ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[xironman]

Ridging continues to get stronger in most recent model runs. Not good.

So, how long has it been since Myrtle Beach ended up with a strong hurricane on its doorstep?

[tolakram]

[WPBWeather]

Big West at 96.

[SunnyThoughts]

949 mb at hour 96 above

[xironman]

it can break down the ridge and make it weaker so yeah it can affect it

Problem is the models are under-estimating it to start with, so even if they do have a Nicole from 98L, the fact the ridge is stronger to start means it STILL goes further west than progged.

And if "future Nichole" actually developed it would push Matt back south from the mid-point.

[NDG]

If anything it looks like the 12z Euro shifted even a little more west than last night's run, maybe by 20-30 miles or so through 96 hrs.

[tolakram]

Trend. Remember this is 12Z to 12Z, not 12Z to 0Z.

[AutoPenalti]

Big West at 96.

Due west? Or WNW?

[Alyono]

Its not THAT different from the 0Z. The difference you see on TT is because it is comparing with the run from 24 hours ago, not 12 hours ago

[SouthernBreeze]

if trend has been W here lately, couldn't it keep continuing this W trend even further?

[KWT]

Really not far off the Florida at 96hrs now, probably getting TS force gusts at least on the east coast of Florida. Ridging still holding on as well to the north-east.

Think we are heading for a GA/SC landfall on the 12z run before it curves NNE/NE.

[Alyono]

Big West at 96.

Due west? Or WNW?

more like between NW and NNW at 72 to 96 hours on the EC

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the ridge is a little weaker than the 0Z run, hard to tell since it's 12 hours different with 24 hour frames. Looks similar.

This run looks very similar to 00z. Not seeing much of a time difference or west/east shift. That said, it is very different from yesterday's 12z.

[WPBWeather]

Big West at 96.

Due west? Or WNW?

more like between NW and NNW at 72 to 96 hours on the EC

Looks west on my graphic but its so close to FL now

[SouthFLTropics]

Really not far off the Florida at 96hrs now, probably getting TS force gusts at least on the east coast of Florida. Ridging still holding on as well to the north-east.

Think we are heading for a GA/SC landfall on the 12z run before it curves NNE/NE.

Angle of approach means everything when it comes to these model runs. A slight wobble left and you are dealing with the mirror image of Hurricane Charley, just in the opposite direction.

[alienstorm]

goes over Grand Bahama Island

[tolakram]

[NDG]

Looks like landfall at least NC on this run.

[xironman]

LOL, 120, "Nichole" moves counterclockwise! Makes me think I am looking at the CMC.

[ThetaE]

That's west of the 00z Euro at 144, which had a motion of NE at that time, so it's shifted west some from that run.