ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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MaineWeatherNut
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5401 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:40 am

Looks like 952mb is the pressure for the first pass post landfall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5402 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:40 am

center is back offshore..

lets see what happens now..

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5403 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:43 am

Is the center already starting to clear on the visible satellite?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5404 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:43 am

I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5405 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:44 am

SeGaBob wrote:I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...


What makes you think they would shift east?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5406 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:46 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...


What makes you think they would shift east?

Weaker ridging starting to show up in the models.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5407 Postby baitism » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:47 am

I don't see Matthew going over the high peaks in Cuba. I think Matthew will rebound very quickly.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5408 Postby JaxGator » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:47 am

SeGaBob wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...


What makes you think they would shift east?

Weaker ridging starting to show up in the models.


"Slightly". I would wait to see more.
Last edited by JaxGator on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5409 Postby otterlyspicey » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:47 am

SeGaBob wrote:I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...

Completely agree... I think we have seen the most west the models will go. Also thinking Matthew will be less "scary" for northern Florida through the Carolina's as far as strength goes. But still a major situation not to be taken lightly.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5410 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:48 am

Latest recon pass suggests it has weakened into a category 3 with maximum winds of around 105 knots.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5411 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:48 am

SeGaBob wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...


What makes you think they would shift east?

Weaker ridging starting to show up in the models.



Whoch models? The Gfs, Euro, Ukmet etc havent begin to run yet...


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5412 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:49 am

There has been very little to indicate "major" east shifts. I'm not saying they can't happen (I hope they do) but "gut feelings" are not scientific enough to suggest "major" shifts. This is crunch time, lets stick to the facts.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5413 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:49 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/782944635651969025


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5414 Postby Jevo » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:49 am

SeGaBob wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:I could see major east shifts coming soon...just a gut feeling. But it could come west I suppose...


What makes you think they would shift east?

Weaker ridging starting to show up in the models.


On the contrary, the ridging in the 6z GFS was about the same, only the speed was different and the latest HWRF and GFDL reinforced the ridge. The HWRF and GFDL models were the Easterly outliers in the last package and are now in the Western side of the forecast envelope.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5415 Postby WeatherHoon » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:49 am

Probably because some of the models like the NAM are east now and also because of the formation of Nicole and her possible influence on the weakening of the ridge a bit. Gotta wait for the next model runs.
Last edited by WeatherHoon on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5416 Postby Soonercane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:50 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
What makes you think they would shift east?

Weaker ridging starting to show up in the models.



Whoch models? The Gfs, Euro, Ukmet etc havent begin to run yet...


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The NAM for one, I think today the much awaited east trend arrives and emergency managers along the East Coast breathe a sigh of relief.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5417 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:51 am

WeatherHoon wrote:Probably because some of the models like the NAM are east now and also because of the formation of Nicole and her possible influence on the weakening of the ridge a bit. Gotta wait for the next model rums.


Soonercane wrote:The NAM for one, I think today the much awaited east trend arrives and emergency managers along the East Coast breathe a sigh of relief.



The NAM is not a tropical model. In fact it's one of the worst models for the tropics. Don't use it for tracking storms, just for looking at the upper air environment.
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5418 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:51 am

The NAM is not used for tropical cyclone tracks. It had this thing headed to Central America a few days ago.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5419 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:52 am

NotoSans wrote:Latest recon pass suggests it has weakened into a category 3 with maximum winds of around 105 knots.



I would say more like 110kt to 115 kt dropsondes will tell more. but still go with 130 mph

143700 1904N 07406W 6970 02824 9694 +111 +111 138100 104 106 047 00
143730 1905N 07405W 6957 02866 9722 +109 +109 137104 110 106 046 00
143800 1907N 07404W 6976 02870 9756 +108 +108 131110 113 105 036 00
143830 1908N 07403W 6950 02914 9768 +109 +109 127107 111 100 036 00
143900 1910N 07402W 6957 02927 9798 +105 +105 128110 114 102 028 00
143930 1911N 07401W 6948 02958 9819 +102 +102 128106 109 098 023 00
144000 1913N 07401W 6949 02977 9833 +102 +102 127102 105 096 014 00
144030 1914N 07400W 6970 02967 9860 +100 +100 130107 108 090 012 00
144100 1915N 07359W 6963 02987 9884 +095 +095 132108 110 085 010 00
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#5420 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:53 am

So TS Nicole is officially a thing now btw.
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