ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[terstorm1012]

I get what everyone's saying about models and pens and paper.

I do think there's an art being lost...I think modeling is great and it's made for incredibly better forecasts, but it can be frustrating when someone just throws up a chart and doesn't tell me why a feature is doing what it is doing. Our pro-mets here are really good at explaining the why. This is why I only participate here

I also don't think they would have handled Hazel well at all had they existed in 1954. Then like now, timing of a trough is what took it inland rather than skirt the coast. That most models broadly had Matthew making a sharp north turn about where it eventually did way back when it was east of the Antilles sells them for me.

just my thoughts.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just thought I would share this little blurb from our local news media.

http://www.wect.com/story/33315748/uncw ... -emergency

I would point out the UNC-Wilmington was going to be on fall break this Thursday -Sunday anyway. Basically they are kicking out the few remaining stragglers, not cancelling class for 2 days. They are probably cancelling Wed night classes to encourage everyone to leave Wed, and not wait until Thursday.

You are entirely correct, and I should have mentioned it in my original post, but I was pressed for time.

[eastcoastFL]

Oh, okay. I wasn't clear. To me this was a really bad run and it looks like a malfunction. It (and the other British system UKMET) made what we call an outlier so far off the mark that you discard it, throw it out. What NHC apparently did was use it in blends up until the time when it goes crazy.

Thank God for humans! Still think that mets from 50 years ago, with their pens and charts, would have done better with this storm than our super sensitive-super complex Euro and GFS.

Well you're wrong but you can keep believing it. Meanwhile the brilliant mathematicians and meteorologists that have saved billions (trillions?) in property and costs and countless lives creating these "super sensitive" models will keep doing their thing.

I agree with you. It sounds nice to do things the old way but technology has become very advanced and we benefit from it. There is no way a human can even consider let alone process all the data these models do and become so accurate. Just look ay the leaps and bounds the NHC has improved over the years since they started using sophisticated models.

[jlauderdal]

i see twc is at the port in FLL..seems up the coast would be better but we will see

[SunnyThoughts]

storm chaser on twc right now live from cuba...waiting for the eye to pass over him..says it was VERY difficult to get there...had someone drive him to that eastern part of Cuba. Still has internet access and can't believe it .

Mike Theiss done with him for now but he is going to speak with them as often as he can.

[Michele B]

rainbands are training over Haiti. Afraid of what will happen now that the sun has went down. We likely will have more catastrophic flooding and mudslides tonight

Looking at all the local radars, even though everyone is now focusing on Cuba, it looks like Haiti is actually getting worse weather now than when the eye went over....

I have no words for how sad this makes me...

[ozonepete]

x

[ozonepete]

i see twc is at the port in FLL..seems up the coast would be better but we will see

They used to go closest to the eye. Now they go to the biggest media market closest to the eye.

[drewschmaltz]

Latest MIMIC

Wow what a bounce back after that Haiti hit, convection blew up almost immediately.

When's the last time a storm this organized entered the gulf stream? And what was the result? ... Does the NHC even believe their own intensity forecasts?

[Michele B]

I had said this days ago. It also goes along with a lot of stuff Joe Bastardi believes, too. That the 'models' are based on data from just a few years ago, for instance, and don't take into account what storms were doing 40, 50 years ago, who "moved like" these. Of course, it isn't like we have a lot of reliable data about the "ridging" and exact positions of things like Atlantic highs, etc.

Again: "Garbage in, garbage out."

The complaint from JB on the models does not really hold that much water. Dynamical fluid modeling systems barely and generally do not directly use statistical data to plot courses. That's like complaining about the CLP5 performance. Ludicrous.

Think about the scale of what needs to be modeled. You know like a butterfly effect but with poor resolution of air data. The fact that some models can tell you today with a 200 mile error or so (in some cases less) what a small 16nm low center will do is astounding and a great sign of human progress on forecasting earth weather. Do they still error of course and what worries is that generally to the right of the envelope in many cases.

Well said... we are not talking about MOS or SHIPS here, while some empirical tuning is done on things like parameterization schemes dynamical models generally are not "trained" on historical data in the literal sense.

So do you all NOT think Joe B's theory that studying decadal trends has merit, rather than just analyzing current conditions?

[ftolmsteen]

I was looking at Guantanimo's radar and looks like it jogged NW.

[GCANE]

Recon:
948mb extrap

[ozonepete]

So do you all NOT think Joe B's theory that studying decadal trends has merit, rather than just analyzing current conditions?

It's not his theory and we all believe in it. Other people proposed and practiced it well before him. Many models have quite a bit of climatology (expected results based on past history at a location) included in their processing. It's an old concept and used a lot.

[floridasun78]

ozonepete you think hurr watch could be extand to dade?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NASA/status/783429752417882113

[gatorcane]

Assuming Matthew hits Florida or comes close enough to cause serious effects, that would be 4 cyclones to hit Florida in 2016 alone...two tropical storms, one hurricane, and possibly one major hurricane. After going over 10 years with no hurricane impacts to what we are seeing now, big eye opener

[StormHunter72]

with all due respect...when is jb right????

[tigerz3030]

Is there any chance that this doesn't go north towards Jacksonville? Just asking and curious.

[Michele B]

with all due respect...when is jb right????

Well, I know my opinions don't count for a lot, but I like him!

[wzrgirl1]

Can someone help a novice. I have a new generator. What kind of gas and oil do I get. The gas is probably unleaded but what about the oil?