ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5781 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:16 am

Image

Skirting coast.. Looking similar to GFS in terms of landfall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5782 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:16 am

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EC@84hrs
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5783 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:16 am

Wow, what a move up the coast from 72 to 96.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5784 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:16 am

Aric Dunn wrote:no avoiding florida on this one.. landfall likely


I am with you on agreement Aric. I regretfully truly feel that the ridging EURO is showing now three days out is definitely strong enough to have the tropical cyclone make landfall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5785 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:16 am

Aric Dunn wrote:no avoiding florida on this one.. landfall likely

Nope.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5786 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:17 am

Looks like it might be a tad closer to here...thoughts?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5787 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:18 am

00z Euro forecast 0-96hrs:

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5788 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:18 am

Euro and GFS agree on their runs...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5789 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:19 am

look how it expands in size on that loop above.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5790 Postby SouthernBreeze » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:19 am

pressure dropping as goes up coast, showing lower pressure than GFS too if I remember
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5791 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:20 am

00z GFS at 96 hours.
Image

00z Euro at 96 hours.
[img][/http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100400/ecmwf_z500aNorm_watl_5.pngimg]
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5792 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:20 am

00z GFS at 96 hours.
Image

00z Euro at 96 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5793 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:21 am

At least we are seeing good consistency now between the GFS and Euro through 72 hr in timing.
NHC might edge their track a little closer to the GFS model now that the Euro went a little to the left on this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5794 Postby ronyan » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:21 am

Very close to landfall in NC this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5795 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:22 am

Judging by the weakening at hour 120, it appears as though it made landfall in SC?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5796 Postby WHYB630 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:23 am

00z Euro t@120: trough looks a lot different than 00z GFS at the same frame (GFS: negative; EC: positive)
Expecting OTS next frame
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5797 Postby TimeZone » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:23 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Judging by the weakening at hour 120, it appears as though it made landfall in SC?


I was thinking the same thing. That is a massive amount of weakening in a short period of time.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5798 Postby ronyan » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:24 am

WHYB630 wrote:00z Euro t@120: trough looks a lot different than 00z GFS at the same frame (GFS: negative; EC: positive)
Expecting OTS next frame


It's pretty much academic at this point to say OTS when it's that close to the coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5799 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:25 am

946MB @78hrs EC
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5800 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:26 am

Through 120h I'm impressed on how well the GFS and Euro agree on its track, by only a few miles and a few hours apart, much easier for the forecasters this morning.
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