ATL: MATTHEW - Models

SouthFLTropics · #5581 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:32 pm

Stronger ridging at 18 hours...thumb ridge starting to take shape.

Frank2 · #5582 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:34 pm

Looking at the graphic, weakness is evident to the north - I'm sure forecasters are also considering this tonight...

#5583 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:34 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Stronger ridging at 18 hours...thumb ridge starting to take shape.

Yep, seems to be par for the course so far. I personally don't expect much variation within the three day range at this juncture.

#5584 Postby **toad strangler** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:35 pm

Shooting the Gap @18 hours on the 00z GFS

SouthFLTropics · #5585 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:36 pm

This run is weird...At 18 hours it had stronger ridging and at 24 it was weaker.

#5586 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:36 pm

#5587 Postby **toad strangler** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:37 pm

2nd landfall on the extreme E edge of Cuba

CourierPR · #5588 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:38 pm

Eastern edge of Cuba.

#5589 Postby **toad strangler** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:38 pm

00z GFS starting a NW turn at hour 30

HurricaneFrances04 · #5590 Postby **HurricaneFrances04** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:40 pm

Looks like the feature off New England is further west this run.

#5591 Postby **toad strangler** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:41 pm

HurricaneFrances04 · #5592 Postby **HurricaneFrances04** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:41 pm

Looks NE of 18Z through 42 hours.

#5593 Postby **drezee** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:41 pm

500mb ridge is stronger

weathaguyry · #5594 Postby **weathaguyry** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:41 pm

Looks like Matthew is a bit farther NE of 18z at 36 hours, start of a trend, where the trend WILL be your friend?

#5595 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:41 pm

4 run trend

#5596 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:41 pm

Looks a bit N compared to 18z. I can see it when doing previous run on Levi website

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SouthFLTropics · #5597 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:42 pm

More north through 42 hours...Not sure what impact that will have on the Florida Coast. Might be beneficial.

#5598 Postby **toad strangler** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:42 pm

Sharp NW heading @42 on the 00z GFS

#5599 Postby **drezee** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:43 pm

The surface reflection can lie on the GFS but the 500 mb will tell no lies...the ridge is stronger...unfortunately W

#5600 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:43 pm

If it's further NE then it will probably keep him away from the coast. Here's hoping!