ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

NAVGEM with landfall in West Palm Beach at 78 hours

Is that a little N of 12z Navgem??

I think so. 12z had miami dade county. 18z shows West Palm Beach it looks


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[stormreader]

One thing great about these models is they can swing all over the place... 06z this morning they were hundreds of miles off Florida coast...

But it's getting to be crunch time, and models are beginning to hone in on the actual destination of Mathew. I really don't expect any swinging back east. Expect even a tad more west.

[ronjon]

18z GFDL places MATT just offshore WPB-Vero at 8 am Friday morning with a pressure of 921 mb. Hurricane force winds along the coast from WPB to Ft Pierce.

[SouthFLTropics]

https://s15.postimg.org/u6vz76cej/IDY20000_mslp_precip_096.png

https://s17.postimg.org/c34useo73/IDY20 ... _084_1.png

Gotta love those Aussies...sniffing this out before anyone else. Their stock has moved up!!!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles showing the west shift

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

18Z GFS ensembles showing the west shift

https://s18.postimg.org/k6jpm7f3d/14_L_gefs_18z.png

GFS 18z deterministic.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like Florida very much is going to happen

[gatorcane]

GFS simulated IR hour 84

[toad strangler]

GFS simulated IR hour 84

https://s10.postimg.org/ew9yox2h5/gfs_ir_watl_15.png

The saving grace should this even verify, is that we would be on the drier and less intense side of the cane. Obviously.

[robbielyn]

Looks like Florida very much is going to happen

hey florida is a happenin' place.

[GTStorm]

18Z GFS ensembles showing the west shift

https://s18.postimg.org/k6jpm7f3d/14_L_gefs_18z.png

ugh...I imagine insurance companies are none too happy about that solution...so are there any models that have the digging trough on its way to save us all?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS simulated IR hour 84

https://s10.postimg.org/ew9yox2h5/gfs_ir_watl_15.png

The saving grace should this even verify, is that we would be on the drier and less intense side of the cane. Obviously.

Don't kid yourself the models are going to keep trending west ...somebody will get a direct hit

[stormreader]

18Z GFS ensembles showing the west shift

https://s18.postimg.org/k6jpm7f3d/14_L_gefs_18z.png

Hate to say it, but what an amazing coastal track! Of course, I still think we'll see one more tad west shift. Still thinking it will enter the keys before feeling the weakness and heading more north.

[Evil Jeremy]

Don't kid yourself the models are going to keep trending west ...somebody will get a direct hit

We don't know either of those for a fact. Is it possible the models will keep going west? Sure. Probable? Perhaps. But we don't know for certain. Same goes for a direct hit. Even if it's probable, we can't talk like we have already seen the future.

[sma10]

NAVGEM with landfall in West Palm Beach at 78 hours

Is that a little N of 12z Navgem??

I think so. 12z had miami dade county. 18z shows West Palm Beach it looks


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

Omg, and the NAVGEM develops the southerly wave heading towards the Windwards after Matthew, and has a large Tropical Storm heading into Haiti this weekend.

[sponger]

Yikes not good anyone think it will go east again.

Yep after it swings into Tampa.

[stormreader]

Don't know what to say about these top models. I guess "better late, than never!"

[HurricaneWarning92]

Don't kid yourself the models are going to keep trending west ...somebody will get a direct hit

We don't know either of those for a fact. Is it possible the models will keep going west? Sure. Probable? Perhaps. But we don't know for certain. Same goes for a direct hit. Even if it's probable, we can't talk like we have already seen the future.

This. We don't know that for sure. Models could swing back to the east for all we know.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM, landfall West Palm Beach 78 hours.

[Blown Away]

00z Guidance...