ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

I must've been correct, this thing had to have completed a quick semi-ERC before landfall, it's eye looks better than ever.

[cjrciadt]

I've been here since 05. Not even Rita, Wilma, Ivan or even Kat were this scary looking at landfall!!

[GCANE]

Cameras outside the International Space Station captured dramatic views of major Hurricane Matthew Oct. 3 as the orbital complex flew 250 miles over the storm at 4:15pm EDT.



Link: https://youtu.be/HE1WhCEpEU8

[northjaxpro]

That GPM pass image is nearly textbook with the eyewall paassing through the Windward Passage. That is an awestruck image. WOW!!

[OuterBanker]

The Nags Head fishing tournament has been cancelled this weekend. The first time in 66 yrs.

To be honest it is a bit difficult to cast in a hurricane.

[MGC]

Matthew is very impressive this morning. Praying for the people of Haiti. Land interaction should knock down Matthew a bit. Key will be how intact the core is after interaction with those tall mountains. After that it appears Matthew will take the Windward Passage into the Atlantic Ocean. Hopefully Matthew remains on an east of north course, I think that will lessen the risk to the east coast....MGC

[Nimbus]

They were going door to door last night . Unfortunately probably some living out on the end of the peninsula couldn't be convinced to take the bus to Port au Prince. Looks like just a dirt road running along the coast around the periphery of the mountain range. They won't be able to get ATV's in there for rescue efforts possibly till tonight or tomorrow its at least 6 hours from Port au Prince.

The forecast for the US is dependent on how a trough splits in the future, not too many years ago we would not have forecast that at this point.

[bob rulz]

I have a hard time believing this was still 145 at landfall. I would guess 150-155, it really pulled itself together in those last couple of hours. It's too bad recon is going to miss the landfall intensity, will be curious to see if they can get there before significant weakening or if it evens weakens very significantly (although it does look like it's going to pass over tall mountains).

Even though there's tall mountains here, I'm not convinced it will be significantly affected because of how narrow the land is here, although some weakening can certainly be expected.

[NDG]

[AdamFirst]

With the current track's approach, plus with the anticipated expansion of the wind field due to interaction with Haiti and possibly Cuba, I fully expect hurricane conditions on shore here in the Treasure Coast. Not sure about Palm Beach and points south but north of Palm Beach looks to be under the gun here.

(This is just my projection, please consult your local NWS forecast for details specific to your area)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

mountains tearing Matt up a bit could actually make things a little worse, causing center wind field to widen out more and expand storm's diameter. It then will have time over water to restrengthen again a little, but now it is a much bigger storm, so when it gets closer to FL coast, teh effects can be felt further inland even if the path is right at the coast. Les severe, but further out will feel the impacts.
However, sustained winds over 100 miles an hour raking up the entire coastline is going to suck no matter how you look at it. HUGE evacuation potential here. Floyd comes to mind. Hopefully this one does something like that...stays well fo the coast...but this time ots before carolinas! not likely, but can hope!

[NDG]

Recon should be able to be on the other side of the Peninsula strip to see what kind of a shape it re-emerges into over water after tracking through that high terrain. It should be interesting.

[Nimbus]

Highest current probabilities for the mainland ConUS still under 50% for 50 plus knots.

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 55(65) 9(74) 1(75)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 7(41) X(41)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22)

[stormchasr]

Judging by the significant trough coming from the east, I would not be at all surprised if Matthew missed the east coast altogether. Refer to the WV satellite. Just my opinion, of course.

[USTropics]

Appears there is a Miami Herald correspondent in Haiti that will be giving update via Twitter:

 https://twitter.com/Jacquiecharles/status/783260866917478400

[HURRICANELONNY]

Help. Can someone get the chatroom up and runnin. Didnt work yesterday. Then it did and now back to same statement

[GCANE]

Live Feed from Haiti

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMDE8SLURqs

[CourierPR]

Matthew is very impressive this morning. Praying for the people of Haiti. Land interaction should knock down Matthew a bit. Key will be how intact the core is after interaction with those tall mountains. After that it appears Matthew will take the Windward Passage into the Atlantic Ocean. Hopefully Matthew remains on an east of north course, I think that will lessen the risk to the east coast....MGC

It is back on the north heading, not east of north.

[AlabamaDave]

Les Cayes is a city of 80,000, so this area of Haiti receiving the core is fairly heavily populated. Very sad and devastating situation for one of the world's poorest nations.

[HURRICANELONNY]

CANNOT SEND TO CHANNEL. Thats the statement in chatroom.