ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

The latest NHC cone shows Karl coming about 137 miles from Bermuda. It really depends on the strength and size of Karl to determine how much Bermuda will be affected. I would say by the looks of this cone that it's quite likely that they could experience at least TS force winds. Just a personal forecast.

[JaxGator]

The latest NHC cone shows Karl coming about 137 miles from Bermuda. It really depends on the strength and size of Karl to determine how much Bermuda will be affected. I would say by the looks of this cone that it's quite likely that they could experience at least TS force winds. Just a personal forecast.

Convection is also over the center. Kaz, if that track holds true, Bermuda would be in the worst of the weather (the right-front quad).

[gatorcane]

Bermuda is tiny so to get a direct hit is more difficult than it seems. In this case it seems models are trending more to the east so that is a good trend for Bermuda.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS stronger this run out through 84 hours so far.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has very close to Bermuda, passes just to the southeast at 114 hours but very close.

[cycloneye]

Finnally,Karl looks like a real TC.

[abajan]

The latest NHC cone shows Karl coming about 137 miles from Bermuda. It really depends on the strength and size of Karl to determine how much Bermuda will be affected. I would say by the looks of this cone that it's quite likely that they could experience at least TS force winds. Just a personal forecast.

Convection is also over the center. Kaz, if that track holds true, Bermuda would be in the worst of the weather (the right-front quad).

Actually, if the current NHC projection verifies, Bermuda would be on the weaker side (left), because by that time Karl would be moving towards the ENE.

[cycloneye]

Getting better.

TXNT29 KNES 200003
TCSNTL

A. 12L (KARL)

B. 19/2345Z

C. 19.7N

D. 50.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY CIRCULAR TIGHT
CLOUD LINES, PROXIMITY NEAR OVERCAST, SIZE GREATER THAN .5 DG. .5 BANDING
ALSO YIELDS DT OF 2.5. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

19/2133Z 19.5N 49.4W SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[JaxGator]

The latest NHC cone shows Karl coming about 137 miles from Bermuda. It really depends on the strength and size of Karl to determine how much Bermuda will be affected. I would say by the looks of this cone that it's quite likely that they could experience at least TS force winds. Just a personal forecast.

Convection is also over the center. Kaz, if that track holds true, Bermuda would be in the worst of the weather (the right-front quad).

Actually, if the current NHC projection verifies, Bermuda would be on the weaker side (left), because by that time Karl would be moving towards the ENE.

Yes, you're right. Sorry. Misinterpreted the track in confusing Bermuda's location. That would be better for them.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40kts at 00z Best Track.

AL, 12, 2016092000, , BEST, 0, 195N, 499W, 40, 1005, TS

[txwatcher91]

Karl is looking much better tonight. Sustained convection finally over the center. Could be the beginning of steady strengthening.

[Kazmit]

HWRF shows landfall as a strong 101.5kt Cat 3. Here's Bermuda clearly visable in the eyewall.

[abajan]

Karl is looking much better tonight. Sustained convection finally over the center. Could be the beginning of steady strengthening.

I'm willing to wager that it'll become a major hurricane at some point. Possibly before reaching the vicinity of Bermuda.

[abajan]

HWRF shows landfall as a strong 101.5kt Cat 2. Here's Bermuda clearly visable in the eyewall.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 12L_38.png

101.5 kt actually equates to 116.9 mph (101.5 x 1.1515), which is Cat 3.

[Hammy]

Karl is far less organized than it appears, especially if you give the wind flow a good hard look. The center is still elongated east-west and entirely out from the convection. Circled area is all calm wind.



As per CIMSS, there is also an area of 30-40kt (and increasing) shear ahead of it, which has not moved west at all, that this will be running into within the next 24hours.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016

Karl is a little better organized tonight. An area of deep
convection has been persisting during the past several hours, and
microwave images indicate that the center is located near the
southwestern edge of the convective area. The initial wind speed
is nudged upward to 40 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Karl is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and it is being steered
by the flow on the south side of a high pressure system over the
subtropical Atlantic. The tropical cyclone is expected to move near
the southwestern periphery of the high in a couple of days and then
head toward a pronounced weakness in the ridge over the western
Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should result in Karl
turning northwestward in about 48 hours, with a gradual turn to the
north and northeast expected in 4 to 5 days. Although the models
agree on the overall theme, there is a fair amount of spread in the
guidance associated with where and when Karl begins to recurve. The
NHC official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance
envelope, and is in best agreement with the various consensus aids.

The vertical wind shear that has been affecting Karl for the past
several days appears to be letting up some, and the SHIPS model
suggests that shear should be generally light during the next 5
days. In addition, Karl is currently over SSTs of around 28 deg C,
and it is expected to move over even warmer waters throughout the
forecast period. The one unfavorable parameter for intensification
is the dry mid-level environment surrounding the tropical storm,
but some of the guidance suggests that the air mass could moisten
ahead of the system later this week. Based on these large scale
conditions, slow strengthening seems likely during the next day or
so, followed by a faster rate of intensification thereafter. The
NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is on
the conservative side of the guidance at the longer range forecast
points.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.7N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.4N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 21.3N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 22.4N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 23.9N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 26.7N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 29.5N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 32.3N 60.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

[cycloneye]

New peak intensity is 95kts.Very close call for Bermuda.

120H 25/0000Z 32.3N 60.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

[HurricaneBelle]

Wind speed probabilities are trending upward for Bermuda, per the latest advisory, with now a 56% chance of TS winds and a 12% chance of hurricane winds:

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 26(56)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)

Side note: people obsess over the "cone", but it's a simply a representation of historical track error and has little specifically to do with expected conditions. The real insight on what the NHC expects over a wide area comes in these wind probabilities, which are issued with every advisory yet rarely if ever I see anyone refer to them in this forum.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing of concern is that this could be a major hurricane as it passes near Bermuda

[Hammy]

BT back down to 35kt, circulation becoming less organized by the looks of it, and it's starting to decouple as the convection doesn't appear that it's made it's way any further west with the circulation. The models don't seem to be doing well with the shear forecast at the moment.