ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jhpigott]

PB County Schools closed Thurs and Fri now.

So are the PBC courthouses. Management for our office building even posted a notice saying our building was going to be closed Thursday and Friday. Around 3:00 today our phones went crazy with people cancelling appointments. Ugh . . .

[ronjon]

Bryan Norcross
1 hr ·
Matthew - Models Show Major Central Florida Threat
This is a quick update at 3:15 PM ET.
The afternoon runs of the most important computer models are showing a track for Matthew very close to or over the east coast of Florida. The image is the Euro for overnight Thursday night . A Category 3 or 4 hurricane is moving into East-Central Florida. There will likely be a shift in the National Hurricane Center cone and 5:00 PM ET. And Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued tonight. This is the real thing, folks. It requires everybody's full attention.
Evacuations and very difficult decisions will be required if the NHC and emergency managers accept this track as a reasonable possibility. Farther north the Euro is VERY different with Matthew interaction with new Tropical Storm Nicole. Stand by for more on that.

[SeGaBob]

State of emergency in this part of GA...still not convinced though.

A state of emergency seems to be widely misinterpreted. It doesn't mean a catastrophe is imminent. it is the state activating those responsible for responding in the event something bad happens...think of it as precautionary "get ready" mode. seems to be prudent for the Carolinas southward to FL at this point. I'm pretty sure even Colin triggered a state of emergency in Florida back in June and we know what a paltry excuse of a system that was..

Good point

[xironman]

Anyone know why they are keeping this at 125 knots? It hasn't been that strong in at least 12 hours.

The last VDM

"Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph)"

And it was probably weaker then

[gatorcane]

The 12Z Euro seems to lie along the eastern side of the NHC track up until Florida. I would think a west shift in the track up until Florida is coming in the 5pmEST advisory.

[Steve]

State of emergency in this part of GA...still not convinced though.

I found a place in Virginia just outside Richmond that goes by Bermuda. So yes, it looks like your earlier predictions of a recurve east of Bermuda might come true. It's fairly close to the water though, so maybe not.

[Fountainguy97]

Possibly off topic but was the 12z euro run a good run? A few mentioning that it is a bad run and the model crashed and had to be rebooted?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The 12Z Euro seems to lie along the eastern side of the NHC track up until Florida. I would think a west shift in the track up until Florida is coming in the 5pmEST advisory.

It will be a blend of the Euro and GFS which will put it he center maybe 30 miles off the Florida coast

[gatorcane]

The 12Z Euro seems to lie along the eastern side of the NHC track up until Florida. I would think a west shift in the track up until Florida is coming in the 5pmEST advisory.

It will be a blend of the Euro and GFS which will put it he center maybe 30 miles off the Florida coast

Whoops I meant the Euro is on the WESTERN side of the NHC track. For example, looks like Euro hits Andros but that is on the very left side of the NHC track as of 11AM EST.

[Evil Jeremy]

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO GOLDEN BEACH...
FLORIDA.

[caneseddy]

Hurricane watch extended south to Golden Beach (Miami-Dade/Broward line) and TS watch from Golden Beach to Seven Mile Bridge

[Evil Jeremy]

Cone shifts .6 degrees west in it's closest point to Florida in 3 days.

[miamijaaz]

Thought so. Makes sense.

[tgenius]

Wouldn't be surprised if the models keep trending west further south in Dade will be in hurricane watch too.

[EquusStorm]

Eye still impressive on Guantanamo Bay radar...

[ozonepete]

Awesome radar. Eyewall going right over the eastern tip of Cuba. Wow.

[Evil Jeremy]

From the Discussion:

"The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left"

"When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify."

[thundercam96]

Hurricane Watch extended southward to Golden Beach, FL

[Sanibel]

Just spoke to a relative 2 miles from the shore in Charleston. They are under mandatory evacuation.

[artist]

Hurricane watch extended to Golden Beach, south of Fort Lauderdale.