ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[AutoPenalti]

That has to be landfall...

[stormreader]

NAVGEM as an individual model performer is terrible - however, the fact that the ridge is stronger in observed height rises than what was placed in the GFS model argues that perhaps further westward shifts may happen in the models. UKMET has the strongest ridging now and is a more reliable model so we'll see the model trends over the next few cycles.

Would definitely argue for further shifts west. You have to look how far west things have come just in the last 36 hours or so. With the ridging, the possibility of any shifts back east seem remote. But further west shifts are much more likely.

Not sure if I can post this in the model thread but it seems due to the west shifts, the governer of FL has just declared a state of emergency.

I think it's a good call. Any further shifts in models west (and I think they are coming) will bring Mathew ashore in perhaps a worst case scenario. Models have simply been wrong about projected weaknesses in the ridge, and now I think they have underestimated its strength somewhat. But that should be corrected in the next 24 hours or so.

[gatorcane]

I won't post the NAM but it landfalls in SE Florida but seems way too weak since it really weakens it over Cuba.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Gator,

how much of eastern Cuba did it cross over? I would like to see that run where does it come in how far south.

[stormreader]

That has to be landfall...

That model forecast landfall is very close to worst case scenario, but not quite. If models shifts just slightly more west, you would have Mathew come upon Fl just a little south of the penninsula and the begin to turn NNW around the ridge making landfall very near Miami at NNW. I still believe models may eventually show the ridge to be strong enough to push Mathew into the keys and then the North turn taking it up the West Coast. But watching in anticipation for runs of main models during next 24-36 hours as they begin to finally nail down the correct path for what will most likely be an epic hurricane strike on the Fl coast.

[gatorcane]

Look how close the FIM-9 is now....

[gatorcane]

let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.

[ronjon]

Might as well be landfall at WPB on the FIM-9 - its literally 30 miles offshore.

[TheStormExpert]

Is that the 18z FIM or 12z?

[Evil Jeremy]

I won't post the NAM but it landfalls in SE Florida but seems way too weak since it really weakens it over Cuba.

For what it's worth, the 18z NAM is a nudge west of the 12z.

[ronjon]

let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.

Not sure its really going to matter GC - once hurricane watches go up with the proximity to coast - might have to prepare for the worst anyway.

[stormreader]

12 UKMET at 84 hours just off SE Florida:

That track very close to worst case scenario. Mathew shoots the gap between Haiti and Cuba basically intact. Very possible strengthening (maybe even growing in size some as it leaves the deep tropics) . A slightly further S path to Fl caused by stronger ridge and then the NNW turn around it with landfall at Miami. Not far from that possibility with the UK Model.

[jlauderdal]

let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.

amazing how consistent the aussie, uk and fim have been the last few days..some would say its just dumb luck but still they have held firm and the two heavyweights through all their flip flopping are trending towards these other models..there is stil plenty of time for a global model win...we are still a few days out

[robbielyn]

That has to be landfall...

That model forecast landfall is very close to worst case scenario, but not quite. If models shifts just slightly more west, you would have Mathew come upon Fl just a little south of the penninsula and the begin to turn NNW around the ridge making landfall very near Miami at NNW. I still believe models may eventually show the ridge to be strong enough to push Mathew into the keys and then the North turn taking it up the West Coast. But watching in anticipation for runs of main models during next 24-36 hours as they begin to finally nail down the correct path for what will most likely be an epic hurricane strike on the Fl coast.

Just so you know you are depressing me. I live on the west coast its not coming here it will stay in the Atlantic near east coast of fl. sharin' the love. We already had our hurricane thank you very much! J/k

[stormlover2013]

any landfall is a worse scenario..I've been through IKE and RITA none of this is fun........lets hope this misses the US

[TheStormExpert]

The mean of the 12z Euro Ensembles shifts east.

[ronjon]

18z NAM - into Lake O in 84 hours - very strong ridging.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100318&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=342

[sma10]

let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.

amazing how consistent the aussie, uk and fim have been the last few days..some would say its just dumb luck but still they have held firm and the two heavyweights through all their flip flopping are trending towards these other models..there is stil plenty of time for a global model win...we are still a few days out

Hail King Aussie?

Nah....

[robbielyn]

The mean of the 12z Euro Ensembles shifts east.

that makes more sense for florida. let's hope matt likes that route.

[stormreader]

let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.

amazing how consistent the aussie, uk and fim have been the last few days..some would say its just dumb luck but still they have held firm and the two heavyweights through all their flip flopping are trending towards these other models..there is stil plenty of time for a global model win...we are still a few days out

But as you know J, the wind shield wiper back and forth time is pretty much done. Basically all models have shifted west. That may even continue. Models that were west early on (simpler and more straightforward models) seem to have picked up on the basic facts of this situation more effectively. Seems funny to say, but we have to give greater credence to what the UK, Nams, and I think NASA Midels have to say.