ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[caneman]

Hard to take comfort in a 10 mile shift, especially when euro shifted west. The 72 forecast to hit Jamaica was off by 100 miles or so.

[USTropics]

Not much difference from the 06z GFS ensembles compared to the 00z at 72 hours, slightly more runs offshore:
06z


00z

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

aussie model anyone?

[SFLcane]

Hmmm models did shift north overnight in terms of south Florida it's gonna be a tough call but Iam 50/50 if we get into hurricane conditions. Not my call BUT if it was I'd hoist hurricane watches risk just to great with powerful hurricane nearing southern Florida.

I think those probabilities are a bit aggressive. NHC says 13% chance in Miami, 17% in Fort Lauderdale, and 21% in West Palm Beach. It was encouraging to see the 06Z GFS no longer trend westward. Perhaps we have reached some sort of model convergence. Regardless, residents in FL should remain vigilant.

Before its all said and done just rainy blustery here in dade and broward. Maybe if wind field expands but as off right now nothing more then what we deal with mon-sun with gusty winds with severe wx. There is still plenty of time for south Florida to be out of the cone.

[HURRICANELONNY]

And there is still plenty of time to get a direct hit. Going to get more propane this morning. Already got the water. Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 14L_13.png

06z GFDL puts Cane force winds onshore eastcoast FL.

[Blown Away]

Hmmm models did shift north overnight in terms of south Florida it's gonna be a tough call but Iam 50/50 if we get into hurricane conditions. Not my call BUT if it was I'd hoist hurricane watches risk just to great with powerful hurricane nearing southern Florida.

I think those probabilities are a bit aggressive. NHC says 13% chance in Miami, 17% in Fort Lauderdale, and 21% in West Palm Beach. It was encouraging to see the 06Z GFS no longer trend westward. Perhaps we have reached some sort of model convergence. Regardless, residents in FL should remain vigilant.

Before its all said and done just rainy blustery here in dade and broward. Maybe if wind field expands but as off right now nothing more then what we deal with mon-sun with gusty winds with severe wx. There is still plenty of time for south Florida to be out of the cone.

It will take everything to be in place perfectly to carry Matt to 80W, so IMO Matt is more likely to have an E bias going forward... Just my opinion only!!

[blp]

Hmmm models did shift north overnight in terms of south Florida it's gonna be a tough call but Iam 50/50 if we get into hurricane conditions. Not my call BUT if it was I'd hoist hurricane watches risk just to great with powerful hurricane nearing southern Florida.

I think those probabilities are a bit aggressive. NHC says 13% chance in Miami, 17% in Fort Lauderdale, and 21% in West Palm Beach. It was encouraging to see the 06Z GFS no longer trend westward. Perhaps we have reached some sort of model convergence. Regardless, residents in FL should remain vigilant.

Before its all said and done just rainy blustery here in dade and broward. Maybe if wind field expands but as off right now nothing more then what we deal with mon-sun with gusty winds with severe wx. There is still plenty of time for south Florida to be out of the cone.

I honestly don't expect much more shifting maybe 10-30 miles right then back left. We are in the timeframe where you see less wild fluctuations like yesterday. I still think it is dangerously close. Remember how long it took Matt to start moving north and it even moved a little further west than progged. Any deviation like that I assume can make landfall in our area if it is that close.

[SFLcane]

I think those probabilities are a bit aggressive. NHC says 13% chance in Miami, 17% in Fort Lauderdale, and 21% in West Palm Beach. It was encouraging to see the 06Z GFS no longer trend westward. Perhaps we have reached some sort of model convergence. Regardless, residents in FL should remain vigilant.

Before its all said and done just rainy blustery here in dade and broward. Maybe if wind field expands but as off right now nothing more then what we deal with mon-sun with gusty winds with severe wx. There is still plenty of time for south Florida to be out of the cone.

I honestly don't expect much more shifting maybe 10-30 miles right then back left. We are in the timeframe where you see less wild fluctuations like yesterday. I still think it is dangerously close. Remember how long it took Matt to start moving north and it even moved a little further west than progged. Any deviation like that I assume can make landfall in our area if it is that close.

Sooo based on that do you issue a hurricane watch for eastcoast including dade and broward? tough call.
glance at 06z models if my eyes are deceiving me yet from staring at pc they shifted N. This is why I feel another shift away from dsde/broward coming at 11am. As I stated chance there we get out of cone in next 2-3 advisories.

[Emmett_Brown]

So, the 0z Euro shifted W again last night. According to some pro mets recent comments, the Euro has handled Matt's short term (as in under 72 hours) movements better than the other models.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/783277542216175616

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Before its all said and done just rainy blustery here in dade and broward. Maybe if wind field expands but as off right now nothing more then what we deal with mon-sun with gusty winds with severe wx. There is still plenty of time for south Florida to be out of the cone.

I honestly don't expect much more shifting maybe 10-30 miles right then back left. We are in the timeframe where you see less wild fluctuations like yesterday. I still think it is dangerously close. Remember how long it took Matt to start moving north and it even moved a little further west than progged. Any deviation like that I assume can make landfall in our area if it is that close.

Sooo based on that do you issue a hurricane watch for eastcoast including dade and broward? tough call.
glance at 06z models if my eyes are deceiving me yet from staring at pc they shifted N. This is why I feel another shift away from dsde/broward coming at 11am. As I stated chance there we get out of cone in next 2-3 advisories.

I don't see what a shift east by the NHC would be based on. The GFS went maybe a hair east and the Euro went maybe a hair left and the UKMET is close to onshore. The consensus hasn't moved an inch.

[NDG]

So, the 0z Euro shifted W again last night. According to some pro mets recent comments, the Euro has handled Matt's short term (as in under 72 hours) movements better than the other models.

That is correct, through 72 hrs its margin of error has been only 50 miles!! Today's 12z run is going to be very important to see how close it can get to central FL's coast.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I think we have another full day of model watching. Important to remember that:

1) Miami north is still in the cone.
2) A hurricane is not a point on a map. Winds extend hundreds of miles for, the center.

And I see the NAVGEM is still showing a SE Florida hit.

[SFLcane]

Yep 20-25 miles can be huge in determining if we get into the real nasty wx in SFL. Personally I feel better but as you stated lots model watching to do hope trend east continue.

[tolakram]

A lot of this discussion needs to be in the discussion thread and not here. Thanks.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/news6wkmg/status/783254812015988736

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well it sure looks like the Cape Fear Wilmington area is going to get a real storm with Mathew since both the Euro and GFS operational have as much a consensus as they could have at 120 hours. So I'll be doing the hurricane drill...FL looks to be highly variable and still likely to get the western side of the storm on the coast. The problem, if the landfall occurs as modeled i.e. NE quad tracking from Charleston up through OBX, is that we have not had a storm this intense do that before, that I know of. Even Hazel had a more direct approach. The storm surge of a CAT2 is where we cross from what we really know about damage to what we have not seen since Hazel. Fran was a CAT2 but came ashore at low tide and the storm surge took out 2 rows of houses on many barrier islands in NC. If timing holds, (GFS and ECMWF are pretty close) looking at the tide tables, we may get lucky and the peak of storm surge looks to fall at low tide in the Cape Fear area . Myrtle beach to the south and Morehead City to the north however may fare differently. The winds would blow into the inlets and estuaries and cause quite a bit of flooding. I know in my marina, a CAT2 surge ( 10-12 ft) above high tide would float the docks off the pilings and all the boats on blocks would float off. Many Many properties will be inundated. At low tide, there will a be lot of property damage, but it would not look like Fran or Hugo i.e. boats and debris washed miles inland. At this point the only upside is that its 120 hours out...

On the rain side we have had about 4-5 inches or more in the coastal areas, so like 1999 where Dennis preceded Floyd, a bunch more trees may come down that they would in a dry fall.

So the NEXT model I really want to see is the forecast surge...have to wait till Wed or Thursday for NHC to put that out. But I suspect we'll all be discussing that one soon. Scary to be talking about comparisons to Hazel , Fran, Hugo, and Floyd, but I hope we all over-prepare for this one. I would much rather be irritated at the inconvenience than to be posting damage photos..

Tide Table at Cape Fear Oct 8

[adam0983]

The ridge looks stronger today

[toad strangler]

12z hurricane plots shifted E a bit