ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Gonzo at 28.0N 77.5W

Measured at 500mb: 5860m
400mb: 7580m

GFS at 500mb: 5860m
at 400m: 7572m

A stronger Matthew could track farther west than what GFS's last run showed.

[BobHarlem]

Long term GITMO radar: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?231

[Dave C]

meanwhile in DR

Imagine the things floating around their feet as they sit soaking there.

[GlennOBX]

I have a wedding to attend in the outer banks on Oct 15 - next weekend. They have already started evacuations on the barrier islands. For those who are more familiar with the evacuation protocols, how soon would they let people back on the islands? If the GFS is correct, the storm would be safely OTS later Sunday-Monday (Oct 9-10). If the Euro is correct, the storm would be spinning itself down for days off the SE coast near Florida. Just trying to figure out when they decide to give the all-clear to let people back on the barrier islands in both scenarios.

Also, on a related note, the bride and groom are quite determined to be at their beach house that they rented for the week of Oct 9-16. Does the national guard have the authority to force people off the island? Can they arrest anyone who refuses to comply?

If an evacuation is called, the bride and groom won't be getting to their rented beach house on the 9th unless they already live on the island. Yes, Non residents can be forced off the island if the officials decide to push it. After the hurricane, it will depend how much damage is done as to when others are let back on. Residents are usually allowed back on first to inspect damages and secure their property.

Also, no evacuations for any part of the Outer Banks, from Ocracoke north, have been ordered. The Hyde County Control Group, the entity that makes those decisions for that county, which includes Ocracoke Island, is meeting today at 5pm. Any decision they make will be announced around that time.

[tropicwatch]

meanwhile in DR

Imagine the things floating around their feet as they sit soaking there.

Floating? What about slithering?

[Evil Jeremy]

Going by today's models and the expected cone shift west in an hour, do you guys think NHC will extend the H-Watch through Broward/Miami-Dade?

[Elsiecoro]

Ive been trying to do my preps all day, and staying away from board. Kinda glad I did when I see gcane posting words like stronger and more west

was hoping weaker, definitely ots

[jlauderdal]

that ridge looks stout on the euro...gfs and ukie met have been leaning that way...tropical storm warning upper keys to deerfield are in order or hurricane watch, hurricane warning deerfield to st augustine..someone is getting an eyewall of a major on the east coast of florida

It's hard to believe we may get an eyewall hit here given what the modelling was showing 36-48 hours ago. It's been a long time since I've seen anything close to this (Wilma in 2005, Jeanne in 2004 - direct hits for me in northern Palm Beach County) and Matthew could be even stronger.

240 mile track error at day 5, nhc for days posts the track error in their write ups, they are very upfront about their limitations with track and intensity...i have said for years on the board you want to be on that line at day 4 and 5, simple statistics dictates that thinking...inside of 3 days you dont...well at day 5 this thing was sitting east of us around 240 miles(4 degrees) and now it appears to be coming onshore on the east coast...still looks north oif palm beach but south is definitely in the cards after that euro run...everyone from st augustine south to the upper keys needs to be ready....lines at the gas station are on the street now

JohnMoralesNBC61 min
I think NHC will shift their forecast track west. But they don't like to make big adjustments. So only expect a sli… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/783398544896036864

[tgenius]

Going by today's models and the expected cone shift west in an hour, do you guys think NHC will extend the H-Watch through Broward/Miami-Dade?

You know, I've been thinking about that, with regards to most businesses, they activate alot of their Disaster plans when it's a Hurricane vs Tropical Storm Watch.

[seahawkjd]

So what are the thoughts on the Euro? Is it valid or suspect?

[T'Bonz]

That's the strangest Euro run I've seen in years. Up to SC then makes a loop-de-loop and return to FL. The heck?!

The 5 o'clock discussion should be interesting.

[TheStormExpert]

That Euro run reminds me of what Hurricane Ivan did in 2004.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/783393472497655813

[jlauderdal]

Ive been trying to do my preps all day, and staying away from board. Kinda glad I did when I see gcane posting words like stronger and more west

was hoping weaker, definitely ots

glad to hear you are prepping...your area is in the bullseye right now

[Weatherboy1]

that ridge looks stout on the euro...gfs and ukie met have been leaning that way...tropical storm warning upper keys to deerfield are in order or hurricane watch, hurricane warning deerfield to st augustine..someone is getting an eyewall of a major on the east coast of florida

It's hard to believe we may get an eyewall hit here given what the modelling was showing 36-48 hours ago. It's been a long time since I've seen anything close to this (Wilma in 2005, Jeanne in 2004 - direct hits for me in northern Palm Beach County) and Matthew could be even stronger.

240 mile track error at day 5, nhc for days posts the track error in their write ups, they are very upfront about their limitations with track and intensity...i have said for years on the board you want to be on that line at day 4 and 5, simple statistics dictates that thinking...inside of 3 days you dont...well at day 5 this thing was sitting east of us around 240 miles(4 degrees) and now it appears to be coming onshore on the east coast...still looks north oif palm beach but south is definitely in the cards after that euro run...everyone from st augustine south to the upper keys needs to be ready....lines at the gas station are on the street now

JohnMoralesNBC61 min
I think NHC will shift their forecast track west. But they don't like to make big adjustments. So only expect a sli… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/783398544896036864

Trust me, I don't have any criticisms of the NHC here. The modeling has been a bear, and frankly, with an angle of approach like we're seeing, it's very tough to say whether and where you will get a landfall. As others have mentioned, it's just like what happened with Charley in 2004 - a very minor change in the angle of approach shifted the landfall point by a large distance. I would expect the NHC to shift their path quite a bit given the Euro, UKMET, NAVGEM, GFDL, etc. that have all either shifted west or zeroed in on a landfall or very close pass offshore. Something 50-60 miles offshore of Palm Beach County wouldn't surprise me, frankly.

[GCANE]

The last Euro has to be about the most insane forcast I have seen.

Takes out KSC, Savannah, and the southern burbs of Charleston.
Goes back into the Bahamas.
Then another run across Florida into the GOM.

[miamijaaz]

Going by today's models and the expected cone shift west in an hour, do you guys think NHC will extend the H-Watch through Broward/Miami-Dade?

You know, I've been thinking about that, with regards to most businesses, they activate alot of their Disaster plans when it's a Hurricane vs Tropical Storm Watch.

This. The economic impact of a Tropical Storm Watch vs. a Hurricane Watch is pretty big when it comes to highly populated counties like Miami-Dade and Broward. I think the NHC is going to be very careful here. They may just wait until 11:00 pm to see the next set of model runs before changing anything.

Or maybe they just upgrade Broward county to a Hurricane Watch, for the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

unless it wobbles back due north.. its going to just barely miss the tip of cuba

[JPmia]

Going by today's models and the expected cone shift west in an hour, do you guys think NHC will extend the H-Watch through Broward/Miami-Dade?

I gotta imagine they will eventually. It may not be at 5pm, but that EURO run should justify it. It is a Cat 4 at a close approach with one of the two most reliable models trending west and south along the coast.

[JPmia]

Aric there has to be some fluid dynamics going on with this little skirt around the tip of Cuba right? I imagine once it gets past the tip it will show that NW motion? Sort of like going around a corner of a building and the wind picks up and pushes you in that direction? This always fascinates me about these intense storms and the interaction with land.