ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

frankly shocked the NHC didn't shift the track further west.

[Happy Pelican]

I know all eyes are on Florida but do you think the threat to NY/Jersey Shore is somewhat off the table?

[yzerfan]

State of emergency in this part of GA...still not convinced though.

A state of emergency seems to be widely misinterpreted. It doesn't mean a catastrophe is imminent. it is the state activating those responsible for responding in the event something bad happens...think of it as precautionary "get ready" mode. seems to be prudent for the Carolinas southward to FL at this point. I'm pretty sure even Colin triggered a state of emergency in Florida back in June and we know what a paltry excuse of a system that was..

In Florida, a lot of legal stuff ties into a state of emergency declaration- the anti-price gouging laws are activated, lots of rules are waived in state and local government that allow the entities to move quicker and spend money as needed without having to go up the chain of command all the way to Tallahassee, etc. There are years when the state spends 2-3 months under a state of emergency over wildfire concerns even when what's actually burning at any given time is of limited acreage.

[jlauderdal]

Just spoke to a relative 2 miles from the shore in Charleston. They are under mandatory evacuation.

that seems way pre mature

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone know why they are keeping this at 125 knots? It hasn't been that strong in at least 12 hours.

The last VDM

"Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph)"

And it was probably weaker then

no multiple dropsondes measured 127kts to 129kts after it crossed hati.

[KWT]

Looking at the radar Haiti did very little to the core of Matthew. Once clear of land I can only imagine its going to get a fair bit stronger again based on the great upper pattern aloft.

Could be our first major landfall in a long time...im betting the effects wont be much different even if it does just stay offshore.

Think given the days trend, a Florida landfall looking very probable now.

[jlauderdal]

frankly shocked the NHC didn't shift the track further west.

at what time period you talking..they pushed it west at day 2...they even said so in the disco

[jlauderdal]

Eye still impressive on Guantanamo Bay radar...

that is a chasers dream right there..doesnt get much better than that

[ObsessedMiami]

frankly shocked the NHC didn't shift the track further west.

Tropical Storm wind probabilities have risen for Metro Miami to 50-60%

[stormreader]

The 12Z Euro seems to lie along the eastern side of the NHC track up until Florida. I would think a west shift in the track up until Florida is coming in the 5pmEST advisory.

And even with that I'm not totally sold that this is the last of the west shifts. I would watch during the next 24 hours for further west shift for landfall in extreme S Fl. Miami down to keys seems most likely. Keys seems a stretch, but I called for landfall there consistently beginning about a week ago, I guess.

[ronjon]

frankly shocked the NHC didn't shift the track further west.

at what time period you talking..they pushed it west at day 2...they even said so in the disco

I would have averaged the track between the GFS and ECM.

[psyclone]

frankly shocked the NHC didn't shift the track further west.

they've got time to make their baby steps as needed. Look at those wind probs now...Orlando with a 70% chance of ts winds IIRC....As it stands now central Florida east of US 27 is going to see some decent wind from this...and the coast looks like hammer time. Look at Palm Beach's odds.... Time to channel understandable anxiety into constructive preps..

[stephen23]

Seems when speeding up radar loop that there has been some good northwest jogs every now and then over past few hours. Is it already starting to make it's turn a little bit? That would verify what some were questioning with the Euro

[SeGaBob]

Looks like it shifted east up here.

[xironman]

w

Anyone know why they are keeping this at 125 knots? It hasn't been that strong in at least 12 hours.

The last VDM

"Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph)"

And it was probably weaker then

no multiple dropsondes measured 127kts to 129kts after it crossed hati.

Well, #1 is that I was backing it up that 125 knots was ok because who knows if the recon flight hit the highest wind spots. #2. You don't use dropsondes for sustained wind speeds since they only capture momentary winds, AFM corrected me on that one.

[miamijaaz]

frankly shocked the NHC didn't shift the track further west.

I suspect they want to see the next set of model runs and if the west trend continues, they can always extend the watch southward at 11:00 pm.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just spoke to a relative 2 miles from the shore in Charleston. They are under mandatory evacuation.

that seems way pre mature

I don't know if I would say its premature or not, all these decisions by emergency management have to be made asap. There are potentially 4 states that will be impacted (not even considering the NE should that happen) that can't wait until they know EXACTLY where its going to come ashore, if it does at all, to start evacuating people. Fla, Ga, Sc and NC...the coastal areas, could alL be raked by hurricane force winds or tropical storm force winds, or possibly nothing at all. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.

[Aric Dunn]

w

The last VDM

"Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph)"

And it was probably weaker then

no multiple dropsondes measured 127kts to 129kts after it crossed hati.

Well, #1 is that I was backing it up that 125 knots was ok because who knows if the recon flight hit the highest wind spots. #2. You don't use dropsondes for sustained wind speeds since they only capture momentary winds, AFM corrected me on that one.

They have been using dropsonde data for advisories this entire system as well as many others.

the upgrade to Cat 5 was due to multiple dropsondes.

[DelrayMorris]

I know all eyes are on Florida but do you think the threat to NY/Jersey Shore is somewhat off the table?

I think that it's too soon to tell, right now. Everyone on the Eastern seaboard should be monitoring this storm... maybe don't go out and buy 17 lbs of batteries that you'll never use, but general rule is that you can only discount a storm when it starts moving away from you... though Jeanne taught us that this isn't always the right way of going about it, either.

[ronjon]

frankly shocked the NHC didn't shift the track further west.

they've got time to make their baby steps as needed. Look at those wind probs now...Orlando with a 70% chance of ts winds IIRC....As it stands now central Florida east of US 27 is going to see some decent wind from this...and the coast looks like hammer time. Look at Palm Beach's odds.... Time to channel understandable anxiety into constructive preps..

i understand their baby step approach - from the discussion it sounds like they want at least one more round of model runs to track it for a landfall. Now if tonight's GFS makes landfall..well....