ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

12 UKMET at 84 hours just off SE Florida:

[emeraldislenc]

So it looks like a good chance for a NC landfall? Are the odds increasing?

[SouthernBreeze]

If follows that UKMET, looks like would be minimal disruption from land of Cuba/Haiti, although both their flooding will be devastating

[NDG]

Update on Models' error so far with with Matthew. GFS is not doing too bad through 84 hr but the Euro has clear lead closer to day 5.
HWRF continues to do horrible, making the TVCN look bad.

[jlauderdal]

12 UKMET at 84 hours just off SE Florida:

matt does a nice job of avoiding a direct hit with the mountains of eastern cuba on this run and then makes an efficient run at florida...compare that track to the current nhc track..one of them is way wrong..nhc is going ot have to start coming clean with their track starting at 5..im not suggesting they bring it onshore anywhere but they will need to start bending towards the coast someplace

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I am hesitant now to call UKMet an outlier seems all models are picking up on west shift now, tho many still keep it offshore

[emeraldislenc]

The 5 pm advisory will be interesting

[ronjon]

12 UKMET at 84 hours just off SE Florida:

matt does a nice job of avoiding a direct hit with the mountains of eastern cuba on this run and then makes an efficient run at florida...compare that track to the current nhc track..one of them is way wrong..nhc is going ot have to start coming clean with their track starting at 5..im not suggesting they bring it onshore anywhere but they will need to start bending towards the coast someplace

Litle doubt jlaud since current track on the east side of guidance - my bet is they'll average tracks of 12z GFS and Euro days 3 - 5.

[alienstorm]

12 UKMET at 84 hours just off SE Florida:

matt does a nice job of avoiding a direct hit with the mountains of eastern cuba on this run and then makes an efficient run at florida...compare that track to the current nhc track..one of them is way wrong..nhc is going ot have to start coming clean with their track starting at 5..im not suggesting they bring it onshore anywhere but they will need to start bending towards the coast someplace

Litle doubt jlaud since current track on the east side of guidance - my bet is they'll average tracks of 12z GFS and Euro days 3 - 5.

Not with the Governor declaring a State of Emergency, I believe that there was a discussion with NHC before declaring it.

[toad strangler]

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think the NHC said the ukmet was the outlier but now the ecmwf is bending west all bets are off

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro Ensembles shifting a tad east.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/783038088352243712

[marciacubed]

12z Euro Ensembles shifting a tad east.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/783038088352243712

East? Everyone else has said west. I am confused

[HURRICANELONNY]

Doesnt matter. The trend went somewhat west which at the least would be alot of beach erosion for florida

[gatorcane]

There are a lot of ECMWF ensembles into SE Florida or along the east coast of Florida....

[ronjon]

12z Euro Ensembles shifting a tad east.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/783038088352243712

They look to me about the same as the 00z run.

[TheStormExpert]

Here they are through 150hrs.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/783040432703963140

[Evil Jeremy]

12z Euro Ensembles shifting a tad east.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/783038088352243712

They look to me about the same as the 00z run.

For reference, the 00z ensembles:
 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782873960807407616

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[SeminoleWind]

The UKMET has been persistently to the west, could it be on to something?