ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneRyan]

So Cuba is next?

[Bizzles]

Rebounded quite nicely. looks like it will only scrape the coast

its taking a very efficient track for max intensity in the bahamas and beyond

It's like it knows where it's going

[ThetaE]

So Cuba is next?

Potentially, though it may miss landfall. It depends on the wobbles. It always comes back to the wobbles.

[JtSmarts]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/783368792243974144

[jlauderdal]

Rebounded quite nicely. looks like it will only scrape the coast

its taking a very efficient track for max intensity in the bahamas and beyond

It's like it knows where it's going

Tropical systems hate land

[terstorm1012]

I suspect the tiny windfield for hurricane force winds are why this is holding together and looks barely touched by land interaction. I don't even think Cuba will take it down. Probably not until the trough and its shear will it come down---and not even that's guaranteed. Look at Wilma, Charley, or the much mentioned Hazel.

[wxmann_91]

its taking a very efficient track for max intensity in the bahamas and beyond

It's like it knows where it's going

Tropical systems hate land

Tell that to Fay back in 2008 or Ernesto in 2006.

[Arsynic]

Eye is clearing back out.

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/X6u3uVV.png[/img]

Sure looks like the eye is going to barely touch the eastern tip of cuba... which would likely mean the structure will maintain itself pretty well.

When I saw that, too, I said to myself, "it's almost like Matthew has a - instinct - towards his survival...." doing things, going where he needs to go in order NOT to be torn to shreds. Yeah, I know, "ascribing anthropomorphic tendencies to a storm is nutty, but...."

What is life but a fight for survival? These storms have a tendency towards living as long as they can like everything else on this planet. I have been in awe for about a week on this storm. The physical beauty of this storm is only outmatched by its sheer destructiveness.

[GCANE]

Gonzo en route to check out the ridge

[CrazyC83]

Data still supports Cat 4 even after land interaction with mountains? Wow, it may have been close to, if not, Cat 5 when it hit Haiti. I'd probably set the landfall intensity at 135 kt as a result.

[tigerz3030]

When are we expected to start seeing the NW turn?

[Arsynic]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/783368792243974144

So in other words, if you think you were out of the woods, the forest just doubled in size...

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/783368792243974144

So in other words, if you think you were out of the woods, the forest just doubled in size...

Technically it more than quadrupled.

[eastcoastFL]

When are we expected to start seeing the NW turn?

The Disco said tomorrow sometime it will go NNW then NW.

[ronyan]

1900, I wouldn't know how to calculate the increase in aerial coverage because the radius is generally a max radius and is not uniform around the center. I suppose you need an average radius to work with.

[SouthFLTropics]

Aric, are you looking for a kick to the NW as the left side of the core rounds the tip of Cuba? If I'm not mistaken there is some decent mountains out there that could spin the vortex NW off of the tip of Cuba.

[Evenstar]

Eye is clearing back out.

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/X6u3uVV.png[/img]

Sure looks like the eye is going to barely touch the eastern tip of cuba... which would likely mean the structure will maintain itself pretty well.

When I saw that, too, I said to myself, "it's almost like Matthew has a - instinct - towards his survival...." doing things, going where he needs to go in order NOT to be torn to shreds. Yeah, I know, "ascribing anthropomorphic tendencies to a storm is nutty, but...."

Nutty or no, I've always ascribed personalities to storms. After all, no two hurricanes are exactly alike. Granted, they share the same "genetics," but as we all know, the variables encountered during their lifespan make each one of these magnificent nightmares utterly unique.

[bob rulz]

I'm one of the few on here that does not live in a place at risk for hurricanes, so as a far outside observer (who doesn't even have any family in this area), I give my best regards and wishes to those who are in the path of this storm. I hope everyone and their families/friends are safe and that everyone takes the proper precautions! Good luck to everybody, and stay safe.

Data still supports Cat 4 even after land interaction with mountains? Wow, it may have been close to, if not, Cat 5 when it hit Haiti. I'd probably set the landfall intensity at 135 kt as a result.

I agree. Will be very interesting to see what they do with that in the re-analysis. Certainly this will be the most anticipated/interesting TCR in years anyway.

The way this storm has been able to maintain itself is incredible, it's very resilient. This storm always had a strong, vibrant circulation - it seems that the waves that have that strong circulation to begin with ramp up faster and maintain better a lot of the time.

[1900hurricane]

1900, I wouldn't know how to calculate the increase in aerial coverage because the radius is generally a max radius and is not uniform around the center. I suppose you need an average radius to work with.

An average would be better, but Matthew's wind field has been pretty consistently on the same ratio (i.e. no glaring asymmetries have developed or changed in the hurricane force wind field). The reason why the hurricane force wind field quadruples instead of doubles is because the formula for finding the area of the wind field (A = πr^2) involves squaring the radius.

[terstorm1012]

Data still supports Cat 4 even after land interaction with mountains? Wow, it may have been close to, if not, Cat 5 when it hit Haiti. I'd probably set the landfall intensity at 135 kt as a result.

I suspect this would happen in post-analysis but there's a lack of station data unfortunately.