ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

NNW Eyewall coming ashore now..

[Aric Dunn]

recon 30 min to center pass. just before landfall.

[tolakram]

Your post is maybe the strongest I've ever seen on this site. To just endlessly run models with little or no commentary, or worse, have model runs based on info that pro mets perhaps can't decipher leaves one feeing under nourished. That's what happened with this storm. I knew we were in trouble with the original out to sea forecast when no one could really explain why. The only sure thing was the consistent strength of the Atlantic Ridge. That's why I felt a Fl landfall (even Key West and affect West Coast) was likely. The public has been reduced to running endless models with not an inkling about what's really going on. Good post.

I don't think the "public" is watching model runs but rather listening to official sources. Enthusiasts may be but I'm still not sure what point you are trying to make here. The models are automated pen and paper done with equations, it's just been moved to something that can process things faster. Guessing about what a ridge will do or why leads to a bad forecast every time, that's why planes (and balloons) are out making upper air measurements all around Matthews path, so the data being fed into the models is improved.

Romantic notions of old pen and paper days negates just how bad some of the predictions were and the consequences of a bad forecast now that millions and millions more people live in harms way.

In my opinion, of course.

[SunnyThoughts]

NNW Eyewall coming ashore now..

I see AF mission is on its way...can they sample the eye if its over that eastern most tip of cuba...I guess since the relations between Cuba and US, we don't have to worry about airspace or things like that now?

[Soonercane]

NNW Eyewall coming ashore now..

Do you think it will be seriously disrupted by Cuba?

[NDG]

Come on people, 18z GFS says the 12z Euro is not that crazy.

18Z has a loop from Hatteras back down to Florida???

Nope, not even close.

But is trending to the right after the Carolinas.
You cannot say that the whole 12z Euro model was a bad run because it does that loop after 120h forecast, that range is always questionable. IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

NNW Eyewall coming ashore now..

I see AF mission is on its way...can they sample the eye if its over that eastern most tip of cuba...I guess since the relations between Cuba and US, we don't have to worry about airspace or things like that now?

they will get there just before the eye comes ashore.

[Aric Dunn]

NNW Eyewall coming ashore now..

Do you think it will be seriously disrupted by Cuba?

not likely all that much since it wont be over land very long.

[tolakram]

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/783432241196077056

[Alyono]

rainbands are training over Haiti. Afraid of what will happen now that the sun has went down. We likely will have more catastrophic flooding and mudslides tonight

[Hurricaneman]

NNW Eyewall coming ashore now..

Do you think it will be seriously disrupted by Cuba?

I'm not Aric but I do think some slight weakening followed by pretty good intensification 6 to12 hours later

[JaxGator]

Some stores in Northeast Florida are without water and a gas station near my Grandparents home in St. Augustine is out of regular gas. Also, that Euro run scared the crap out of me (the ensembles were indicators and the GFS and UKMET aren't good either.

[tropicwatch]

NNW Eyewall coming ashore now..

Looking like the entire eye might pass over the eastern tip of Cuba.

[JaxGator]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 3h3 hours ago  Andover, MA

12Z ECMWF Op a credible outcome for Hurricane #Matthew. Puts Vero Beach up through Jacksonville #FL at risk for significant impacts Fri-Sat

[tolakram]

This is the terrain where it's coming ashore.

[SFLcane]

Wow you gotta be on point not to includ dade in hurricane watch wouldn't be prudent Incase wind field expands or jog. Broward 20 min from Miami.

[La Sirena]

A question about preparedness: For those of us on the Southwest coast of Florida think Sarasota and points South... how far west of a shift would need to be forecast before major preps would need to happen. Think shutters; boarding etc. minor preps such as fuel, food, water are taken care of. The largest variable now seems to be time and we are running short.

Additionally- evacuation of the keys is now likely off the table as an executable option so EOC managers have a tough few days ahead if thing shifts more west and cuts the keys off from the mainland...

Have you seen your wind forecast? I personally couldn't answer that question for you but I know Joe C. mentioned earlier today about that area not being immune from some impacts, primarily wind gusts.

We really wouldn't have a choice in the Keys except to ride it out if there was some crazy change in path. Not my first choice lol but they don't feel it will head this way. Yes, it could catch people off guard here and make it deeper s/w but it's not what they're anticipating...so, we have preps and 90% of our shutters are already up anyway. I saw a good number of folks at the grocery store stocking up on some extra water and the shelves were about half empty. As most in the Keys, I'm sure they're taking it in stride.

Good luck! Hope someone has a better answer than me lol!

[Aric Dunn]

Also appears to have started moving slightly nnw.

[SFLcane]

Maybr Aric can answer my question.