ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Has WXMAN57 said anything as of late? Curious on his thought RE: Track and Intensity.

[Arsynic]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/783368792243974144

So in other words, if you think you were out of the woods, the forest just doubled in size...

Technically it more than quadrupled.

Yeah, I'm just counting one side of the storm since it LIKELY won't go totally inland and ride the coastland.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, are you looking for a kick to the NW as the left side of the core rounds the tip of Cuba? If I'm not mistaken there is some decent mountains out there that could spin the vortex NW off of the tip of Cuba.

Yeah thats quite possible as the everything piles up on the north coast the center could swing left as it passes by. have to wait and see

[artist]

I've not caught up, but wwnted to mention this wbout Hurricane Frances, so people are aware of what can happen regarding the ridge, according to these positions she was to skirt the shore. She didn't
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004


...HURRICANE IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING... AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FRANCES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 275/11. FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOW MUCH THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK... ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 19.3N 58.7W 105 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 19.4N 60.7W 105 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 19.9N 63.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.6N 66.2W 115 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 21.5N 68.8W 115 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.0W 115 KT 120 HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 78.5W 115 KT $$





http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/di ... .023.shtml?

[meriland23]

What are the chances the max force winds of the system will hit land somewhere on the EC?

[1900hurricane]

So in other words, if you think you were out of the woods, the forest just doubled in size...

Technically it more than quadrupled.

Yeah, I'm just counting one side of the storm since it LIKELY won't go totally inland and ride the coastland.

Half of a wind field of a storm with a radius of 2R would still have four times the area of half of a wind field of a storm with a radius of R. Then again, perhaps I am taking your analogy a bit too literally, since you stated "the forest" (which is assumed to be an area, like wind field) doubles in size, rather than "the length of the forest" (which is of a single dimension like a radius).

[xironman]

Still impressed with the size of the eye, like a doughnut or a tire....

[terstorm1012]

What are the chances the max force winds of the system will hit land somewhere on the EC?

all the probabilities are on the hurricane center site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... #wcontents

[artist]

Michael Watkins

@watkinstrack

42m

Radius of hurricane force winds with #Matthew has more than doubled from a few days ago (25 to 60 miles)

[ronyan]

Is anyone else having problems accessing wunderground?

[HurricaneFrances04]

Does anyone have a link to the rapid scan satellite?

[Kazmit]

Still impressed with the size of the eye, like a doughnut or a tire....

Funny how things changed. It kept that tiny eye for so long.

[Michele B]

So we are less than 72 hours out here in St Augustine, FL, and with the west shift yesterday what are possible expectations here for us to experience? Wind, rain, electricity blackouts?

Thanks in advance and prayers to everyone in Matthews path.

Though the storm could job slightly or easily be 50 or so miles to the west or east by the time it gets there, those subtle track changes that 50 or more miles make, might translate significantly if one remains far enough away on the western side of the storm. Of course that slight deviation toward the east, could just as easily occur toward the west. This is why the range of affect and impact you will ultimately receive up there, will be so dependant on the slightest of wiggles to the track as Matthew comes very close to you. I'd say there's a pretty good change you'll lose power. Tree limbs down, broken glass and windows a very good possibility for homes without any protection at all. The angle of wind trajectory would seem to imply that your East and North (and northwest) facing windows would probably be most at risk. Don't forget your cars too and if you are safely away from any threat of storm surge and staying at your house, perhaps better to keep cars as close to your house and on the west (or southwest side perhaps) if they cannot be garage kept. Definitely pick up yard debris, toys, trampolines, furniture, etc. That stuff might not be there when its all said and done (or might be lodged through your neighbors front window). If the storm takes the projected track, you'll likely receive the equivalent of strong tropical storm conditions to minimal hurricane conditions. Conditions ranging from moderate rain and windy, then a sudden strong squall with much stronger winds, then less windy and lighter rain, and back to another or longer squall of stronger weather. If you're in a feeder/rain band it could be fairly intense for a few hours. The entire event is a process that slowly deteriorates 12 or so hours in advance of the storm, and strongest when the eye is close. Even in passing your area, weather conditions might become far better until only suddenly hitting your with some strong squalls once more as another band of the departing hurricane happens to swing over your area. So much depends on whether one ends up 150 miles west of the eye, 40-50 miles west of the eye, or just a few miles to the west of it. A close call can be scary for 1st timers but easily survivable providing you've stocked up on all appropriate supplies. If the hurricane happens to come just a tiny bit closer though (or a direct hit), then everything i've mentioned thus far would be a walk in the park in comparison to the damage that would occur. Still, in a modern CBS concrete build home with the appropriate hurricane shutters you should be able to do just fine - just so long that you are NOT in a Storm surge flood zone. Finally, if you live in a modular home or especially a trailer home then i'd advise protecting your home as good as possible but NOT to stay during a hurricane. Remember too, roads and highways might get clogged from traffic trying to get out of the area. Don't chance last minute driving, especially when bridges might become dangerous to cross and flooding is a possibility to coastal areas as well. Definitely a threat to take very seriously.

Good advice.

I would ask about picking up yard items....at what wind speeds would you say it's important to clean the yard and put away ALL the lawn furniture and pink flamingoes? lol

If you are getting hurricane winds, of course! But what if you are only forecast to get minimal topical storm winds? How much is enough to pick up your favorite lawn chair, or cast iron burn pit, for example?

Any sage advice?

[Nimbus]

Technically it more than quadrupled.

Yeah, I'm just counting one side of the storm since it LIKELY won't go totally inland and ride the coastland.

Half of a wind field of a storm with a radius of 2R would still have four times the area of half of a wind field of a storm with a radius of R. Then again, perhaps I am taking your analogy a bit too literally, since you stated "the forest" (which is assumed to be an area, like wind field) doubles in size, rather than "the length of the forest" (which is of a single dimension like a radius).

We aren't under NASCAR restriction plate rules anymore?

[jlauderdal]

So we are less than 72 hours out here in St Augustine, FL, and with the west shift yesterday what are possible expectations here for us to experience? Wind, rain, electricity blackouts?

Thanks in advance and prayers to everyone in Matthews path.

Though the storm could job slightly or easily be 50 or so miles to the west or east by the time it gets there, those subtle track changes that 50 or more miles make, might translate significantly if one remains far enough away on the western side of the storm. Of course that slight deviation toward the east, could just as easily occur toward the west. This is why the range of affect and impact you will ultimately receive up there, will be so dependant on the slightest of wiggles to the track as Matthew comes very close to you. I'd say there's a pretty good change you'll lose power. Tree limbs down, broken glass and windows a very good possibility for homes without any protection at all. The angle of wind trajectory would seem to imply that your East and North (and northwest) facing windows would probably be most at risk. Don't forget your cars too and if you are safely away from any threat of storm surge and staying at your house, perhaps better to keep cars as close to your house and on the west (or southwest side perhaps) if they cannot be garage kept. Definitely pick up yard debris, toys, trampolines, furniture, etc. That stuff might not be there when its all said and done (or might be lodged through your neighbors front window). If the storm takes the projected track, you'll likely receive the equivalent of strong tropical storm conditions to minimal hurricane conditions. Conditions ranging from moderate rain and windy, then a sudden strong squall with much stronger winds, then less windy and lighter rain, and back to another or longer squall of stronger weather. If you're in a feeder/rain band it could be fairly intense for a few hours. The entire event is a process that slowly deteriorates 12 or so hours in advance of the storm, and strongest when the eye is close. Even in passing your area, weather conditions might become far better until only suddenly hitting your with some strong squalls once more as another band of the departing hurricane happens to swing over your area. So much depends on whether one ends up 150 miles west of the eye, 40-50 miles west of the eye, or just a few miles to the west of it. A close call can be scary for 1st timers but easily survivable providing you've stocked up on all appropriate supplies. If the hurricane happens to come just a tiny bit closer though (or a direct hit), then everything i've mentioned thus far would be a walk in the park in comparison to the damage that would occur. Still, in a modern CBS concrete build home with the appropriate hurricane shutters you should be able to do just fine - just so long that you are NOT in a Storm surge flood zone. Finally, if you live in a modular home or especially a trailer home then i'd advise protecting your home as good as possible but NOT to stay during a hurricane. Remember too, roads and highways might get clogged from traffic trying to get out of the area. Don't chance last minute driving, especially when bridges might become dangerous to cross and flooding is a possibility to coastal areas as well. Definitely a threat to take very seriously.

Good advice.

I would ask about picking up yard items....at what wind speeds would you say it's important to clean the yard and put away ALL the lawn furniture and pink flamingoes? lol

If you are getting hurricane winds, of course! But what if you are only forecast to get minimal topical storm winds? How much is enough to pick up your favorite lawn chair, or cast iron burn pit, for example?

Any sage advice?

if you are under a tropical storm warning, clean up your yard...hurricane warning clean up the yard and shutters

[GCANE]

Looking at Vis, it appears IMHO that the eye may be contracting again.

[tropicwatch]

Looking at Vis, it appears IMHO that the eye may be contracting again.

Looks like it.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF now showing Florida East Coast landfall, around Melbourne.

ECMWF joins the 12z west train that includes I think every model, save for the HWRF. NHC sure to adjust the cone west as well at 5pm. Now you have to wonder if Hurricane Watches may be needed for Miami and Broward...

[Kazmit]

Over 30 ACE units and counting. I'm thinking this will pump out well over 40-45 units.

[TheHook210]

Euro showing Melbourne, FL land fall. That's 20 mins south of me..Not good.