ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WPBWeather]

PB County Schools closed Thurs and Fri now.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric there has to be some fluid dynamics going on with this little skirt around the tip of Cuba right? I imagine once it gets past the tip it will show that NW motion? Sort of like going around a corner of a building and the wind picks up and pushes you in that direction? This always fascinates me about these intense storms and the interaction with land.

you can think of the west side of the circ with the north wind pilling up on the north facing side of the mountains as someone doing a pull up. THen once north of the island the Tether ball type motion should send it on a nw motion.

[xironman]

Looking at "Gonzo's" reading this guy is not going to find any shear north of the islands.

[DESTRUCTION5]

PB County Schools closed Thurs and Fri now.

As are Martin and SLC.

[ronjon]

So what are the thoughts on the Euro? Is it valid or suspect?

its a good model out 2-4 days..beyond..lots of error. Wouldn't get hung up on the loop for now - will likely change - must focus now on FL landfall and path.

[Aric Dunn]

recon about to take off.

[M_0331]

This is probably already out on S2K. SC Gov stated 3 pm tomorrow evacations start. Everyone within 100 miles of coast. Not clear about her 100 mile guideline, seems a bit extreme. I been thru my share of Canes for ~20 years in Wilmington, NC. I am around 30 miles inland between Georgetown-Charlestown. We already many, many people buying gas, supplies & getting ready to Di Di (run). Her words have went thru people like a bullet.
I am asking of other SC S2K members to help/advise/warn to the generally panicked, confused people around them thru whatever means they can. The SC 1.1 million person evac is causing a lot of confusion.
So if this post is in wrong thread, move it.
Thanks

[gatorcane]

Wide-Atlantic view....is it August or September out there? Look at the mass behind Matthew which is supposed to basically head west through the Caribbean.

[SeGaBob]

State of emergency in this part of GA...still not convinced though.

[WPBWeather]

State of emergency in this part of GA...still not convinced though.

Maybe a recurve east of Bermuda?

[galaxy401]

This is going to be an insane week for those living in the Southeast. Hope you're all prepared. I've been seeing models starting to show a loop for this storm. Thank goodness that it's October though the Atlantic doesn't seem to care about that right now.

[bqknight]

Going to be interesting to see how it reacts when it gets near the Bahamas. Will it grow? Get stronger?

[NDG]

So what are the thoughts on the Euro? Is it valid or suspect?

I am leaning towards a valid run, it does very good in the short term when ridging is stronger than what other models see.

[artist]

Hope you will prepare anyway. Water and gas are hard to come by down here already.

State of emergency in this part of GA...still not convinced though.

[SeGaBob]

State of emergency in this part of GA...still not convinced though.

Maybe a recurve east of Bermuda?

It would've been a better scenario at least.

[xironman]

Matt, showing how shooting the Windward Passage is done.

[johngaltfla]

This is probably already out on S2K. SC Gov stated 3 pm tomorrow evacations start. Everyone within 100 miles of coast. Not clear about her 100 mile guideline, seems a bit extreme. I been thru my share of Canes by leaving in Wilmington, NC. I am 30 miles inland between Georgetown-Charlestown & my Corvette don't get far on a tank of gas. We already many, many people buying gas, supplies & getting ready to Di Di (run). Her words have went thru people like a bullet.
I went thru a 140 mph typhoon on a 4000' mountain in Vietman(MARINE) connected to a tree by a strong rope & was flying or floating for 10 hours & getting the heck beat out of me.
I am asking of other SC S2K members to help/advise/warn to the generally panicked, confused people around them thru whatever means they can. The SC 1.1 million person evac is causing a lot of confusion.
So if this post is in wrong thread, move it.
Thanks

Right thread, great post. Too many people, even here, have the "I've ridden out bigger ones" attitude. No one can peg the intensity this far out and by the time one might think they can leave it could be too late. And please, don't forget your pets people!

[gatorcane]

Kindaof looks like it is slowing down a little bit, like the EURO shows in the 12Z run:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Soonercane]

Anyone know why they are keeping this at 125 knots? It hasn't been that strong in at least 12 hours.

[psyclone]

State of emergency in this part of GA...still not convinced though.

A state of emergency seems to be widely misinterpreted. It doesn't mean a catastrophe is imminent. it is the state activating those responsible for responding in the event something bad happens...think of it as precautionary "get ready" mode. seems to be prudent for the Carolinas southward to FL at this point. I'm pretty sure even Colin triggered a state of emergency in Florida back in June and we know what a paltry excuse of a system that was..