ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5721 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:08 am

HWRF still well offshore of Florida at 60 hours...Keeps it just east of Grand Bahama Island.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5722 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:09 am

Anybody got the NAVGEM. It seems to be hung up on TT.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5723 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:12 am

Well, in looking for any crumbs of "good news", I think the 0Z run of the NAM might have been slightly east of last night's 0Z run. Anyhow, am trying to hold out for the EURO. If it keeps Matthew very close to the Florida coastline, to them I'd say we've got some pretty good consistency at a point where model consistency needs to be relied upon and at about 72 hr.s from a close threat
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5724 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:18 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Anybody got the NAVGEM. It seems to be hung up on TT.


00Z NAVGEM with landfall in Palm Beach County
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5725 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:19 am

00z NAVGEM (coming in bits and pieces on Tropical Tidbits)

I assume this enters somewhere near Palm Beach - the run is incomplete and jumps from 60hr offshore to 78hr inland

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5726 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:25 am

So far we have Ukmet and Navgem showing South Florida landfalls. Gfs is super close. Waiting in Gfdl and Euro now


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5727 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:30 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:So far we have Ukmet and Navgem showing South Florida landfalls. Gfs is super close. Waiting in Gfdl and Euro now


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Can add Hwrf too....well on the next panel, or two anyway, unless it jets East at the last second. Sorry, not Sfla...but SC
Last edited by SunnyThoughts on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5728 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:30 am

Navgem has two models the reg and the tropical hurricane model, whats is that one above?. The tropical is still at Global Tropics 10.03.2016 18:00z
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5729 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:30 am

I'm expecting a similar landfall on the Euro but slower.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5730 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:32 am

Ridge on 120 hour 12z Euro is almost identical to 108 hour on 00z GFS
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5731 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:33 am

GEFS ensembles are clustered all over the Gulf Stream between Grand Bahama and Jupiter.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5732 Postby Blinhart » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:36 am

do we know how many of the dropsondes from the G-IV are ingested into all of these models?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5733 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:36 am

Gfdl looks further west. Insanely strong too.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5734 Postby meriland23 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:39 am

What time does Euro come out tonight (in CT time) ? Also, I am wondering how this western trend is even more pronounced despite the disturbance behind Matt that is getting only stronger? Can anyone explain
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5735 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:39 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Gfdl looks further west. Insanely strong too.


GFDL is left of the 18z by a hair. Slower than other models as well...doesn't get to 27N till Friday at 12z.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5736 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:39 am

meriland23 wrote:What time does Euro come out tonight (in CT time) ? Also, I am wondering how this western trend is even more pronounced despite the disturbance behind Matt that is getting only stronger? Can anyone explain


It will start running in about 5 minutes (12:45 am CDT).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5737 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:40 am

00z GFDL

beast

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5738 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:44 am

Thats a Cat 5 less than 50 miles due east of Boca Raton. Pure madness.....


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5739 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:44 am

00z Initialized.
Image
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5740 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:45 am

00z Euro starting now.
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