ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GlennOBX]

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I told some of the members of our local ham radio club about the site yesterday at our weekly lunch. I was showing them the model output from the models thread, and telling them how to find them for themselves. Hopefully, some of those folks will register.

I was just told that the Hyde County, NC Control Group is meeting this afternoon. And, AP is now reporting that SC's governor has ordered the evacuation of 1 million people, in anticipation of the storm.

And, so, it begins.

[newtotex]

eyewall on radar is becoming extremely intense.. and its looks like its going to shoot the gap.. which mean little to no weakening .. down stream well just means it will stay strong..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Why does it look like the more intense side of the eyewall is on the west?

[Aric Dunn]

can you imagine the storm surge in hati right now inside that gulf area .. all the wind is pilling up the water there..

[baitism]

Why does it look like the more intense side of the eyewall is on the west?

Radar never samples the opposite side of the eyewall well.

[WHYB630]

meanwhile in DR

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall on radar is becoming extremely intense.. and its looks like its going to shoot the gap.. which mean little to no weakening .. down stream well just means it will stay strong..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Why does it look like the more intense side of the eyewall is on the west?

Could be that it is.. or more likely the radar is to far from there so you lose resolution. either way its quite intense.

[newtotex]

Whoa - very rarely see air like this over the water.
Huge 5000 CAPE Ridge east of KSC.
If a thunderstorm ran into something like that it would explode.
Need to watch if that moves south toward Matthew.

I'm more familiar with the impact of CAPE on thunderstorms/tornadoes. A CAPE of 5000 would just be insane for a thunderstorm. How does CAPE impact hurricanes?

[HurricaneFrances04]

More Gonzo Drops at 500mb, Heights:

At 28.1N 75.1W
Measured: 5870m
GFS: 5869m
NAM: 5855m
RAP: 5868m

At 29.9N 75.1W:
Measured: 5870m
GFS: 5868m
NAM: 5853m
RAP: 5867m

Looks like NAM underestimated the ridge? GFS looks on target.

[GCANE]

Just looking through some of the atmospheric thermodynamic parameters; e.g. CAPE, Lifted Index, Lapse Rates, etc; the Bahamas actually look more conducive for TC intensification than the GOM.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JMGarciaRivera/status/783392739031384064

[GCANE]

More Gonzo Drops at 500mb, Heights:

At 28.1N 75.1W
Measured: 5870m
GFS: 5869m
NAM: 5855m
RAP: 5868m

At 29.9N 75.1W:
Measured: 5870m
GFS: 5868m
NAM: 5853m
RAP: 5867m

Looks like NAM underestimated the ridge? GFS looks on target.

NAM is one of the east outliers.
So, most of the east tracking models likley to shift west.

[newtotex]

eyewall on radar is becoming extremely intense.. and its looks like its going to shoot the gap.. which mean little to no weakening .. down stream well just means it will stay strong..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Why does it look like the more intense side of the eyewall is on the west?

Could be that it is.. or more likely the radar is to far from there so you lose resolution. either way its quite intense.

Makes sense. I also just realized that Haiti might not have as good of radar capabilities(?) And the Cuban radar is not able to see over the western cloud tops

[Aric Dunn]

latest few frames.. full solid Eyewall and looks to be intensifying.. IR still looks ragged but that should change soon. Wish recon was there.

[GCANE]

Whoa - very rarely see air like this over the water.
Huge 5000 CAPE Ridge east of KSC.
If a thunderstorm ran into something like that it would explode.
Need to watch if that moves south toward Matthew.

I'm more familiar with the impact of CAPE on thunderstorms/tornadoes. A CAPE of 5000 would just be insane for a thunderstorm. How does CAPE impact hurricanes?

Pretty much the same way.

[Soonercane]

Why does it look like the more intense side of the eyewall is on the west?

Could be that it is.. or more likely the radar is to far from there so you lose resolution. either way its quite intense.

Makes sense. I also just realized that Haiti might not have as good of radar capabilities(?) And the Cuban radar is not able to see over the western cloud tops

I think Aric is right about the overshooting (tropical cyclones tend to be dominated by warm rain processes so they typically have much stronger returns below the freezing level), I believe this radar is actually L band (longer wavelength than S band) so attenuation by liquid drops should not be an issue.

[ncbird]

I have a wedding to attend in the outer banks on Oct 15 - next weekend. They have already started evacuations on the barrier islands. For those who are more familiar with the evacuation protocols, how soon would they let people back on the islands? If the GFS is correct, the storm would be safely OTS later Sunday-Monday (Oct 9-10). If the Euro is correct, the storm would be spinning itself down for days off the SE coast near Florida. Just trying to figure out when they decide to give the all-clear to let people back on the barrier islands in both scenarios.

Also, on a related note, the bride and groom are quite determined to be at their beach house that they rented for the week of Oct 9-16. Does the national guard have the authority to force people off the island? Can they arrest anyone who refuses to comply?

If an evacuation is called, the bride and groom won't be getting to their rented beach house on the 9th unless they already live on the island. Yes, Non residents can be forced off the island if the officials decide to push it. After the hurricane, it will depend how much damage is done as to when others are let back on. Residents are usually allowed back on first to inspect damages and secure their property.

[xironman]

latest few frames.. full solid Eyewall and looks to be intensifying.. IR still looks ragged but that should change soon. Wish recon was there.

The eye is taking up a 1/3rd of the Windward Passage

[Weatherboy1]

that ridge looks stout on the euro...gfs and ukie met have been leaning that way...tropical storm warning upper keys to deerfield are in order or hurricane watch, hurricane warning deerfield to st augustine..someone is getting an eyewall of a major on the east coast of florida

It's hard to believe we may get an eyewall hit here given what the modelling was showing 36-48 hours ago. It's been a long time since I've seen anything close to this (Wilma in 2005, Jeanne in 2004 - direct hits for me in northern Palm Beach County) and Matthew could be even stronger.

[TheStormExpert]

Matthew Threats and Impacts Graphics via the NWS: Miami. (LIKELY TO CHANGE)

[SunnyThoughts]

Its not gonna take but a very few hours for him to be out of the passage and into the bahamas region for sure.