an older run right? I thought UKMET hasn't run yet this afternoon? If not, UKMET looks to be right of the GFS that is running.

[chris_fit]

Post the Ukmet...when possible

[img]http://i.imgur.com/Kn6a3h1.png[/img

that run is 2 days old

[Evil Jeremy]

Post the Ukmet...when possible

http://i.imgur.com/Kn6a3h1.png

That's the 00z, right? I can't find the text data for the new run yet... A few minutes though.

[tolakram]

Mark that's an older run right? I thought UKMET hasn't run yet this afternoon? If not, UKMET looks to be right of the GFS that is running.

It's the only graphic I can find, it should be last nights run, the 12Z either has just come out or will be coming out. That is the 100300 run.

[Alyono]

Uh oh, spaghetti-os

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2016 0 15.1N 74.9W 975 63
0000UTC 04.10.2016 12 16.7N 74.5W 975 61
1200UTC 04.10.2016 24 18.1N 74.1W 980 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 36 19.7N 74.0W 978 62
1200UTC 05.10.2016 48 21.4N 74.5W 981 62
0000UTC 06.10.2016 60 23.0N 75.7W 979 64
1200UTC 06.10.2016 72 24.4N 77.3W 976 65
0000UTC 07.10.2016 84 25.8N 79.0W 972 63
1200UTC 07.10.2016 96 27.6N 80.3W 961 72
0000UTC 08.10.2016 108 29.7N 81.3W 962 69
1200UTC 08.10.2016 120 32.0N 81.3W 972 58
0000UTC 09.10.2016 132 34.2N 79.6W 990 42
1200UTC 09.10.2016 144 38.1N 76.4W 995 41

[gatorcane]

The Canadian has also made a very large west shift

Yes and it is still faster than the GFS, so it could shift west more in the Bahamas if it were slower. A lot more ridging on these 12Z models.

[Dean4Storms]

What should be of even more concern for Florida is that 12z Sounding in Bermuda of the ridge at 590dm instead of 588dm.

[NDG]

Post the Ukmet...when possible

http://i.imgur.com/Kn6a3h1.png

Last night's run, anybody has the 12z run?

[JPmia]

These short term trends are not good.. we're getting into the 72hr window now.. this is why the NHC has been keeping the word Florida in their discussions.