ATL: MATTHEW - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5141 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:21 am

Alyono wrote:Uh oh, spaghetti-os

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2016 0 15.1N 74.9W 975 63
0000UTC 04.10.2016 12 16.7N 74.5W 975 61
1200UTC 04.10.2016 24 18.1N 74.1W 980 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 36 19.7N 74.0W 978 62
1200UTC 05.10.2016 48 21.4N 74.5W 981 62
0000UTC 06.10.2016 60 23.0N 75.7W 979 64
1200UTC 06.10.2016 72 24.4N 77.3W 976 65
0000UTC 07.10.2016 84 25.8N 79.0W 972 63
1200UTC 07.10.2016 96 27.6N 80.3W 961 72
0000UTC 08.10.2016 108 29.7N 81.3W 962 69
1200UTC 08.10.2016 120 32.0N 81.3W 972 58
0000UTC 09.10.2016 132 34.2N 79.6W 990 42
1200UTC 09.10.2016 144 38.1N 76.4W 995 41


BIG shift back west by the UKMET...basically rides up the FL east coast.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5142 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:21 am

Alyono wrote:Uh oh, spaghetti-os

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2016 0 15.1N 74.9W 975 63
0000UTC 04.10.2016 12 16.7N 74.5W 975 61
1200UTC 04.10.2016 24 18.1N 74.1W 980 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 36 19.7N 74.0W 978 62
1200UTC 05.10.2016 48 21.4N 74.5W 981 62
0000UTC 06.10.2016 60 23.0N 75.7W 979 64
1200UTC 06.10.2016 72 24.4N 77.3W 976 65
0000UTC 07.10.2016 84 25.8N 79.0W 972 63
1200UTC 07.10.2016 96 27.6N 80.3W 961 72
0000UTC 08.10.2016 108 29.7N 81.3W 962 69
1200UTC 08.10.2016 120 32.0N 81.3W 972 58
0000UTC 09.10.2016 132 34.2N 79.6W 990 42
1200UTC 09.10.2016 144 38.1N 76.4W 995 41


Inland south of Jacksonville... That's a headache!
1 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4238
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5143 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:22 am

Alyono wrote:Uh oh, spaghetti-os

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2016 0 15.1N 74.9W 975 63
0000UTC 04.10.2016 12 16.7N 74.5W 975 61
1200UTC 04.10.2016 24 18.1N 74.1W 980 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 36 19.7N 74.0W 978 62
1200UTC 05.10.2016 48 21.4N 74.5W 981 62
0000UTC 06.10.2016 60 23.0N 75.7W 979 64
1200UTC 06.10.2016 72 24.4N 77.3W 976 65
0000UTC 07.10.2016 84 25.8N 79.0W 972 63
1200UTC 07.10.2016 96 27.6N 80.3W 961 72
0000UTC 08.10.2016 108 29.7N 81.3W 962 69
1200UTC 08.10.2016 120 32.0N 81.3W 972 58
0000UTC 09.10.2016 132 34.2N 79.6W 990 42
1200UTC 09.10.2016 144 38.1N 76.4W 995 41


Blast you UKMET and your terrible news!!! That's on my doorstep!!!
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2177
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5144 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:22 am

3 US landfalls in that GFS Run, SC/NC border, out near Nags head, then cape cod, then Maine.
0 likes   
Top
stormlover2013

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5145 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:23 am

i have a feeling by wed we will have a good grasp it will keep shifting west
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5146 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:23 am

UKM quick plot

Image

Tool is here: http://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=2299955
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15448
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5147 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:23 am

Have to give credit to the UKMET for sniffing out the pattern setting up a few days ago, too bad is so insonsistent.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5315
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5148 Postby Nimbus » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:24 am

MississippiWx wrote:Models should start keying in on the strength of the ridge soon. Supposed to be offshore the Florida East Coast within 72 hours. We are getting close to the time when model accuracy goes up. The westward trend this late in the game is not a good one for the East Coast.


I agree, yesterday we were talking about a stronger ridge due to various factors like the loop delay and the larger outflow pumping the ridge. Hopefully the big jumps west in the latest runs only end up causing some line slap for Florida, but a stronger ridge is real trouble further north.
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4031
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5149 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:25 am

Remember NAM has landfall at WPB. I'm still expecting more west shifts. Can't believe this ridge is stronger than what models predicted.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5150 Postby Raebie » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:26 am

NC coast is gonna get crushed on this latest run. Not good.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2841
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5151 Postby blp » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:27 am

NDG wrote:Have to give credit to the UKMET for sniffing out the pattern setting up a few days ago, too bad is so insonsistent.


Yes, I am no expert but I agree it seems like the UKmet has performed well with the NW turn in the Bahamas.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5152 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:27 am

NDG wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
NDG wrote:The GFS is trending towards the Euro for Thurs-Friday time frame.
The GFS is trash in the 5 day range when compared to the Euro most times, period.


In terms of the track it is. In terms of the trough over the central US it's actually moved away from the Euro. GFS now has a strong almost negative tilt trough where the Euro has almost nothing. It may actually work out where those two scenarios mean further west where the moderately strong but faster trough the GFS had meant Matthew is further east.


I don't think the strength of the trough has that much to do with it, is the timing that the GFS has been trending towards the Euro of a slower progression eastward giving time for heights to build to the north of Matthew.


I'm not sure if it's slower = more ridging, or a quicker progression of the New England mid-level low that's closing off the weakness quicker therefore leading to slower movement.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4825
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5153 Postby ronjon » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:27 am

Alyono wrote:Uh oh, spaghetti-os

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2016 0 15.1N 74.9W 975 63
0000UTC 04.10.2016 12 16.7N 74.5W 975 61
1200UTC 04.10.2016 24 18.1N 74.1W 980 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 36 19.7N 74.0W 978 62
1200UTC 05.10.2016 48 21.4N 74.5W 981 62
0000UTC 06.10.2016 60 23.0N 75.7W 979 64
1200UTC 06.10.2016 72 24.4N 77.3W 976 65
0000UTC 07.10.2016 84 25.8N 79.0W 972 63
1200UTC 07.10.2016 96 27.6N 80.3W 961 72
0000UTC 08.10.2016 108 29.7N 81.3W 962 69
1200UTC 08.10.2016 120 32.0N 81.3W 972 58
0000UTC 09.10.2016 132 34.2N 79.6W 990 42
1200UTC 09.10.2016 144 38.1N 76.4W 995 41


Damn into the Fl peninsula - Ft Pierce-Vero Landfall then N-NW east of Orlando to St Augustine.

http://www.mapsofworld.com/usa/states/florida/lat-long.html
Last edited by ronjon on Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4238
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5154 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:27 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Remember NAM has landfall at WPB. I'm still expecting more west shifts. Can't believe this ridge is stronger than what models predicted.


I'm not all that surprised considering how strong it's been all Summer. Combine that with what appears to be Fall pattern being 3 to 4 weeks behind.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5155 Postby sponger » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:28 am

Agree. Looks like a August pattern.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Slughitter3
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Huntingtown, MD

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5156 Postby Slughitter3 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:29 am

tolakram wrote:UKM quick plot

Image

Tool is here: http://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=2299955



That last point is literally in the middle of my County... I'm not a fan of that one.
0 likes   
I'm a weather-loving Coastie.
This post is only an opinion not a forecast. Please refer to the NHC and local NWS offices for forecasts.

Shawn
Top
User avatar
p1nheadlarry
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
Location: SR County FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5157 Postby p1nheadlarry » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:29 am

Welp the 12z GFS is just about as bad of a scenario for me as it gets, though northeast is better than due north for those on the west side of the CFR
0 likes   
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10157
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5158 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:30 am

tolakram wrote:UKM quick plot

Image

Tool is here: http://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=2299955


Very rare to get a North Florida/GA landfall from deep tropics... Usually the trend will be stronger ridge pushing system south of Vero Florida or trend East of GA/SC line...
Last edited by Blown Away on Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
p1nheadlarry
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
Location: SR County FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5159 Postby p1nheadlarry » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:30 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Remember NAM has landfall at WPB. I'm still expecting more west shifts. Can't believe this ridge is stronger than what models predicted.


I'm not all that surprised considering how strong it's been all Summer. Combine that with what appears to be Fall pattern being 3 to 4 weeks behind.


WPC stated that October would be above average in temperatures for much of the eastern seaboard and south. Tack that on to verifying that.
0 likes   
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
Top
User avatar
p1nheadlarry
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
Location: SR County FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5160 Postby p1nheadlarry » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:32 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:That landfall area is where, North of Charleston...Myrtle beach area?


Looks to be north and east of Myrtle, almost the same spot that Hazel made landfall at in 1954...odd
0 likes   
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests