ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Florida1118]

CANNOT SEND TO CHANNEL. Thats the statement in chatroom.

Yeah, you're not voiced. Take a deep breath; the moderators will voice everyone when they can (they need to sleep too). People in there have to be voiced due to some very annoying trolls who create nothing but panic, misinformation, and insults.

[O Town]

CANNOT SEND TO CHANNEL. Thats the statement in chatroom.

Mibbit working for me....

[windnrain]

We've got a chat up at /r/tropicalweather (for those who reddit).

[HURRICANELONNY]

Somebody wake up its prime time. Most likely the last big threat of the year. GET THE CHATROOM RUNNING.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, are we in the clear here in the Wilmington, NC area?

[Nimbus]

With the current track's approach, plus with the anticipated expansion of the wind field due to interaction with Haiti and possibly Cuba, I fully expect hurricane conditions on shore here in the Treasure Coast. Not sure about Palm Beach and points south but north of Palm Beach looks to be under the gun here.

(This is just my projection, please consult your local NWS forecast for details specific to your area)

It will have to track through the Bahamas first and current probabilities seen to favor a track east of Andros island.

GREAT EXUMA 34 2 18(20) 64(84) 11(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X 2( 2) 49(51) 25(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 30(30) 25(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57)

Brown

[Hypercane_Kyle]

First pass shows pressures in the southern eyewall are around 940mb (they weren't able to fix the eye directly). Haven't sampled the highest winds yet either. The eye could emerge back over water during this recon mission.

[kiblet]

They were going door to door last night . Unfortunately probably some living out on the end of the peninsula couldn't be convinced to take the bus to Port au Prince. Looks like just a dirt road running along the coast around the periphery of the mountain range. They won't be able to get ATV's in there for rescue efforts possibly till tonight or tomorrow its at least 6 hours from Port au Prince.

The forecast for the US is dependent on how a trough splits in the future, not too many years ago we would not have forecast that at this point.

I heard from a friend of mine who does mission work in the Port-a-Piment area where landfall has apparently taken place. He said last night that Route 25 is dirt at the very tip of the peninsula, but near Port-a-Piment it's paved. Unfortunately it's been significantly damaged, so it will take a lot longer than 6 hours to get rescue efforts to that area.

[jhpigott]

With the current track's approach, plus with the anticipated expansion of the wind field due to interaction with Haiti and possibly Cuba, I fully expect hurricane conditions on shore here in the Treasure Coast. Not sure about Palm Beach and points south but north of Palm Beach looks to be under the gun here.

(This is just my projection, please consult your local NWS forecast for details specific to your area)

It will have to track through the Bahamas first and current probabilities seen to favor a track east of Andros island.

GREAT EXUMA 34 2 18(20) 64(84) 11(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X 2( 2) 49(51) 25(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 30(30) 25(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57)

Brown

Andros may be a good check point. If Matthew passes east of Andros, I think he will stay just off shore. Over or west of Andros and we'll probably have a brush with the coast or landfall somewhere from PBC north to Canaveral IMO

[GCANE]

US National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Matthew made landfall at 7 a.m. near Les Anglais in western Haiti.

[Prof]

Hello, new here and learning a lot. Recently moved to the space coast from the Midwest and I am not sure what I would be doing for preparations. We own a house about 12 miles from the ocean. Shutters up today? I have hotel reservations on the gulf coast for Wednesday to Sunday. I have small kids and would prefer to not go too long without power but I'm not sure if I should stay out or go.

[northjaxpro]

So, are we in the clear here in the Wilmington, NC area?

NO.

[znel52]

So, are we in the clear here in the Wilmington, NC area?

Not by a long shot. See the cone? Wilmington is in it.

[brunota2003]

First pass shows pressures in the southern eyewall are around 940mb (they weren't able to fix the eye directly). Haven't sampled the highest winds yet either. The eye could emerge back over water during this recon mission.

940.8mb extrapolated pressure from flight level, with 39 knot winds. Rule of thumb is 10 knots = 1mb, generally...so an "extrapolated" extrapolated pressure of about 937mb

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, are we in the clear here in the Wilmington, NC area?

Not by a long shot. See the cone? Wilmington is in it.

Yeah thought models trended east though.

[abajan]

With Haiti the wind factor is not the main issue; it has always been the flooding. Yes the winds will be devastating for a small portion of the country but if there's a killer it's going to be that 15-30+ inches of rain.

It can't be stressed often enough that records show inland flooding to be the main cause of death in hurricanes, not wind.

[RL3AO]

So, are we in the clear here in the Wilmington, NC area?

Not by a long shot. See the cone? Wilmington is in it.

Yeah thought models trended east though.

Maybe by 15 miles.

[USTropics]

Some pictures, videos, and tweets from those on the ground in Haiti:

 https://twitter.com/KarlJeanJeune/status/783269648523493377





 https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/783274815654420481



 https://twitter.com/YojaLeon/status/783273037231710208



 https://twitter.com/jgabrielfortune/status/783253772587954176




 https://twitter.com/Jacquiecharles/status/783232220139954176

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Peak SFMR of 118 knots on the western quadrant of the eyewall, still not where the most intense winds are either.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Not by a long shot. See the cone? Wilmington is in it.

Yeah thought models trended east though.

Maybe by 15 miles.

You think it keeps trending east?