ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormHunter72]

Euro much stronger at landfall in 12z run south of Tallahassee, fyi

euro has left the building this season

[tropicwatch]

Looks like mlc just north of the tip of Yucatan becoming more discernable on vis sat.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&zoom=2&numframes=15

[whatacane]

Looks like mlc just north of the tip of Yucatan becoming more discernable on vis sat.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&zoom=2&numframes=15

If that is the case does the nhc have the right spot?

[TropicalSailor]

Impressive pop at 18:15

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[tropicwatch]

Looks like mlc just north of the tip of Yucatan becoming more discernable on vis sat.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&zoom=2&numframes=15

If that is the case does the nhc have the right spot?

I believe it is mid level circulation.

[GeneratorPower]

Something to ponder....I know the local METS have been showing larger rainfall totals on the Florida West Coast. They are seeming to ignore one thing we see all the time....the June Tropical Storm effect. If this entity never fully stacks, battles shear and then gets whipped NE...most of the convection could possible be in the Atlantic before the center makes landfall...and convection moving at a very good clip as well. If it stays weaker, also wont have as strong a helicity for tornadic development. It is always wise to never turn your back on a storm in the fishbowl...but if it continues on its current course at this present state or slightly stronger...we may be very fortunate to not see much of anything but some blustery showers...fingers crossed.

Absolutely. I think the writing is on the wall. Very little rain for FL out of this. It's looked like dry, sheared, popcorn thunderstorms at best. Expect it to continue.

[Christiana]

Thanks again to all the pro-mets for their time and insight. I am feeling so much better about our being in the clear while of course still concerned for our friends in Florida and on the big island of Hawaii. Madeline, WOW. Am learning so much from this mess of a storm and it's tenacity, will continue to watch until it is history, which I hope is sooner rather than later. Our coastal tides here along the MS Coast are easily up a couple of feet today, always happens when that big pot of hot gumbo we call the GOM is churning. Take care Floridians, be prepared!

[JaxGator]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 25s25 seconds ago
Some interesting banding w/TD 09L ... models suggest modest intensification next 24-hrs ... hopefully they're right.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrIMWDDXgAAFZ9I.jpg

[Soonercane]

Looks like mlc just north of the tip of Yucatan becoming more discernable on vis sat.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&zoom=2&numframes=15

If that is the case does the nhc have the right spot?

I believe it is mid level circulation.

Correct, this system is not stacked and the MLC is displaced to the southwest of the current LLC

[Florida1118]

Something to ponder....I know the local METS have been showing larger rainfall totals on the Florida West Coast. They are seeming to ignore one thing we see all the time....the June Tropical Storm effect. If this entity never fully stacks, battles shear and then gets whipped NE...most of the convection could possible be in the Atlantic before the center makes landfall...and convection moving at a very good clip as well. If it stays weaker, also wont have as strong a helicity for tornadic development. It is always wise to never turn your back on a storm in the fishbowl...but if it continues on its current course at this present state or slightly stronger...we may be very fortunate to not see much of anything but some blustery showers...fingers crossed.

Absolutely. I think the writing is on the wall. Very little rain for FL out of this. It's looked like dry, sheared, popcorn thunderstorms at best. Expect it to continue.

I think you are very off base with "very little rain" for Florida. The rain is not going to come from 09L directly; moisture, with PWAT's near 2.5 inches will be around for days. I think your claim is quite off base there.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 301839
NOAA3 0909A CYCLONE HDOB 17 20160830
183000 2438N 08546W 9252 00761 0087 +230 +215 180024 025 025 000 00
183030 2440N 08547W 9256 00758 0085 +231 +212 179025 025 023 000 00
183100 2442N 08548W 9253 00761 0086 +227 +218 178023 023 022 000 00
183130 2444N 08549W 9259 00757 0086 +229 +209 178023 024 022 000 03
183200 2446N 08549W 9254 00761 0086 +230 +213 176021 022 020 001 00
183230 2448N 08549W 9256 00759 0086 +231 +210 174022 023 022 000 00
183300 2450N 08549W 9257 00758 0087 +229 +211 173022 023 021 000 00
183330 2452N 08548W 9256 00759 0086 +232 +209 170025 026 019 000 00
183400 2454N 08548W 9257 00758 0086 +230 +213 170026 027 019 000 00
183430 2456N 08548W 9255 00761 0087 +229 +213 169024 024 022 000 00
183500 2458N 08548W 9256 00760 0088 +228 +216 166023 023 022 000 00
183530 2500N 08548W 9256 00760 0088 +229 +213 166022 023 020 000 00
183600 2503N 08549W 9255 00762 0089 +231 +207 164021 022 019 000 00
183630 2505N 08549W 9255 00763 0091 +227 +209 159020 020 019 000 00
183700 2507N 08549W 9256 00761 0091 +227 +204 155021 021 019 000 00
183730 2509N 08549W 9257 00762 0092 +227 +204 158020 021 018 000 00
183800 2511N 08549W 9256 00763 0092 +227 +211 159018 019 017 000 00
183830 2513N 08549W 9255 00764 0092 +228 +211 157018 019 018 000 00
183900 2515N 08549W 9257 00762 0091 +230 +210 158020 020 017 001 00
183930 2517N 08549W 9257 00761 0091 +231 +209 159020 020 017 000 00


All I can do for now.

[GCANE]

Impressive pop at 18:15

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

24N 87W
Right on the vort max and where recon is fixing the center.

Center Fix Coordinates: 24°20'N 87°06'W (24.3333N 87.1W)

[whatacane]

If that is the case does the nhc have the right spot?

I believe it is mid level circulation.

Correct, this system is not stacked and the MLC is displaced to the southwest of the current LLC

so what does this mean if mlc is futher southwest?

[Dean4Storms]

Still not stacked but the MLC is getting closer very slowly to getting stacked over the LLC, yesterday it was about 100 miles south of the LLC and looks today to be about 70 miles or so.

If it does ever get stacked and once it turns to the NE it will then be picking up forward speed which will offset the SW Wind Shear expected from the longwave trough digging, it'll be moving in tandem with the upper level shear which is why the ECM is now seeing a possible stronger storm.

My bet is that tonight this thing gets stacked or early tomorrow and then we could see some impressive deepening!

[GCANE]

Impressive pop at 18:15

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

24N 87W
Right on the vort max and where recon is fixing the center.

Center Fix Coordinates: 24°20'N 87°06'W (24.3333N 87.1W)

A few little towers were popping around it too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[robbielyn]

Something to ponder....I know the local METS have been showing larger rainfall totals on the Florida West Coast. They are seeming to ignore one thing we see all the time....the June Tropical Storm effect. If this entity never fully stacks, battles shear and then gets whipped NE...most of the convection could possible be in the Atlantic before the center makes landfall...and convection moving at a very good clip as well. If it stays weaker, also wont have as strong a helicity for tornadic development. It is always wise to never turn your back on a storm in the fishbowl...but if it continues on its current course at this present state or slightly stronger...we may be very fortunate to not see much of anything but some blustery showers...fingers crossed.

Absolutely. I think the writing is on the wall. Very little rain for FL out of this. It's looked like dry, sheared, popcorn thunderstorms at best. Expect it to continue.

Exactly! amen! I think that is par for the course same song and dance we have seen this before. That is all that ever happens here when we on the west coast of fl are actually threatened. my grass is brown. But euro is a bust on this one. one doesnt hv to be a pro met to see what is happening and per nhc it only goes downhill development wise from here with all the dry air and shear still forecast as it makes landfall. I should all be able to go to the beach friday even if it's cloudy. at least we won't have to worry about beach erosion.

[Soonercane]

Still not stacked but the MLC is getting closer very slowly to getting stacked over the LLC, yesterday it was about 100 miles south of the LLC and looks today to be about 70 miles or so.

If it does ever get stacked and once it turns to the NE it will then be picking up forward speed which will offset the SW Wind Shear expected from the longwave trough digging, it'll be moving in tandem with the upper level shear which is why the ECM is now seeing a possible stronger storm.

My bet is that tonight this thing gets stacked or early tomorrow and then we could see some impressive deepening!

Although I don't think this thing will intensify much beyond a low-mid end tropical storm (40-50 knots) given the continued structural problems it has had over its life (granted this has largely been due to the near constant presence of shear to some degree), your point about the forward motion working to lessen the impact of the shear imparted by the trough is something to think about (if this system can get over its structural problems in the next 36 hours or so).

[Stormcenter]

Is TD#9 following the NHC's track right now?

[Blow_Hard]

Something to ponder....I know the local METS have been showing larger rainfall totals on the Florida West Coast. They are seeming to ignore one thing we see all the time....the June Tropical Storm effect. If this entity never fully stacks, battles shear and then gets whipped NE...most of the convection could possible be in the Atlantic before the center makes landfall...and convection moving at a very good clip as well. If it stays weaker, also wont have as strong a helicity for tornadic development. It is always wise to never turn your back on a storm in the fishbowl...but if it continues on its current course at this present state or slightly stronger...we may be very fortunate to not see much of anything but some blustery showers...fingers crossed.

Absolutely. I think the writing is on the wall. Very little rain for FL out of this. It's looked like dry, sheared, popcorn thunderstorms at best. Expect it to continue.

I think you are very off base with "very little rain" for Florida. The rain is not going to come from 09L directly; moisture, with PWAT's near 2.5 inches will be around for days. I think your claim is quite off base there.

I agree...in my totally unprofessional opinion, I don't see how thw West Coast od FL avoids whatever TD 9 delivers. It appears as though the storm will remain asymetrical and looking at the QPF totals fo 5-7 days, those are some very impressive totals.

[Soonercane]

I believe it is mid level circulation.

Correct, this system is not stacked and the MLC is displaced to the southwest of the current LLC

so what does this mean if mlc is futher southwest?

Will make it harder to intensify in the short term, in the long term it probably won't mean much from a track standpoint as the MLC will likely either be drawn into the llc if it can develop sustained convection or will gradually dissipate.