ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

Look like another west shift doesn't it?

Looks like a western shift in the short to medium term and an eastward shift in the long term. Beyond North Carolina, most of the models have shifted eastward suggesting a track further from the Northeast. Look how far east the consensus line shifted beyond 120 hours between 18Z and 00Z. I'm assuming this is due to Matthew's slower expected motion and the eastward progression of the storm that will be bringing me snow here in Colorado Wednesday night into Thursday.

Welcome to the forum!

[meriland23]

is the mb intensity level or similar to the previous runs of these models or has it significantly boosted or reduced once approaching the US?

[stormlover2013]

Models will keep trending west till wed!!! Gut feeling but the ingridents is coming together

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Models will keep trending west till wed!!! Gut feeling but the ingridents is coming together

The trend is not your friend

[boulderrr]

Look like another west shift doesn't it?

Looks like a western shift in the short to medium term and an eastward shift in the long term. Beyond North Carolina, most of the models have shifted eastward suggesting a track further from the Northeast. Look how far east the consensus line shifted beyond 120 hours between 18Z and 00Z. I'm assuming this is due to Matthew's slower expected motion and the eastward progression of the storm that will be bringing me snow here in Colorado Wednesday night into Thursday.

Welcome to the forum!

Thanks! Been here for a while lurking. Been around for many many years on all the old forums (American Wx, Eastern Wx, Wright Weather, and others I can't remember). Will try to contribute more when I have anything useful to say. (And sorry for going off-topic in here!)

Here is a comparison of the 18Z and 00Z TVCN line. Maps not quite matched in positioning, but you can clearly see the further eastward track beyond NC:

[Steve]

Looks like the low crossing Great Lakes eventually kicks out some of the lower levels and maybe part of it phases with the low in eastern Canada which is why it hooks out. Impacts are definitely back on the table for the US and potentially major. I'd been busy all weekend, so I've only been casually following. Can't say whether we get a parallel track to Florida or a landfall or whether or not South or North Carolina see a landfall rather than a brush by. There will be hundreds of millions of dollars in damage regardlessly, but with Matthew specifically having that intense inner core, it's a small radius of catastrophic potential. 30 miles offshore could be a big deal.

Meanwhile, Haiti. I hate that they always seem to get the short end of the stick. Between earthquakes, hurricanes, deforestation, AIDS, poverty, etc., they seem to be more susceptible to disaster than anyone else in our hemisphere. Prayers and wishes out mes Amis d'Haiti.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

JMA landfall.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

18z supermodel consensus almost looks like a Donna (1960) type track, minus the Florida part.

[Ken711]

Looks like the low crossing Great Lakes eventually kicks out some of the lower levels and maybe part of it phases with the low in eastern Canada which is why it hooks out. Impacts are definitely back on the table for the US and potentially major. I'd been busy all weekend, so I've only been casually following. Can't say whether we get a parallel track to Florida or a landfall or whether or not South or North Carolina see a landfall rather than a brush by. There will be hundreds of millions of dollars in damage regardlessly, but with Matthew specifically having that intense inner core, it's a small radius of catastrophic potential. 30 miles offshore could be a big deal.

Meanwhile, Haiti. I hate that they always seem to get the short end of the stick. Between earthquakes, hurricanes, deforestation, AIDS, poverty, etc., they seem to be more susceptible to disaster than anyone else in our hemisphere. Prayers and wishes out mes Amis d'Haiti.

Any thoughts on timing and other factors that might weaken the ridge?

[Steve]

Unfortunately not. I haven't been following closely enough. Looks like the 00z models shown in the sfwmd hurricane plots show slightly less of a threat from maybe DC and north of there, but I wouldn't rule out some bad effects for Virginia if Matthew landfalls in SC or NC. So maybe the next low kicks it out Saturday-ish? I will say that Megi telegraphed the threat afterall. I thought the ridge would be stronger going back over a week ago, and I brought that up probably 10 times through last weekend.

Also and sorry about off topic. But if we get a western Caribbean system from energy piling up late next week, I'd guess the threat to Florida could be higher. We will see on that.

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont wanna start anything...but the 0z NAM is coming in just a bit east from before. Mabye a sign the others will shiftca bit east too?




Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[AdamFirst]

NAM's track is more in line with the 18z GFS...for what it's worth

that's still putting the storm dangerously close to the coast

[Aric Dunn]

I dont wanna start anything...but the 0z NAM is coming in just a bit east from before. Mabye a sign the others will shiftca bit east too?




Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

dont look at track. the ridging is nearly identical. so disregard the NAM track and maintain ridging.

[Aric Dunn]

and actually the ridging is stronger in the SE bahamas than the 18z.. thats why we dont use NAM for track only synoptics.

[AutoPenalti]

and actually the ridging is stronger in the SE bahamas than the 18z.. thats why we dont use NAM for track only synoptics.

Yeah, NAM is reliable on everything BUT cyclone positioning.

[SeminoleWind]

I dont wanna start anything...but the 0z NAM is coming in just a bit east from before. Mabye a sign the others will shiftca bit east too?




Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

dont look at track. the ridging is nearly identical. so disregard the NAM track and maintain ridging.

I have always been under the Assumption that the NAM is not usually what you would look at as far as track and strength but more synoptics ??

[northjaxpro]

Matthew even closer to Florida on the 11 p.m. advisory. Another shift west.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I dont wanna start anything...but the 0z NAM is coming in just a bit east from before. Mabye a sign the others will shiftca bit east too?




Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

dont look at track. the ridging is nearly identical. so disregard the NAM track and maintain ridging.

I have always been under the Assumption that the NAM is not usually what you would look at as far as track and strength but more synoptics ??

Correct. If anything this extra ridging could possibly mean the opposite of what Seminole said and cause further west tracks.

[meriland23]

NHC predicts significant shear enough to rapidly weaken it to a cat 2 in 96 hours. How is it assumed to weaken that tremendously, when all of the models show a monster 4-5 near the coast of FL/SC, etc? And continuously?

[WPBWeather]

NHC predicts significant shear enough to rapidly weaken it to a cat 2 in 96 hours. How is it assumed to weaken that tremendously, when all of the models show a monster 4-5 near the coast of FL/SC, etc? And continuously?

Didn't see that in the discussion. Where did you see it?