ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[AutoPenalti]

12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:

Look at that ridge...builds in much like how it was forecasted long before.

[Nimbus]

SFWMD 18Z:

yeah, look at all the gfs members now over florida. 18z gfs is likely to come follow suit.

Late getting reservations at the Holiday Inn?
Hopefully it all happens on the right.

[adam0983]

My shutters are on standby right now with that track. Looks like an august weather pattern right now strong ridge has been there all summer here in south Florida been very dry.

[fox13weather]

12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:

Look at that ridge...builds in much like how it was forecasted long before.

That would be known as an "outlier" Everyone wants to find the model that will cause the most havoc and then run with it. In reality, the chance of it verifying is slim.

[stormlover2013]

yeah more than likely won't happen but never say never with how up and down these models have changed

[tarheelprogrammer]

12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:

Look at that ridge...builds in much like how it was forecasted long before.

That would be known as an "outlier" Everyone wants to find the model that will cause the most havoc and then run with it. In reality, the chance of it verifying is slim.

You think the models are right about a possible NC strike? Or SC strike?

[BensonTCwatcher]

NHC would likely have to shift west on the official track as it's really on the east of the guidance. GFS and ECMWF are singing from the same page in the songbook pretty much. Still differences in the synoptic set up for each and they could both be wrong. Cant tell you how many storms are set for a Myrtle Beach landfall that end up turning east, just grazing the coast, or in the end or weakening drastically. I am now hoping for any/all of the above vs what is shaping up to real trouble. The ridging at 120-144 hours is coming into pretty good agreement.

Of course Haiti will be a disaster and Cuba will have major impacts no matter what.

[SouthDadeFish]

The NAVGEM was one of the worst performing models last season and for previous years as well. I would not consider it to be a reliable model. It is definitely an outlier for now.

[sponger]

The NAVGEM was one of the worst performing models last season and for previous years as well. I would not consider it to be a reliable model. It is definitely an outlier for now.

Like the GFDL, sure fun to watch!

[miamijaaz]

The NAVGEM was one of the worst performing models last season and for previous years as well. I would not consider it to be a reliable model. It is definitely an outlier for now.

Why does it always seem like the worst performing models forecast the worst possible scenarios?

[OntarioEggplant]

The NAVGEM was one of the worst performing models last season and for previous years as well. I would not consider it to be a reliable model. It is definitely an outlier for now.

Why does it always seem like the worst performing models forecast the worst possible scenarios?

Because they have less consistency, they're more likely to hit such spots than a model that is very consistent.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:
https://s12.postimg.org/bc3ckwhdp/100f8 ... ce0530.gif

Look at that ridge...builds in much like how it was forecasted long before.

That would be known as an "outlier" Everyone wants to find the model that will cause the most havoc and then run with it. In reality, the chance of it verifying is slim.

Yes outlier as far as far as getting into the Eastern Gulf and west coast of Florida but there is cluster of 00Z ECMWF ensembles that have Matthew coming ashore the SE Florida coastline from as far south as the middle keys all the way up through the Treasure coast along the east coast of Florida.

Very curious what the 12Z ECMWF ensembles show, should be out in the next hour.

[meriland23]

I have been rather busy the past few days so my upkeep on the storm has been spotty. Can someone fill me in on the current trajectory changes, specifically the changes in the ridge and trough? Seems to wax wane and depend on those.

[ronjon]

NAVGEM as an individual model performer is terrible - however, the fact that the ridge is stronger in observed height rises than what was placed in the GFS model argues that perhaps further westward shifts may happen in the models. UKMET has the strongest ridging now and is a more reliable model so we'll see the model trends over the next few cycles.

[stormreader]

NAVGEM as an individual model performer is terrible - however, the fact that the ridge is stronger in observed height rises than what was placed in the GFS model argues that perhaps further westward shifts may happen in the models. UKMET has the strongest ridging now and is a more reliable model so we'll see the model trends over the next few cycles.

Would definitely argue for further shifts west. You have to look how far west things have come just in the last 36 hours or so. With the ridging, the possibility of any shifts back east seem remote. But further west shifts are much more likely.

[Steve]

I don't think the GFS will quite verify, but if it does, it's a multi-billion dollar damage storm. It just sort of runs the outline of on or near the US Coast from South Carolina to Maine. That's not too often (I guess Donna was one of those back before I was born) that happens. The ridging, I don't have a problem with, and it's a good thing that this will probably head north and miss the "third" ridge which would likely block it further. We'll get enough out of this to last a while.

[Kazmit]

These models show potentially the worst possible track that Matt could take. I'm expecting a west shift for 5pm.

[TheHook210]

NAVGEM as an individual model performer is terrible - however, the fact that the ridge is stronger in observed height rises than what was placed in the GFS model argues that perhaps further westward shifts may happen in the models. UKMET has the strongest ridging now and is a more reliable model so we'll see the model trends over the next few cycles.

Would definitely argue for further shifts west. You have to look how far west things have come just in the last 36 hours or so. With the ridging, the possibility of any shifts back east seem remote. But further west shifts are much more likely.

Not sure if I can post this in the model thread but it seems due to the west shifts, the governer of FL has just declared a state of emergency.

[ronjon]

From Dr Jeff Masters Blog:

A significant westward shift in computer model guidance on Hurricane Matthew has occurred, and this could have big implications for the hurricane’s potential impact on the U.S. East Coast. The main reason appears to be stronger ridging south of 98L and north of Matthew than earlier predicted, which may help to nudge Matthew far enough west for major impacts along the Southeast U.S. coast. Last night’s 50 ensemble runs from the 00Z Monday European model included a number of tracks making landfall along the U.S. East Coast. Most concerning is that, for the first time in Matthew’s life, all four members of the Euro “high-probability” cluster--the members that most closely match the operational run--depict Matthew making landfall on Florida’s East Coast. (The 12Z Monday run of the NAM model also depicts the stronger ridge and suggests a Florida landfall, but the NAM is not designed to handle tropical cyclones and should be avoided for hurricane prediction, unless perhaps you’re Bart Simpson.)

Lending further credence to the westward shift are the latest 12Z Monday operational runs of our other two top track models, the GFS and UKMET. The 12Z UKMET brings Matthew into the East Coast of Florida, while the GFS brings Matthew considerably closer to the Florida coast than earlier runs, with a projected landfall in northern South Carolina this weekend (see Figure 4 below) and a second landfall on Cape Cod less than 36 hours later. The several previous operational GFS runs had suggested that a Southeast landfall would be limited to the NC Outer Banks at most. Likewise, the 12Z Monday GFS ensembles (GEFS) now include a majority of runs making landfall somewhere between Florida and North Carolina, a major shift west from previous GFS ensembles. In addition, the 12Z Monday run of the HWRF model is tracking about 1 degree (roughly 60 miles) west of its previous two runs, now showing a potential landfall in eastern North Carolina by late Friday.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3460

[terstorm1012]

I have been rather busy the past few days so my upkeep on the storm has been spotty. Can someone fill me in on the current trajectory changes, specifically the changes in the ridge and trough? Seems to wax wane and depend on those.

closer to the coast, still as slow, we've got all week to watch and worry. anxiously awaiting new model runs that incorporate the 4-times-a-day balloon releases and gulfstream recon data.