ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[stormlover2013]

big question is how much more will it shift west????? that's going to be the interesting part

[Blown Away]

UKM quick plot



Tool is here: http://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=2299955

Very rare to get a North Florida/GA Atlantic side landfall from deep tropics...Usually the trend will be stronger ridge pushing system south of Vero Florida or trend East of GA/SC line...

[HurricaneBelle]

After raking the Carolinas, 12Z GFS has two more landfalls in store: Cape Cod (here) and then onto Maine:

[PTrackerLA]

12z CMC big shift west leads to NC landfall

[Hurricaneman]

GFS makes 2nd US landfall in Nantucket, there is still a possibility of a 3 US landfall Hurricane with all these west shifts

Edit: maybe a 4th in Maine

[tolakram]

Take the discussion here please: viewtopic.php?p=2553127#p2553127

Thanks.

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW, JoeB tweeted that he thinks the GFS is still too fast. Leads me to believe he thinks there will be a west shift on the Euro in the 3-5 range and an east shift 5 days plus. Of course we all know his bias towards the Euro. Unfortunately, he may be right.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z CMC big shift west leads to NC landfall

http://i.imgur.com/vFN3CMY.png

How close does the CMC bring Matthew to Florida?

[chris_fit]

12z CMC big shift west leads to NC landfall

http://i.imgur.com/vFN3CMY.png

How close does the CMC bring Matthew to Florida?

This looks like the closest point... well offshore....

[LarryWx]

UKM quick plot



Tool is here: http://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=2299955

Very rare to get a North Florida/GA landfall from deep tropics... Usually the trend will be stronger ridge pushing system south of Vero Florida or trend East of GA/SC line...

In Oct, a track in the E GOM just W of W FL has been more common than this if I'm not mistaken. Also, if the W trends continue, runs are possibly going to start showing tracks near the Keys to far E GOM by late tomorrow or Wed. All it would take would be a 150 mile W shift from the 12Z UK.

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW, HWRF is a degree slower at 24 hours versus 06z. Take it with a spoonful of salt considering how poorly it has performed. I think it is still too fast.

[TJRE]

NAM outlook FWIW

[birddogsc]

Landfall. One can only hope the GFS is wrong again.

Can you say HUGO II ?

A little north, but yes. That is the southern Grand Strand area, and evac will be a mess.

Local WX folks are not sold on the trend west. The term finger ridge was brought up on a recent call and was dismissed. When will the next Euro run start?

[gatorcane]

HUGE shift west by the NAVGEM in the Bahamas out through 66 hours. Heading WNW towards the SE FL coastline.

[tolakram]

Local WX folks are not sold on the trend west. The term finger ridge was brought up on a recent call and was dismissed. When will the next Euro run start?

1:45ish EDT

[alienstorm]

UKMET has been forecasting this setup for a few days, I stated this yesterday you can tell the HIGH is stronger here in SE Fla. A brisk ESE wind and thunderstorms moving inland during the afternoon that tell me the high pressure ridge is stronger.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM heading towards SE Florida:

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well, its "just one run" however it's getting into the 5 day mark where the likelihood of a Carolinas hit is really getting uncomfortable. Not panicking yet, but over the next 2 days, we'll know for with pretty good certainty. The more zonal flow of the trough was a concern and the mid level low off the eastern US looks pretty filled on the GFS, ECMWF and the CMC. The NAM also look to be this way ( not looking at NAM for tropical solutions) That's the bigger concern is consensus among all of these on the stronger ridge, which for us Carolinians is always the scary feature to see develop.

[SouthFLTropics]

HUGE shift west by the NAVGEM in the Bahamas out through 66 hours. Heading WNW towards the SE FL coastline.

Tidbits isn't working for the NAVGEM. The hours aren't loading. Where are you getting your data from?

[gatorcane]

HUGE shift west by the NAVGEM in the Bahamas out through 66 hours. Heading WNW towards the SE FL coastline.

Tidbits isn't working for the NAVGEM. The hours aren't loading. Where are you getting your data from?

This site:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical